research-bundle · git:20260224.5f0f21a · 2026-02-24 · sha256 c57e34dc1fb21be7
research-bundle git:20260224.5f0f21aB
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--- description: Comprehensive stock research by chaining multiple analysis skills into a unified investment thesis --- # Research Bundle Run a complete, structured research process for a single stock by systematically applying multiple InvestSkill analysis modules and synthesizing them into a unified investment thesis with a composite score. ## Overview `/research-bundle` is a meta-skill that orchestrates all other InvestSkill analysis modules in a defined sequence. Rather than running individual skills in isolation, this skill chains them together so that earlier-phase outputs inform later-phase assumptions. The result is a single, comprehensive investment thesis document with a composite score, clearly presented bull and bear cases, and actionable entry/exit strategy. Use this skill when you need final due diligence before initiating or sizing a position, or when you want a structured, repeatable research process across multiple stocks. --- ## Research Process (Phases) ### Phase 1: Business & Competitive Foundation Establish the qualitative and quantitative foundation for the investment thesis before attempting valuation. - Run: `/competitor-analysis [TICKER]` — Understand moat, competitive position, industry dynamics, Porter's Five Forces, and pricing power - Run: `/fundamental-analysis [TICKER]` — Deep financial statement analysis covering income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and business quality metrics - Output: **Business Quality Assessment (1–10 score)** - Score reflects durability of competitive advantages, financial health, and consistency of returns ### Phase 2: Valuation Determine what the business is worth using both intrinsic and relative methods. - Run: `/dcf-valuation [TICKER]` — Intrinsic value estimate using discounted cash flow modeling with three scenarios (Bull/Base/Bear) - Run: `/stock-eval [TICKER]` — Relative valuation vs. peers using P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/FCF, and sector benchmarks - Output: **Valuation Assessment (premium/discount to intrinsic value %)** - Combines DCF intrinsic value and relative valuation into a single price target range ### Phase 3: Market Signals Understand what sophisticated market participants are doing with the stock. - Run: `/insider-trading [TICKER]` — Insider sentiment, transaction patterns, and Form 4 analysis - Run: `/institutional-ownership [TICKER]` — Smart money positioning, 13F changes, concentration, and flow trends - Run: `/earnings-call-analysis [TICKER]` — Management tone, guidance quality, language analysis, and forward signals - Output: **Market Signal Score (1–10)** - High score = strong insider buying, institutional accumulation, and positive management tone ### Phase 4: Technical Timing Identify the current technical setup to optimize entry timing relative to the fundamental thesis. - Run: `/technical-analysis [TICKER] --chart` — Entry timing, trend structure, support/resistance, volume patterns, and momentum indicators - Output: **Technical Setup Quality (Strong / Moderate / Weak)** - Strong = price in uptrend, near support, momentum positive - Weak = downtrend, extended from support, negative momentum ### Phase 5: Risk Assessment Quantify downside risks and understand positioning pressure. - Run: `/short-interest [TICKER]` — Short positioning, days-to-cover, short squeeze potential, and bearish thesis signals - Optional: `/options-analysis [TICKER]` — Options market signals including implied volatility, put/call ratios, and options flow - Output: **Risk Profile (Low / Medium / High)** - High short interest + high IV + concentrated bearish options flow = High risk profile --- ## Composite Scoring Framework ``` Research Bundle Score = Weighted Composite Component Weight Sub-Score (0-10) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── Business Quality 25% [score from competitor + fundamental] Valuation 25% [score from DCF + stock-eval] Market Signals 20% [insider + institutional + earnings] Technical Setup 15% [technical analysis timing] Risk Profile 15% [short interest + options signals] ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── COMPOSITE SCORE 100% X.X / 10 Composite Interpretation: 8.0–10.0 → Strong Buy (all signals aligned) 6.5–7.9 → Buy (most signals positive) 5.0–6.4 → Hold/Watchlist (mixed signals) 3.5–4.9 → Underweight (mostly negative signals) 0.0–3.4 → Sell/Avoid (strong negative signals) ``` Sub-score derivation: - Business Quality (0–10): Average of `/competitor-analysis` moat score and `/fundamental-analysis` financial strength score - Valuation (0–10): 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = at fair value; 0 = extremely overvalued - Market Signals (0–10): Weighted average of insider, institutional, and earnings call scores - Technical Setup (0–10): Qualitative conversion — Strong=8–10, Moderate=4–7, Weak=0–3 - Risk Profile (0–10): Inverse of risk — Low risk = high score (8–10), High risk = low score (0–3) --- ## Conflict Resolution When signals