git:20260614.5208b4c to git:20260615.1734111

24 added, 27 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: reverse-dcf

multi_ticker_semantics: target_with_optional_peers

description: Reverse DCF valuation, implied growth rate, market expectations analysis, reverse discounted cash flow, implied valuation assumptions, market-implied projections, DCF sanity check

temporal_scope:

default_quarters: 4

max_quarters: 12

description: "Current price input; historical data for comparison"

allowed_tools:

- search_xbrl_facts

- get_realtime_quote

- search_earnings_calendar

retrieval_scope: structured_only

min_tool_diversity: 3

---

# Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Expectations

Starts from the current stock price and solves backward: "What growth rate, margin, or WACC does the market currently price in?" Answers: "Is the market too optimistic or too pessimistic about {ticker}?" This is a sanity-check tool used by professional analysts to test whether consensus assumptions are already reflected in the stock price.

## Preflight

- !curl -s -o /dev/null -w "%{http_code}" --max-time 2 https://mcp.agentii.ai/mcp/health 2>/dev/null || echo "UNREACHABLE"

- **Ticker resolution ** and **Workspace style.md override check ** apply. **`get_realtime_quote` availability **: If not deployed, prompt user for current stock price — required input for reverse DCF.

+ Run the canonical pre-flight sequence — MCP health probe, ticker resolution, workspace `style.md` override, memory load, and coverage check. See `contracts/preflight.md`.

- **Agent Call Tracing**: The first tool you call will return a `_run_id` in its result. On every subsequent tool call, include HTTP header `X-Agentii-Trace: agent={skill_name}; parent={caller_name}; instance={instance_label}`. The MCP server will inject run_id, depth, and user_id automatically. When spawning parallel sub-agents of the same type, assign each a unique instance label (e.g., equity-research-1, equity-research-2). See `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md` for the full contract.

+ Include the `X-Agentii-Trace` header on every tool call per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`.

## Triggers

- reverse DCF {ticker}

- implied growth rate {ticker}

- what does the market price in {ticker}

- market-implied valuation {ticker}

- reverse discounted cash flow {ticker}

- is {ticker} priced for perfection

- market expectations DCF {ticker}

- sanity check valuation {ticker}

- implied assumptions {ticker}

- DCF reverse engineer {ticker}

## Defaults

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| projection_years | 5 | Explicit forecast period |

| solve_for | growth_rate | growth_rate, terminal_margin, or wacc |

| terminal_growth | 2.5% | Long-term GDP-like growth rate |

| compare_to | consensus | Compare implied to consensus estimates |

## Methodology

### Retrieval Scope

`structured_only` — Reverse DCF uses current price + XBRL financials + consensus estimates.

### Retrieval Strategy

- Follows the retrieval strategy decision tree in `retrieval.md`. Primary branch: **(a) Structured Data Query**. Resolve the canonical ticker first (exact → fuzzy alias → share-class) before any data call.

+ See `contracts/retrieval.md` for the canonical decision tree; skill-specific retrieval detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

### Temporal Scope

Default lookback: 4 fiscal quarter(s); maximum: 12. The default balances recency against the trend window this analysis requires.

### Tool Allowlist

Per frontmatter `allowed_tools`:

- `search_xbrl_facts` — primary structured financial facts (is_primary default)

- `get_realtime_quote` — latest market price for valuation cross-checks

- `search_earnings_calendar` — EPS actual/estimate/surprise + report dates

### Protocol

- 1. **Inputs**: current stock price from `get_realtime_quote(ticker)`. Shares outstanding and latest financials from `search_xbrl_facts`.

- 2. **Set up DCF model**: standard DCF with UFCF = EBIT × (1-T) + D&A - Capex - ΔWC. Terminal value via Gordon Growth Model.

- 3. **Solve for implied growth rate**: iterate growth rate until DCF fair value = current market price (within 1% tolerance).

- 4. **Solve for implied terminal margin**: if solving for margin, iterate terminal EBITDA/FCF margin instead.

