git:20260615.7a62936 to git:20260615.48da2e0

---

name: assumption-excavation

description: Systematic extraction, challenge, and sensitivity analysis of assumptions

underlying a decision to identify load-bearing beliefs.

execution: tactic

dependencies:

sops:

- conclusion-sensitivity

- convergence-assumption-challenge

- convergence-assumption-extraction

---

# Assumption Excavation

A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.

## Stages

1. **Assumption Extraction** — Systematically surface all assumptions underlying the decision, with confidence levels

2. **Assumption Challenge** — For each assumption, construct the strongest counter-argument and identify alternatives

3. **Conclusion Sensitivity** — Map which assumptions, if wrong, would change the conclusion

## Available SOPs

| SOP | Phase | Purpose |

|-----|-------|---------|

| assumption-extraction | Extract | Surface hidden assumptions with confidence |

| assumption-challenge | Challenge | Attack each assumption adversarially |

| conclusion-sensitivity | Sensitivity | Map load-bearing assumptions |

## Execution Guidance

- Extract minimum 5 assumptions per decision

- Challenge ALL assumptions, not just obvious ones

- Confidence levels: HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), LOW (<50%)

- Critical assumption = conclusion changes if assumption is wrong

- Focus mitigation efforts on critical + low-confidence assumptions

## Minimum Yield

- >= 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels

- Challenge argument for each assumption

- Alternative assumption for each (what if the opposite is true?)

- Sensitivity map showing which assumptions are critical

- List of critical assumptions requiring mitigation