---
name: alternative-analysis
description: 'Strategy: What-If Analysis, Alternative Futures, and Four Ways of Seeing
  — generate competing explanations and scenarios to challenge the dominant narrative.'
type: strategy
tactics:
- structured-attack-campaign
- adversarial-roleplay
dependencies:
  tactics:
  - adversarial-roleplay
  - structured-attack-campaign
  sops:
  - alternative-futures
  - attack-vector-generation
  - finding-aggregation
  - probe-execution
  - threat-surface-mapping
---

# Alternative Analysis Strategy

CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.

## Method

1. **alternative-futures** builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base
2. What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity
3. Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency
4. **probe-execution** tests each alternative against available evidence
5. Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives
6. **finding-aggregation** compares explanatory power across alternatives

## Budget Table

| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack vectors | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| Probing rounds | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| Personas | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Assumption checks | 5 | 10 | 20 |

## Orchestration

```
threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]
→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)
→ [for each alternative]:
    attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)
    → probe-execution (test alternative)
→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring
```

## Subagents

- threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)
- alternative-futures (scenario generation)
- attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)
- probe-execution (alternative testing)
- finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)

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## Available Tactics

可选,无固定顺序;最终叶子终为 sop。

| Tactic | 何时用 |
| --- | --- |
| adversarial-roleplay | Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation. |
| structured-attack-campaign | Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces. |

## Available SOPs

可选,无固定顺序;最终叶子终为 sop。

| SOP | 何时用 |
| --- | --- |
| alternative-futures | Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions. |
| attack-vector-generation | Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed. |
| finding-aggregation | Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report. |
| probe-execution | Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification. |
| threat-surface-mapping | Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions. |

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