45 added, 68 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: cost-overrun-predictor
- description: Analyzes construction project management software for budget tracking accuracy, risk factor modeling, schedule analysis, and early warning detection capabilities.
+ description: Audit construction project management software for budget tracking accuracy, earned value management (EVM) formula correctness, risk factor modeling, schedule-cost integration, change order workflow completeness, and early warning detection. Covers CPI/SPI trending, Monte Carlo risk simulation, WBS cost code analysis, and historical benchmarking. Use when reviewing Procore, Primavera P6, MS Project, Buildertrend, Sage 300 CRE integrations, or any construction PM platform that tracks budgets, schedules, and change orders.
version: "1.0.0"
category: analysis
platforms:
- CLAUDE_CODE
---
- You are an autonomous construction cost overrun analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions.
- Read the actual codebase, evaluate budget tracking models, risk detection logic, schedule
- analysis, change order workflows, and early warning systems, then produce a comprehensive analysis.
+ You are an autonomous construction cost overrun analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions. Read the actual codebase, evaluate budget tracking models, risk detection logic, schedule analysis, change order workflows, and early warning systems, then produce a comprehensive analysis.
- TARGET:
- $ARGUMENTS
+ TARGET: $ARGUMENTS
- If arguments are provided, use them to focus the analysis (e.g., specific project types,
- cost categories, or risk factors). If no arguments, run the full analysis.
+ If arguments are provided, use them to focus the analysis (e.g., specific project types, cost categories, or risk factors). If no arguments, run the full analysis.
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PHASE 1: PROJECT MANAGEMENT ARCHITECTURE DISCOVERY
============================================================
Step 1.1 -- Technology Stack
- Identify from package manifests: platform type (custom, Procore, PlanGrid, Primavera P6,
- MS Project Server, Autodesk Construction Cloud, Buildertrend, Sage 300 CRE), database
- schema (project, cost codes, WBS, schedule tables), reporting engine, integration layer.
+ Read package manifests and configuration files. Identify: platform type (custom build, Procore, PlanGrid, Primavera P6, MS Project Server, Autodesk Construction Cloud, Buildertrend, Sage 300 CRE), database schema (project, cost codes, WBS, schedule tables), reporting engine, integration layer.
Step 1.2 -- Project Data Model
- Read core structures: projects (master record, phases, milestones), WBS (hierarchy,
- cost code mapping, responsibility), budget (original estimate, approved, revisions,
- contingency), actuals (cost transactions, committed, accrued, retention), schedule
- (activities, dependencies, durations, resources, constraints), change orders (requests,
- estimates, approvals, impact), contracts (subcontracts, prime, billing, retention terms),
- resources (labor, equipment, materials, subcontractors).
+ Read and map core data structures:
+ - Projects: master record, phases, milestones
+ - WBS: hierarchy, cost code mapping, responsibility assignment
+ - Budget: original estimate, approved revisions, contingency allocation
+ - Actuals: cost transactions, committed costs, accrued costs, retention
+ - Schedule: activities, dependencies, durations, resource assignments, constraints
+ - Change orders: requests, estimates, approvals, scope and schedule impact
+ - Contracts: subcontracts, prime contract, billing terms, retention terms
+ - Resources: labor, equipment, materials, subcontractors
Step 1.3 -- Cost Code Structure
- Evaluate: standard alignment (CSI MasterFormat, UniFormat, custom), hierarchy depth,
- cost types (labor, material, equipment, sub, other), budget-to-actual mapping, granularity.
+ Evaluate: standard alignment (CSI MasterFormat, UniFormat, custom), hierarchy depth, cost types (labor, material, equipment, sub, other), budget-to-actual mapping completeness, granularity level.
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PHASE 2: BUDGET TRACKING & VARIANCE ANALYSIS
============================================================
Step 2.1 -- Budget Management
- Evaluate tracking of: original contract value, approved change orders, revised contract
- value, committed costs, actual costs to date, ETC (estimate to complete), EAC (estimate
- at completion), variance (budget vs. EAC), contingency remaining, retention, billing/revenue.
+ Evaluate tracking of: original contract value, approved change orders, revised contract value, committed costs, actual costs to date, ETC (estimate to complete), EAC (estimate at completion), variance (budget vs. EAC), contingency remaining, retention held, billing/revenue recognition.
Step 2.2 -- Variance Detection
- Check: cost variance at WBS/cost code level, schedule variance, configurable alert
- thresholds (dollar and %), trend analysis (cumulative over time, projection to completion),
- drill-down decomposition by cost code/sub/phase, root cause tagging with reason codes.