- 5. **Solve for implied WACC**: if solving for WACC, iterate WACC until DCF = market price (reveals market-implied discount rate).

- 6. **Compare to benchmarks**:

- - Implied growth vs. consensus estimates (from `search_earnings_calendar`)

- - Implied growth vs. historical CAGR (from XBRL)

- - Implied margin vs. current margin + historical trend

- - Implied WACC vs. CAPM-derived WACC

- 7. **Assessment**: flag when market prices in >20% above consensus (potentially overvalued) or >20% below consensus (potentially undervalued).

- 8. **Output**: per with YAML frontmatter .

+ Step-by-step execution detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

## Output File

- Write to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_reverse-dcf_implied-expectations.md` .

+ Write the final deliverable to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_reverse-dcf_{affix}.md`.

## Output Structure

- 1. **Executive Summary** — implied growth rate, comparison to consensus, market sentiment assessment

- 2. **Inputs** — current price, shares outstanding, current financials, WACC assumptions

- 3. **Implied Growth Rate** — solved growth rate, comparison to consensus LTG and historical CAGR

- 4. **Implied Terminal Margin** — solved terminal EBITDA/FCF margin vs. current and historical margins

- 5. **Market Expectation Assessment** — is the market pricing in aggressive (>20% above consensus), reasonable (within ±20%), or pessimistic (>20% below consensus) assumptions?

- 6. **Sensitivity** — implied growth at varying WACC (±1%, ±2%)

- 7. **Coverage Gaps & Citations**

+ The deliverable is a structured markdown report written to the path in `## Output File`. Full section-by-section template (headings, tables, and field definitions) lives in `references/output-structure.md`. Required elements:

- **Citation density**: ≥1 citation per 200 words. **Citation link format ** and **agentii.md append ** apply.

+ 1. **Executive Summary** — headline conclusions (≤200 words).

+ 2. **Core analysis sections** — per this skill's methodology and analyst modes.

+ 3. **Data classification** — tag findings `[FACT]` / `[DEDUCTED]` / `[VIEW]` per `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ 4. **Coverage Gaps & Citations** — inline `/v/` citations are PRIMARY (immediately after each fact); the bottom **Citations** section is a non-duplicative roll-up index.

+ 5. **Output frontmatter** — emit the FR-090 structured block per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

+ **Citations & memory**: follow `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link; a bottom **Citations** section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable `/v/` URLs; and append the run to `agentii.md` per `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

## Validation Gates

1. **Convergence**: DCF must converge to market price within 1% within 50 iterations. *If failed*: flag "DCF does not converge — extreme assumptions required."

2. **Economic plausibility**: implied growth rate must be between -10% and +50%. *If failed*: flag "Implied growth outside economically plausible range — market may be pricing non-fundamental factors."

+ ## Memory & Snapshot

+ - **Memory load** (pre-flight): load prior workspace context for the ticker before retrieval — see `contracts/memory-load.md`.

+ - **Structured output frontmatter**: emit the FR-090 block (`key_metrics`, `conclusions`, `facts_count`, `deducted_count`, `views_count`, `citation_count`) per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

+ - **Snapshot synthesis**: after writing the deliverable, update the two-tier snapshot and classify findings as `[FACT]`/`[DEDUCTED]`/`[VIEW]` — see `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ - **Session archival**: record the run under `sessions/{YYYY-MM-DD}/` and update `sessions/INDEX.md` per `contracts/session-format.md`.

+ ## Final Summary (TUI)

+ End the closing chat reply with a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts), each a clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link, so the user can cmd+click straight to the exact SEC page. See `contracts/citation-and-memory.md`.

## Error Handling

| Failure Mode | Action | User-Facing Message |

|-------------|--------|---------------------|

| No price data | Halt | "Current stock price unavailable for {ticker}." |

| Negative FCF | Flag — reverse DCF unreliable | "Negative free cash flow — reverse DCF may produce nonsensical results." |

| Non-convergence | Flag extreme assumptions required | "Reverse DCF did not converge within 50 iterations — market may be pricing extreme scenarios." |