--- name: estimate description: > Estimate a backlog and fill a sprint against real team capacity: size each item with a stated basis, mark the confidence, add the risk buffer, subtract leave and meetings, and produce a sprint commitment the team can defend in planning. Use for story points, man-day estimates, sprint planning, capacity checks, and re-estimation after scope change. Triggers on: "estimate", "estimation", "story point", "man-day", "ước lượng", "estimate sprint", "sprint planning", "capacity", "見積", "工数", "how long will this take", "/atk:estimate". argument-hint: "[backlog-path|epic|ticket-ids] [--points|--days] [--sprint ] [--capacity ] [--out ]" --- # Estimation and Sprint Planning (`atk:estimate`) Produces an estimate whose numbers can be argued with, because every number carries the basis it came from: a comparable past item, a decomposition, or a stated unknown. Then turns the estimate into a sprint commitment that respects the capacity the team actually has. ## Scope Handles: sizing backlog items, recording the estimation basis and confidence, adding a risk buffer, computing net capacity from headcount and leave, selecting the sprint scope, and flagging items too large or too vague to estimate. Does NOT handle: writing the requirement (`atk:intake`), splitting work into tasks (`atk:breakdown`), or committing the team. The team commits; this skill prepares the numbers. ## Roles PM owns capacity and the commitment. Tech Lead and Dev own the sizes. QA sizes its own test effort as a separate line, never folded silently into a Dev number. See `shared/team-roles.md`. ## Invocation ```bash /atk:estimate # Estimate every item in a requirement or breakdown doc /atk:estimate # Pull items from the detected tracker /atk:estimate --points # Fibonacci story points (default) /atk:estimate --days # Person-days instead of points /atk:estimate --sprint S12 --capacity 34 # Plan a named sprint against known net capacity /atk:estimate --out # Override the default output path ``` ## Workflow ``` [1. Load items] -> [2. Find comparables] -> [3. Size] -> [4. Capacity] -> [5. Commit sheet] ``` Before step 1, read `.atk/overrides/estimate.md` when it exists, per rule 7 of `shared/team-roles.md`. ### 1. Load items Read each item and reject what cannot be estimated. An item with no acceptance criteria, or with an open question that changes its size, is marked `NEEDS INTAKE` and excluded rather than guessed. ### 2. Find comparables Search the repository, or every repository the work touches where the project has several, and the git history for similar past work: a similar endpoint, a similar migration, a similar screen. A comparable with a real elapsed time beats an opinion. Cite it. ### 3. Size Default scale is Fibonacci `1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13`. Anything at `13` or above must be split before it is committed. Each item records: size, basis, confidence (`HIGH`, `MEDIUM`, `LOW`), and the unknown that would move it. Separate Dev, QA, and review effort into their own lines. Apply the buffer explicitly as a visible line, not by inflating individual numbers. Default buffer is 15 percent for `HIGH` confidence work and 30 percent when any `LOW` confidence item is in scope. ### 4. Capacity Net capacity is headcount times sprint days, minus public holidays, leave, on-call, ceremonies, and support duty. Ask for the leave plan if it is not in the repository. State the focus factor used and why; do not hide it inside the arithmetic. ### 5. Commitment sheet Fill the sprint up to net capacity, in priority order, and list what did not fit. The overflow list is part of the output, not a leftover. ## Output Written to `docs/records/planning/estimate-.md` per `shared/artifact-paths.md`. Sections: front matter, scale and buffer policy, per-item estimate table with basis and confidence, capacity calculation showing every subtraction, sprint commitment, overflow, and estimation risks. Putting it where the team can see it is `atk:git`, which follows the artifact section of `shared/finalize-steps.md`: the branch, the commit, and the judgement about whether this one belongs in a pull request for its approver to read. Whether it is committed at all is the persistence group it falls into, per `shared/artifact-paths.md`. ## Ticket Follow `shared/ticket-adapters.md`. Estimates map to the tracker estimate field and the sprint field. Write back only after the team accepts the numbers. ## Definition of done - [ ] Every estimate states its basis and confidence. - [ ] No committed item is larger than 8 points or 3 person-days without a split. - [ ] QA and review effort appear as their own lines. - [ ] The capacity calculation shows leave, holidays, and ceremonies as explicit subtractions. - [ ] The overflow list exists, even when empty, so the cut is visible.