conflict across skills, apply these rules: - **Fundamental overrides technical**: Business quality and intrinsic value take precedence over short-term price action. A great business at fair value with weak technicals is still a good investment. - **Consensus overrides outlier**: When 4 of 5 skills agree on direction, do not let the single outlier dominate the composite score. Document the outlier and its reasoning. - **Document all conflicts explicitly**: Never hide conflicting signals. Present the full bull and bear case and explain how the weighting resolves the conflict. - **Flag unresolvable conflicts**: When signals are deeply contradictory (e.g., strong fundamentals + extreme overvaluation + heavy insider selling), flag the position as "Conflicted — Monitor Only" and do not assign a composite buy/sell recommendation until resolution. --- ## Report Structure The unified output produced by `/research-bundle` includes: 1. **Investment Thesis** (2–3 paragraphs): What does the company do, why is it a compelling or poor investment at this specific time, and what is the key insight driving the thesis? 2. **Bull Case** (3–5 specific, quantifiable reasons to buy with supporting evidence from the phase outputs) 3. **Bear Case** (3–5 specific risks with probability assessment and potential impact on intrinsic value) 4. **Composite Score Card** (visual table with all component scores, sub-score methodology, and interpretation) 5. **Valuation Summary** (intrinsic value per share, current price, margin of safety, upside/downside % for each scenario) 6. **Entry Strategy** (current technical setup description, ideal entry price range, recommended position sizing based on conviction level) 7. **Exit Strategy** (price targets for base/bull/bear case scenarios, stop loss level, time horizon for thesis to play out) 8. **Monitoring Plan** (what to watch quarterly — key metrics to track, events that would change the thesis, early warning signals for thesis degradation) 9. **Standard Signal Output block** --- ## Usage Modes ``` # Full bundle — runs all 5 phases sequentially /research-bundle AAPL # Partial bundle — skip specific phases /research-bundle TSLA --skip technical /research-bundle MSFT --skip options # Quick bundle — condensed 1-page summary with composite score only /research-bundle NVDA --quick # Comparison mode — side-by-side analysis of multiple tickers /research-bundle AAPL,MSFT,GOOGL --compare # With visual output — optimized for /report-generator HTML export /research-bundle AMZN --visual ``` --- ## Visualization Support When `--visual` flag is used, include chart data tables for report generation: ### Composite Score Radar Chart **Chart Type**: Radar/spider chart **Data Table**: ``` Component Score (0-10) Business Quality [value] Valuation [value] Market Signals [value] Technical Setup [value] Risk Profile [value] ``` ### Phase Score Summary Bar Chart **Chart Type**: Horizontal bar chart ``` Phase Score Interpretation Business Quality [X.X] [Excellent/Good/Fair/Weak] Valuation [X.X] [Deep Value/Fair Value/Expensive] Market Signals [X.X] [Bullish/Neutral/Bearish] Technical Setup [X.X] [Strong/Moderate/Weak] Risk Profile [X.X] [Low/Medium/High Risk] ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Composite [X.X] [Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell] ``` --- ## Integration Notes - Each phase feeds into the next: competitive position analysis informs DCF growth assumptions; valuation determines position sizing in the entry strategy - Best used for **final due diligence** before position initiation, not for screening - **Revisit quarterly** or after major news/earnings events using `--quick` mode to check thesis integrity - Output is optimized for `/report-generator` for full HTML export with charts - When comparing multiple tickers with `--compare`, the output produces a side-by-side composite score table ranked by total score --- ## Output Provide a unified research bundle report with: - Phase-by-phase analysis summaries - Composite score card with all component scores - Full investment thesis with bull and bear case - Valuation summary with margin of safety - Entry and exit strategy with price targets - Monitoring plan with key metrics ### Enhanced Output (with --visual flag) - All standard sections above - Radar chart data for composite score visualization - Bar chart data for phase score summary - Chart specifications for HTML report generation via `/report-generator` ## Standard Signal Output All analysis concludes with this standardized block: ``` ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ INVESTMENT SIGNAL ║ ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ ║ Signal: BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║ ║ Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW ║ ║ Horizon: SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM ║ ║ Score: X.X / 10 ║ ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ ║ Action: BUY / HOLD / SELL ║ ║ Conviction: STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝ ``` Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals) Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)