git:20260127.930cd97 to git:20260210.cd0fc2e

---

name: edge

description: "Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources"

emoji: "🎯"

---

# Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

## Commands

### Scan for Edge

```

/edge

/edge politics

/edge fed

```

### Compare Specific Market

```

```

### Kelly Calculator

```

```

## Data Sources

### Political

- **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models

- **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages

- **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books

- **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices

### Economic

- **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities

- **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts

- **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations

### Sports

- **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators

- **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings

- **Historical Models** - ELO ratings

## Examples

User: "Find me some edge"

→ Scan markets where price differs >10% from models

→ Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?"

→ Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities

→ Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?"

→ Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

## Output Format

```

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"

Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources:

• CME FedWatch: 41%

• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%

• Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢

Edge: +15¢ (+65%)

Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion:

• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll

• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll

```