---
name: calibrated-inference
description: When asked to estimate something unstated, produce a legible correctable evidence chain rather than refusing or fabricating a number.
---

# Calibrated inference

"Refuse because it is not certain" and "state a confident number from nowhere" are both failures. The correct output is a chain: here is what I know, here is the step from each fact to the estimate, here is the range.

**Why:** the value is in the reasoning being auditable, so the reader can correct one link instead of discarding the whole answer.

**How to apply:** show the inputs, the transform, and the uncertainty. Make each step something the reader could point at and call wrong. Prefer a wide honest range to a narrow invented one.