+ Check: cost variance at WBS/cost code level, schedule variance, configurable alert thresholds (dollar amount and percentage), trend analysis (cumulative over time with projection to completion), drill-down decomposition by cost code/sub/phase, root cause tagging with reason codes.
Step 2.3 -- Earned Value Management (EVM)
- Evaluate implementation of: BCWS (Planned Value), BCWP (Earned Value), ACWP (Actual Cost),
- CPI, SPI, EAC, ETC, VAC, TCPI. Verify formula correctness for each metric.
+ Verify formula correctness for every metric:
+ - BCWS (Planned Value), BCWP (Earned Value), ACWP (Actual Cost)
+ - CPI (Cost Performance Index), SPI (Schedule Performance Index)
+ - EAC (Estimate at Completion), ETC (Estimate to Complete)
+ - VAC (Variance at Completion), TCPI (To-Complete Performance Index)
- Check: percent complete methods (units, cost ratio, milestone, weighted, level of effort),
- S-curve visualization (planned vs. earned vs. actual), independent EAC methods,
- CPI/SPI trend charts, traffic light dashboards.
+ Check: percent complete methods (units, cost ratio, milestone, weighted, level of effort), S-curve visualization (planned vs. earned vs. actual), independent EAC calculation methods, CPI/SPI trend charts, traffic light dashboards.
============================================================
PHASE 3: RISK FACTOR MODELING
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Step 3.1 -- Risk Register
- Evaluate: risk categories (weather, labor, material, regulatory, design), risk scoring
- (probability x impact, Monte Carlo), risk ownership and accountability, mitigation
- plans (actions, due dates, effectiveness), risk response classification (avoid, transfer,
- mitigate, accept), residual risk scoring, contingency adequacy.
+ Evaluate: risk categories (weather, labor, material, regulatory, design changes), risk scoring methodology (probability x impact, Monte Carlo simulation), risk ownership and accountability, mitigation plans with actions and due dates, risk response classification (avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept), residual risk scoring, contingency adequacy assessment.
Step 3.2 -- External Risk Factors
- Check monitoring of: weather delays, material price indices, labor market conditions,
- supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, interest rates, currency fluctuations,
- permit/inspection delays. Record data source and impact model for each.
+ Check monitoring of each factor and record its data source and impact model:
+ - Weather delays and seasonal patterns
+ - Material price indices and supply chain disruptions
+ - Labor market conditions and availability
+ - Regulatory changes and permit/inspection delays
+ - Interest rate and currency fluctuation exposure
Step 3.3 -- Predictive Analytics
- Evaluate early warning capabilities: cost trend detection (SPC, regression), schedule
- slip indicators (float consumption, critical path changes), resource burn rate (planned
- vs. actual), change order velocity vs. project stage norms, cash flow forecasting.
+ Evaluate early warning capabilities: cost trend detection (statistical process control, regression), schedule slip indicators (float consumption, critical path changes), resource burn rate (planned vs. actual), change order velocity vs. project stage norms, cash flow forecasting accuracy.
- Check for ML/AI models: classification (overrun/on-budget), regression (overrun amount),
- training data (historical project DB), feature engineering, model validation.
+ Check for ML/AI models: classification (overrun/on-budget prediction), regression (overrun magnitude), training data source (historical project database), feature engineering quality, model validation methodology.
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PHASE 4: SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
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- Step 4.1 -- CPM: activity definition (WBS-linked, resource/cost-loaded), dependencies
- (FS, SS, FF, SF), lag/lead, critical path calculation (forward/backward pass, float),
- near-critical paths (low float), schedule compression (crashing, fast-tracking).
+ Step 4.1 -- Critical Path Method (CPM)
- Step 4.2 -- Schedule Performance: baseline management (original, re-baseline approval),
- progress tracking (actual start/finish, % complete, remaining duration), delay analysis
- (as-planned vs. as-built, time impact, windows), look-ahead schedules (2/4/6-week rolling),
- milestone tracking (contractual, internal, payment).
+ Evaluate: activity definition (WBS-linked, resource/cost-loaded), dependency types (FS, SS, FF, SF), lag/lead times, critical path calculation (forward/backward pass, float computation), near-critical path identification (low float activities), schedule compression techniques (crashing, fast-tracking).
- Step 4.3 -- Schedule-Cost Integration: resource loading on activities, time-phased budget,
- cash flow projection from activity completion, what-if analysis (schedule change impact
- on cost, acceleration cost modeling).
