Immutable. This exact content is served forever at /api/v1/blob/a28ff9486b4287f1.
---
name: kelly-behavior-predict
description: Busabase App-in-Skill dashboard over a fixed, deterministic mock user-behavior funnel dataset (browse → search → compare → booking attempt/abandon → complete) for a generic consumer booking product. Use when the user invokes $kelly-behavior-predict or /kelly-behavior-predict, wants to review funnel drop-off, per-segment predicted next actions, or backtest a rule-based "predicted next action" heuristic against a mock historical sample. Fully deterministic mock data and a hand-recomputable rule — never a real ML/LLM model, never a live system.
metadata:
category: growth
tags:
- risk:sandbox
- surface:busabase
---
# Predictive Recommendation Analytics Desk
## Overview
Use this skill as a Busabase-backed analytics dashboard for a **generic,
brand-free** consumer booking/e-commerce product. It aggregates a fully
deterministic mock user-behavior sample — 100 sessions across 5 session
archetypes ("segments") — into a funnel drop-off view, a rule-based
"predicted next action" per segment, and a prediction-accuracy backtest.
Default behavior is AirApp-first. Unless the user explicitly asks only for
explanation, ensure the mock sample exists (run the seed script below if the
`sessions` Base is empty) and give the user the clickable AirApp URL (or the
local preview URL when local preview is explicitly requested). Use chat-only
mode only when the user says "chat only", "no UI", "纯聊天", "不要打开 UI", or
similar.
This is primarily a **dashboard** app type (read-mostly, no approval
lifecycle). It carries exactly one narrow human-review surface: marking a
segment's prediction rule "trusted" or "needs recalibration" with a note,
written directly onto that segment's own Busabase record. That review never
edits the rule, the dataset, or any live system — it is a review record only.
## App UI Screenshots
<table>
<tr>
<td width="50%"><img src="assets/screenshots/overview.webp" alt="Analytics Desk overview"></td>
<td width="50%"><img src="assets/screenshots/funnel.webp" alt="Analytics Desk segments"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Overview</strong><br>Overall funnel drop-off (browse → search → compare → booking attempt → complete), total sessions, overall backtest accuracy, and how many segments still need a trust decision.</td>
<td><strong>Segments</strong><br>Per-segment cards: session count, dominant predicted action, backtest accuracy/F1, and the current trusted / needs-recalibration badge.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="50%"><img src="assets/screenshots/segment-detail.webp" alt="Analytics Desk segment detail"></td>
<td width="50%"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Segment detail</strong><br>Segment funnel, predicted-action distribution, sample sessions (predicted vs. mock actual), the matched/unmatched rule triggers that drove the prediction, and the trusted / needs-recalibration review panel.</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</table>
## Mandatory Dependencies
1. Read and follow `$kelly-app-skill-creator` for product behavior, visual quality, responsive layout, and the complete canonical `app/` artifact.
2. Read and follow `$busabase` for connection, target Space, node discovery, ChangeRequests, review, and merge behavior.
3. Read and follow `$busabase-app-creator` for resource modeling, AirApp runtime limits, security, validation, and deployment.
If a dependency is unavailable, preserve this skill's local artifact and product contracts, stop before the unavailable Busabase operation, and report the exact missing dependency. Do not invent a second data backend.
## Boundary
- Fully mock, fully deterministic. There is no real user data, no live
product integration, and no real ML/LLM call anywhere in this skill —
every "predicted next action" comes from a fixed if/else rule in
`app/app/js/behavior-model.js` (`evaluateRules()`/`predictNextAction()`).
- The AirApp reads and writes its own three Busabase Bases only.
- The one human action (mark trusted / needs recalibration + note) writes
the `segments` Base's own row for that segment only. It never changes the
rule, regenerates the sample, or triggers any other system.
- Do not name any real company, brand, or product. Keep the product profile
generic ("Example Booking Co.", overridable via the `settings` Base).
## Busabase Resources
Three Bases under one application Folder (`kelly-behavior-predict`), declared
in `app/app/js/config.js` and `app/resource-map.json`:
- `sessions`: the fixed mock sample — 100 rows across 5 segments (raw
behavior features, the funnel stage reached, and the seeded mock
"actual" next action used only to make the backtest non-trivial).
`predicted_action`/rule triggers are never stored — they are recomputed
client-side from the raw features on every read.
