assumption-stress-test · diff
git:20260616.b2b0cde to git:20260923.cbc38aa
34 added, 53 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: assumption-stress-test
- description: Systematic stress testing of assumptions — surface, classify by vulnerability,
- attack, assess fragility. Combines assumption-surfacing (shared), abp-vulnerability-classification,
- and clr-validation SOPs.
- execution: tactic
- dependencies:
- sops:
- - abp-vulnerability-classification
- - clr-validation
- - deep-insight-assumption-surfacing
- - deep-insight-paper-research
+ description: "Surface load-bearing assumptions, classify vulnerability, challenge or perturb them, and re-check causal logic."
---
- # Assumption Stress Test
-
- Systematically stress-test assumptions to find dangerous ones.
-
- ## Operations
-
- - assumption-surfacing (shared) — extract all implicit assumptions
- - abp-vulnerability-classification — classify by load-bearing × vulnerable
- - clr-validation — validate causal logic of critical assumptions
-
- ## Available SOPs
-
- **Shared:** assumption-surfacing
- **Subagent:** abp-vulnerability-classification, clr-validation
- **Import:** paper-research
-
- ## Execution Guidance
-
- Surface all assumptions (shared SOP). Classify each by load-bearing × vulnerable matrix. Validate causal logic of most critical assumptions (High-Load × High-Vulnerable quadrant).
-
- ## Minimum Yield
-
- ```
- <HARD-GATE>
- - assumptions surfaced: >= 5
- - vulnerability classifications: >= 5
- - CLR validations on critical assumptions: >= 2
- - dangerous assumptions identified: >= 1
- </HARD-GATE>
+ # assumption-stress-test
+ ## Purpose
+ Expose load-bearing assumptions, classify their vulnerability, perturb them, and re-check causal validity.
+ ## Input contract
+ ```yaml
+ required: [claim_or_model, assumptions]
+ optional: [evidence, causal_graph, perturbation_bounds]
+ constraints: [each assumption must be traceable to a claim or causal link]
```
-
- <!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->
-
- ## Available SOPs
-
- Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
-
- | SOP | When to use |
- | --- | --- |
- | abp-vulnerability-classification | Classify assumptions on 2 axes — load-bearing (how much conclusion depends on it) × vulnerable (how likely to be false). Focuses attention on High-Load × High-Vulnerable quadrant. |
- | clr-validation | Apply Goldratt's 8 Categories of Legitimate Reservation to validate causal claims. Tests clarity, existence, sufficiency, and logical integrity. |
- | deep-insight-assumption-surfacing | Systematically extract implicit assumptions from methods, frameworks, or arguments. Identifies what is taken for granted without explicit justification. |
- | deep-insight-paper-research | Full-text paper reading via three-pass Keshav method. Import of literature-engine/literature-research skill. Authoritative source for claims about paper content. |
+ ## Execution protocol
+ Do not perform called SOP operations inline; each loaded SOP owns its contract and thresholds.
- <!-- END available-tables (generated) -->
+ 1. You MUST load skill `surface-assumptions` to surface load-bearing assumptions.
+ 2. You MUST load skill `classify-assumption-vulnerability` to classify their vulnerability.
+ 3. You MUST load skill `challenge-assumption` to challenge each material assumption.
+ 4. You MUST load skill `apply-perturbation` to apply bounded perturbations.
+ 5. You MUST load skill `validate-causal-link` to re-check affected causal links.
+ If the surviving result requires broader model and scaling variants, consider `robustness-analysis` as the next tactic.
+ Deviation: omit perturbation only when the assumption is purely definitional; still record and classify it.
+ ## Output contract
+ ```yaml
+ produces: [assumption_register, vulnerability_map, perturbation_results, causal_recheck]
+ delta_fields: [findings, assumption_updates, uncertainties, decisions, open_questions]
+ ```
+ ## Thresholds and quality gates
+ - B: all load-bearing assumptions are classified; every challenged assumption has a perturbation or explicit non-perturbability reason; causal links are rechecked.
+ ## Failure and counterexamples
+ Do not call a model robust when an untested high-vulnerability assumption carries the conclusion or when perturbation bounds are unstated.
+ ## Provenance map
+ - `assumption-audit`, `assumption-stress-test`, `assumption-criticality`, `assumption-perturbation`: resolved/concept according to exact v3 lookup; no near-name substitution.
+ - Status: `assumption-audit`, `assumption-stress-test`, `assumption-criticality` resolved; `assumption-perturbation` concept (only package-prefixed variants found).
+ ## Preserved source criteria ledger
+ - Preserve assumption surfacing, vulnerability classification, perturbation, and causal-link validation.
+ ## Context checkpoint / Delta notes
+ Append changed assumptions, perturbation deltas, causal failures, and unresolved questions.