git:20260224.5f0f21a to git:20260619.944b979

- description: Comprehensive stock research by chaining multiple analysis skills into a unified investment thesis

- Run a complete, structured research process for a single stock by systematically applying multiple InvestSkill analysis modules and synthesizing them into a unified investment thesis with a composite score.

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- ## Overview

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- `/research-bundle` is a meta-skill that orchestrates all other InvestSkill analysis modules in a defined sequence. Rather than running individual skills in isolation, this skill chains them together so that earlier-phase outputs inform later-phase assumptions. The result is a single, comprehensive investment thesis document with a composite score, clearly presented bull and bear cases, and actionable entry/exit strategy.

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- Use this skill when you need final due diligence before initiating or sizing a position, or when you want a structured, repeatable research process across multiple stocks.

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- ## Research Process (Phases)

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- ### Phase 1: Business & Competitive Foundation

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- Establish the qualitative and quantitative foundation for the investment thesis before attempting valuation.

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- - Run: `/competitor-analysis [TICKER]` — Understand moat, competitive position, industry dynamics, Porter's Five Forces, and pricing power

- - Run: `/fundamental-analysis [TICKER]` — Deep financial statement analysis covering income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and business quality metrics

- - Output: **Business Quality Assessment (1–10 score)**

- - Score reflects durability of competitive advantages, financial health, and consistency of returns

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- ### Phase 2: Valuation

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- Determine what the business is worth using both intrinsic and relative methods.

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- - Run: `/dcf-valuation [TICKER]` — Intrinsic value estimate using discounted cash flow modeling with three scenarios (Bull/Base/Bear)

- - Run: `/stock-eval [TICKER]` — Relative valuation vs. peers using P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/FCF, and sector benchmarks

- - Output: **Valuation Assessment (premium/discount to intrinsic value %)**

- - Combines DCF intrinsic value and relative valuation into a single price target range

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- ### Phase 3: Market Signals

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- Understand what sophisticated market participants are doing with the stock.

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- - Run: `/insider-trading [TICKER]` — Insider sentiment, transaction patterns, and Form 4 analysis

- - Run: `/institutional-ownership [TICKER]` — Smart money positioning, 13F changes, concentration, and flow trends

- - Run: `/earnings-call-analysis [TICKER]` — Management tone, guidance quality, language analysis, and forward signals

- - Output: **Market Signal Score (1–10)**

- - High score = strong insider buying, institutional accumulation, and positive management tone

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- ### Phase 4: Technical Timing

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- Identify the current technical setup to optimize entry timing relative to the fundamental thesis.

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- - Run: `/technical-analysis [TICKER] --chart` — Entry timing, trend structure, support/resistance, volume patterns, and momentum indicators

- - Output: **Technical Setup Quality (Strong / Moderate / Weak)**

- - Strong = price in uptrend, near support, momentum positive

- - Weak = downtrend, extended from support, negative momentum

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- ### Phase 5: Risk Assessment

- Quantify downside risks and understand positioning pressure.

- - Run: `/short-interest [TICKER]` — Short positioning, days-to-cover, short squeeze potential, and bearish thesis signals

- - Optional: `/options-analysis [TICKER]` — Options market signals including implied volatility, put/call ratios, and options flow

- - Output: **Risk Profile (Low / Medium / High)**

- - High short interest + high IV + concentrated bearish options flow = High risk profile

- ## Composite Scoring Framework

- Research Bundle Score = Weighted Composite

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- Business Quality 25% [score from competitor + fundamental]

- Valuation 25% [score from DCF + stock-eval]

- Composite Interpretation:

- 8.0–10.0 → Strong Buy (all signals aligned)

- 6.5–7.9 → Buy (most signals positive)

- 5.0–6.4 → Hold/Watchlist (mixed signals)

- 3.5–4.9 → Underweight (mostly negative signals)

- 0.0–3.4 → Sell/Avoid (strong negative signals)

- Sub-score derivation:

- - Business Quality (0–10): Average of `/competitor-analysis` moat score and `/fundamental-analysis` financial strength score

- - Valuation (0–10): 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = at fair value; 0 = extremely overvalued

- - Market Signals (0–10): Weighted average of insider, institutional, and earnings call scores

- - Technical Setup (0–10): Qualitative conversion — Strong=8–10, Moderate=4–7, Weak=0–3

- - Risk Profile (0–10): Inverse of risk — Low risk = high score (8–10), High risk = low score (0–3)

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- ## Conflict Resolution

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- When signals conflict across skills, apply these rules:

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- - **Fundamental overrides technical**: Business quality and intrinsic value take precedence over short-term price action. A great business at fair value with weak technicals is still a good investment.

