git:20260615.bd8fa91 to git:20260616.b2b0cde

---

name: alternative-analysis

description: 'Strategy: What-If Analysis, Alternative Futures, and Four Ways of Seeing

— generate competing explanations and scenarios to challenge the dominant narrative.'

type: strategy

tactics:

- structured-attack-campaign

- adversarial-roleplay

dependencies:

tactics:

- adversarial-roleplay

- structured-attack-campaign

sops:

- alternative-futures

- attack-vector-generation

- finding-aggregation

- probe-execution

- threat-surface-mapping

---

# Alternative Analysis Strategy

CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.

## Method

1. **alternative-futures** builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base

2. What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity

3. Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency

4. **probe-execution** tests each alternative against available evidence

5. Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives

6. **finding-aggregation** compares explanatory power across alternatives

## Budget Table

| Parameter | S | M | L |

|---|---|---|---|

| Attack vectors | 5 | 12 | 20 |

| Probing rounds | 3 | 6 | 10 |

| Personas | 2 | 4 | 6 |

| Assumption checks | 5 | 10 | 20 |

## Orchestration

```

threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]

→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)

→ [for each alternative]:

attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)

→ probe-execution (test alternative)

→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring

```

## Subagents

- threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)

- alternative-futures (scenario generation)

- attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)

- probe-execution (alternative testing)

- finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)

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## Available Tactics

| --- | --- |

| adversarial-roleplay | Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation. |

| structured-attack-campaign | Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces. |

## Available SOPs

| --- | --- |

| alternative-futures | Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions. |

| attack-vector-generation | Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed. |

| finding-aggregation | Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report. |

| probe-execution | Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification. |

| threat-surface-mapping | Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions. |

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