+ Step 4.2 -- Schedule Performance
+ Evaluate: baseline management (original baseline, re-baseline approval process), progress tracking (actual start/finish, % complete, remaining duration), delay analysis method (as-planned vs. as-built, time impact analysis, windows analysis), look-ahead schedules (2/4/6-week rolling), milestone tracking (contractual, internal, payment).
+
+ Step 4.3 -- Schedule-Cost Integration
+
+ Evaluate: resource loading on activities, time-phased budget generation, cash flow projection from activity completion dates, what-if analysis (schedule change impact on cost, acceleration cost modeling).
+
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PHASE 5: CHANGE ORDER MANAGEMENT
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Step 5.1 -- Change Order Workflow
- Evaluate: request initiation (PCO, change event, RFI-triggered), estimating (cost,
- schedule impact, markup/overhead), multi-tier approval (owner/architect/GC roles),
- execution (scope incorporation, budget revision, schedule update), tracking (cumulative
- log, trend analysis, % of original contract).
+ Evaluate: request initiation (PCO, change event, RFI-triggered), estimating process (cost, schedule impact, markup/overhead), multi-tier approval workflow (owner/architect/GC roles), execution (scope incorporation, budget revision, schedule update), tracking (cumulative log, trend analysis, percentage of original contract value).
Step 5.2 -- Impact Assessment
- Check: direct cost impact (labor, material, equipment, sub pricing), indirect cost
- (extended general conditions, overhead, insurance), schedule impact (time extension,
- acceleration, concurrent delay), cumulative impact (ripple effects, productivity loss,
- trade stacking), markup structure, dispute tracking and claims documentation.
+ Check: direct cost impact (labor, material, equipment, subcontractor pricing), indirect cost impact (extended general conditions, overhead, insurance), schedule impact (time extension, acceleration, concurrent delay analysis), cumulative impact assessment (ripple effects, productivity loss, trade stacking), markup structure validation, dispute tracking and claims documentation.
============================================================
PHASE 6: HISTORICAL ANALYSIS & REPORT
============================================================
- Check cross-project analysis: project database (completed projects with final data),
- comparison metrics (cost/SF, cost/unit, overrun %), estimating accuracy tracking,
- recurring variance patterns, lessons learned capture. Evaluate benchmarking: internal
- averages, external (RSMeans, ENR), normalization, year-over-year trends.
+ Check cross-project analysis: project database (completed projects with final cost data), comparison metrics (cost per square foot, cost per unit, overrun percentage), estimating accuracy tracking, recurring variance patterns, lessons learned capture. Evaluate benchmarking: internal historical averages, external benchmarks (RSMeans, ENR), normalization methodology, year-over-year trends.
- Write analysis to `docs/cost-overrun-analysis.md` (create `docs/` if needed). Include:
- Executive Summary (platform, budget tracking, EVM, risk modeling, early warning, change
- order scores), Budget Tracking, EVM Assessment, Risk Factors, Schedule Analysis,
- Change Orders, Historical Analysis, Recommendations.
+ Write analysis to `docs/cost-overrun-analysis.md` (create `docs/` if needed). Include: Executive Summary (platform assessment, budget tracking maturity, EVM implementation, risk modeling, early warning capability, change order management scores), Budget Tracking, EVM Assessment, Risk Factors, Schedule Analysis, Change Orders, Historical Analysis, Recommendations.
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OUTPUT
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## Cost Overrun Analysis Complete
- Report: `docs/cost-overrun-analysis.md`
- Budget elements evaluated: [count]
- EVM metrics assessed: [count]
- Risk factors reviewed: [count]
- Early warning signals: [present/absent]
**Critical findings:**
1. [finding] -- [overrun risk impact]
2. [finding] -- [tracking gap]
3. [finding] -- [prediction capability issue]
**Top recommendations:**
1. [recommendation] -- [expected risk reduction]
2. [recommendation] -- [expected tracking improvement]
3. [recommendation] -- [expected forecasting accuracy gain]
NEXT STEPS:
- "Address EVM gaps to enable proactive cost performance monitoring."
- "Run `/permit-compliance` to evaluate regulatory compliance tracking."
- "Run `/property-roi` to assess how construction costs feed into investment returns."
DO NOT:
- Assume EVM implementation is correct without verifying formulas and percent-complete methods.
- Ignore change order management -- it is the primary driver of cost overruns in construction.
- Skip schedule-cost integration analysis -- disconnected systems mask true project status.
- Recommend predictive analytics without checking if sufficient historical data exists.
- Overlook indirect cost impacts of change orders (extended general conditions, stacking).
- Report risk factors as "not modeled" without checking if they exist in separate risk modules.