- - **Consensus overrides outlier**: When 4 of 5 skills agree on direction, do not let the single outlier dominate the composite score. Document the outlier and its reasoning.

- - **Document all conflicts explicitly**: Never hide conflicting signals. Present the full bull and bear case and explain how the weighting resolves the conflict.

- - **Flag unresolvable conflicts**: When signals are deeply contradictory (e.g., strong fundamentals + extreme overvaluation + heavy insider selling), flag the position as "Conflicted — Monitor Only" and do not assign a composite buy/sell recommendation until resolution.

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- ## Report Structure

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- The unified output produced by `/research-bundle` includes:

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- 1. **Investment Thesis** (2–3 paragraphs): What does the company do, why is it a compelling or poor investment at this specific time, and what is the key insight driving the thesis?

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- 2. **Bull Case** (3–5 specific, quantifiable reasons to buy with supporting evidence from the phase outputs)

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- 3. **Bear Case** (3–5 specific risks with probability assessment and potential impact on intrinsic value)

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- 4. **Composite Score Card** (visual table with all component scores, sub-score methodology, and interpretation)

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- 5. **Valuation Summary** (intrinsic value per share, current price, margin of safety, upside/downside % for each scenario)

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- 6. **Entry Strategy** (current technical setup description, ideal entry price range, recommended position sizing based on conviction level)

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- 7. **Exit Strategy** (price targets for base/bull/bear case scenarios, stop loss level, time horizon for thesis to play out)

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- 8. **Monitoring Plan** (what to watch quarterly — key metrics to track, events that would change the thesis, early warning signals for thesis degradation)

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- 9. **Standard Signal Output block**

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- ## Usage Modes

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- ```

- # Full bundle — runs all 5 phases sequentially

- /research-bundle AAPL

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- # Partial bundle — skip specific phases

- /research-bundle TSLA --skip technical

- /research-bundle MSFT --skip options

- # Quick bundle — condensed 1-page summary with composite score only

- /research-bundle NVDA --quick

- # Comparison mode — side-by-side analysis of multiple tickers

- /research-bundle AAPL,MSFT,GOOGL --compare

- # With visual output — optimized for /report-generator HTML export

- /research-bundle AMZN --visual

- ```

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- ## Visualization Support

- When `--visual` flag is used, include chart data tables for report generation:

- ### Composite Score Radar Chart

- **Chart Type**: Radar/spider chart

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Component Score (0-10)

- Business Quality [value]

- Valuation [value]

- Market Signals [value]

- Technical Setup [value]

- Risk Profile [value]

- ```

- ### Phase Score Summary Bar Chart

- **Chart Type**: Horizontal bar chart

- ```

- Phase Score Interpretation

- Business Quality [X.X] [Excellent/Good/Fair/Weak]

- Valuation [X.X] [Deep Value/Fair Value/Expensive]

- Market Signals [X.X] [Bullish/Neutral/Bearish]

- Technical Setup [X.X] [Strong/Moderate/Weak]

- Risk Profile [X.X] [Low/Medium/High Risk]

- ─────────────────────────────────────────────────

- Composite [X.X] [Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell]

- ```

- ## Integration Notes

- - Each phase feeds into the next: competitive position analysis informs DCF growth assumptions; valuation determines position sizing in the entry strategy

- - Best used for **final due diligence** before position initiation, not for screening

- - **Revisit quarterly** or after major news/earnings events using `--quick` mode to check thesis integrity

- - Output is optimized for `/report-generator` for full HTML export with charts

- - When comparing multiple tickers with `--compare`, the output produces a side-by-side composite score table ranked by total score

- ## Output

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- Provide a unified research bundle report with:

- - Phase-by-phase analysis summaries

- - Composite score card with all component scores

- - Full investment thesis with bull and bear case

- - Valuation summary with margin of safety

- - Entry and exit strategy with price targets

- - Monitoring plan with key metrics

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- ### Enhanced Output (with --visual flag)

- - All standard sections above

- - Radar chart data for composite score visualization

- - Bar chart data for phase score summary

- - Chart specifications for HTML report generation via `/report-generator`

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- ## Standard Signal Output

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- All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

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- Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)

- Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)