trend-to-microbet git:20260905.a694da1A

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name: trend-to-microbet
description: "Turn a fast-moving AI, product, creator, career, or technology trend into a small evidence-producing bet instead of a vague FOMO reaction. Use when the user says something is suddenly hot, wonders whether to chase a new model/platform/agent/skill/plugin, or wants a 48-hour to 7-day experiment with a clear upside, effort cap, proof metric, and stop rule."
---

# Trend to Microbet

Do not answer hype with hype. Convert the trend into a bounded experiment.

## Workflow

1. **Name the trend precisely.** Separate the product, capability, ecosystem, and social buzz.
2. **Verify recency when tools allow.** Prefer official release notes plus at least one independent community or adoption signal. If live web access is unavailable, mark trend strength as unverified.
3. **Check personal leverage.** What assets already exist: code, audience, domain knowledge, data, relationships, infrastructure, writing, distribution, or a half-built prototype?
4. **Score the opportunity** using `references/microbet-scorecard.md`.
5. **Design the smallest public or real-world test.** Default horizon: 48 hours to 7 days. Cap effort before building.
6. **Choose one proof metric before work starts.** Examples: external installs, completed tasks, user replies, repeat use, accepted demo, qualified leads, benchmark delta, or a real conversation that changes the decision.
7. **Define stop / iterate / double-down rules.** A microbet without a stop rule becomes a new distraction.
8. **Publish or test where the target users already are.** Do not build a new community merely to validate the idea.
9. **Review the result, not the excitement.** Update the opportunity score after evidence arrives.

## Output

Return:

- Trend claim and verification status
- Why it may matter
- Existing leverage
- 48h–7d microbet
- Effort cap
- Primary proof metric
- Stop / iterate / double-down rule
- What not to do yet

Do not present social-media excitement, stars, or press coverage as proof that the user's own bet will work.