- `segments`: one row per segment (5 rows) — the human review verdict
(`decision-status`/`decision-note`/`decided-at`) on that segment's
prediction rule, written directly onto the segment's own record.
- `settings`: one row (`kind = "config"`) holding the sanitized product
profile (name, vertical, target precision) and the dataset seed.
Resources provision lazily through an idempotent Busabase ChangeRequest the
first time the app runs in a Space; see `references/ui-schema.md` for exact
field shapes.
## First Run And Onboarding
On invocation, check the `sessions` Base. If it's empty, run the trusted seed
script to generate the fixed mock sample:
```bash
node skills/kelly-behavior-predict/scripts/generate_batch.mjs --apply
```
There are no credentials to collect — this skill never calls an external
system, so onboarding is just the optional product-profile labels below
(defaults apply if omitted).
## Local App
Default behavior is AirApp-first — give the user the clickable AirApp URL.
Start `pnpm --dir app dev` only when local preview/debugging is explicitly
requested.
Required app views (hash routes):
- `#/overview`: overall funnel drop-off, total sessions, overall backtest
accuracy, and how many segments still need a trust decision.
- `#/segments`: per-segment cards (funnel size, dominant predicted action,
backtest accuracy/F1, decision badge).
- `#/segments/<id>`: segment detail — funnel, predicted-action distribution,
sample sessions (predicted vs. actual), rule triggers, and the decision
panel (mark trusted / needs recalibration + note). Decisions write
directly onto the segment record through `busabase-sdk`.
- `#/backtest`: prediction-accuracy backtest — overall and per-segment
precision/recall/F1 tables.
- `#/settings`: sanitized config summary — data provider, product profile,
target-precision note, and dataset seed.
## Demo Mode
- `?demo=1` regenerates the same fixed mock sample in the browser (never
reads or writes Busabase) at the Overview — there is no live data source
to demo *against*, so demo mode is always the same deterministic sample
the seed script writes.
- `?demo=segments`, `?demo=backtest`, and `?demo=detail` select a starting
route for screenshots/docs (segments grid, backtest view, or the
`price_sensitive_browser` detail pane).
- `lang=en` or `lang=zh` forces UI chrome language for screenshots.
## Workflow
1. `node scripts/generate_batch.mjs --apply` (dry run without `--apply`)
writes the fixed 100-session mock sample to the `sessions` Base and
ensures a `segments` row exists for every segment (never resetting an
existing decision) — run it once at setup, and again to refresh the
`settings` product-profile row.
2. Open the app. **Overview** shows the overall funnel and backtest accuracy;
**Segments** lists every segment with its dominant predicted action and
current trust badge.
3. For each segment, open the detail view, review the funnel, the
predicted-action distribution, the sample sessions (predicted vs. mock
actual), and the exact rule triggers, then record `Mark trusted` or
`Needs recalibration` with a note — written straight onto the segment
record.
Read `references/ui-schema.md` before editing the app, scripts, or
`app/app/js/behavior-model.js`.
## The Rule (not a model)
`app/app/js/behavior-model.js` documents and implements the entire
prediction rule: a short, ordered list of if/else triggers over four mock
session signals (`cart_abandon_count`, `price_check_count`,
`days_since_last_visit`, `session_length`) plus `reached_stage`. The first
matching trigger determines `predicted_action`; the segment detail view
shows every trigger and whether it matched, so "why this prediction" is
always inspectable. The same module's `computeBacktest()` computes a
standard precision/recall/F1 confusion-matrix summary comparing
`predicted_action` against a seeded mock `actual_action` per session — this
is what the Backtest view renders, at both the overall and per-segment level.
## Safety
- Deterministic mock rule and sample only — never present them as a real
ML/LLM prediction to the user; keep `app/app/js/behavior-model.js` the
single source of truth for every prediction shown.
- Do not invent real user data or a real ML/LLM call.
- The decision panel is a review record only — it must never regenerate the
sample, edit the rule, or reach any external system.
## Useful Commands
```bash
node skills/kelly-behavior-predict/scripts/generate_batch.mjs --apply
pnpm --dir skills/kelly-behavior-predict/app dev
```
## Execution reports
Re-read the active provider's decisions immediately before any approved execution. Record each concrete operation, target, status, timestamp, and error in the provider-backed execution report; keep app actions local-only.