git:20260512.9addfe3 to git:20260512.a4ba040

- Track rising, peaking, and fading crypto/tech narratives with quantitative mindshare + velocity

- signals and explicit positioning calls (FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE). Triangulates

- xAI x_search, WebSearch, and prior-day memory. Use for daily macro reads, pre-trade context, or

- detecting reflexivity before it shows in price.

- Triggers: "track narratives", "what's running on CT", "narrative map", "is X peaking",

- "give me positions for today", "what narratives transitioned".

- Decision-grade narrative map. Every narrative gets a mindshare score (1–5), a velocity arrow, a phase label, a sentiment tag, named drivers (handles, not vibes), a sharp one-line bear case, and an explicit position call.

-

- Classification without a position call is noise. Narratives that grade IGNORE are dropped unless structurally important.

- 1. **xAI x_search** — pre-fetched cache of 12–15 distinct narrative threads over the last 3 days, with drivers, permalinks, and mention-volume descriptors.

-

- ```bash

- curl -s --max-time 60 -X POST "https://api.x.ai/v1/responses" \

- -H "Authorization: Bearer $XAI_API_KEY" \

- -H "Content-Type: application/json" \

- -d '{

- "model": "grok-4-1-fast",

- "input": [{"role":"user","content":"Search X for dominant crypto and tech narratives from FROM to TO. Return 12-15 distinct threads with labels, drivers, permalinks, mention-volume."}],

- "tools": [{"type":"x_search","from_date":"FROM","to_date":"TO"}]

- }'

- ```

-

- 2. **Web triangulation** — focused WebSearch queries against DefiLlama, Kaito mindshare leaderboard, and the broader open web for quantitative reference points.

-

- 3. **Memory diff** — narrative labels from the last 3 days of prior runs — basis for transition detection.

-

- ## Scoring rubric

-

- | Field | Scale | Decision rule |

- |---|---|---|

- | **Mindshare** | 1–5 | 1 = fringe; 3 = known in sector; 5 = dominating timelines. Based on driver count + how unprompted it surfaced. |

- | **Velocity** | ↑↑ / ↑ / → / ↓ / ↓↓ | Vs the 3-day window. ↑↑ = tripled. ↓↓ = was loud, now absent. |

- | **Phase** | Emerging / Rising / Peak / Fading | Velocity × Mindshare combo. Emerging = low mind, high vel. Peak = high mind, flat/down. |

- | **Sentiment** | Bull / Mixed / Bear / **Cope** | Cope = bag-holder energy, bear narratives dressed as bull takes. |

- | **Drivers** | 2–3 named | Handles, projects, or funds. Anonymous "crypto Twitter" is not a driver. |

- | **Bear case** | 1 line | Sharpest argument against. If consensus is obviously right, say "no contrarian edge". |

- | **Position** | FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE | FRONT-RUN = emerging + contrarian edge. RIDE = rising, not peaked. FADE = peak + weak fundamentals or reflexivity flip. WATCH = unclear but worth tracking. IGNORE = drop. |

-

- ## Transition detection

-

- Vs the prior 3 days of logs:

-

- - **NEW** — narrative absent from prior logs.

- - **PROMOTED** — phase moved up (Emerging → Rising → Peak → Fading).

- - **DEMOTED** — phase moved down.

- - **DEAD** — was tracked, now absent across all signals.

-

- Transitions are the highest-value output — a daily tracker that re-prints the zeitgeist is wallpaper.

-

- ## Reflexivity flagging

-

- Each narrative is checked for whether the story is actively moving outcomes. Flag only with concrete evidence:

-

- - Token prices moving on narrative alone (no fundamentals shift).

- - Projects rebranding to ride the narrative.

- - VCs publicly endorsing to manufacture legitimacy.

- - On-chain flows reflecting narrative belief.

-

- "Reflexivity" without evidence is hand-waving — drop.

- ## Output format

- Lead with transitions and reflexivity (the decisions). Positions next. Static map last.

- *Narrative Tracker — 2026-05-12*

-

- • NEW: agentic-payments — first-of-its-kind merchant adoption announcement — [link]

- • PROMOTED: restaking — Rising → Peak (institutional ETF leak)

- • DEMOTED: memecoin-szn — Peak → Fading (volumes collapsed 60% WoW)

- • DEAD: parallel-EVM — absent across all signals

- REFLEXIVITY ALERT

- • prediction-markets — protocols rebranding around Polymarket S-1 leak; @handle, @handle pivoting

- • FRONT-RUN: agentic-payments (2 ↑↑, Bull) — @handle, @handle — bear: total volume still <$1M — [link]

- • RIDE: AI-x-crypto (4 ↑, Mixed) — driver list — bear: hype/use ratio extreme

- • FADE: restaking (5 → Cope) — driver list — reflexivity flagged

- Emerging: agentic-payments, on-chain-credit

- Rising: AI-x-crypto, prediction-markets

- Peak: restaking, ETH-S-1

- Fading: memecoin-szn

- Quiet day output (no transitions, no reflexivity, no FRONT-RUN/FADE): one line — `no phase transitions, map unchanged from {prior_date}`. Silence is correct.

-

- ## Guidelines

-

- - Quantitative over vibes. No mindshare score → drop the narrative.

- - Transitions > classification. A tracker that just lists the weather is noise.

- - Named drivers only. "Crypto Twitter is excited about X" is not a driver.

- - Ruthless dedup. Same narrative under two labels = one narrative; merge.

- - Position calls mandatory for Emerging/Rising/Peak. WATCH is acceptable when signals are genuinely ambiguous; never omit a position.

- - Call out cope explicitly. Manufactured narratives, coordinated shilling, dead-cat bounces get tagged.

- ## Required keys

- - `XAI_API_KEY` — for x_search ingest (falls back to WebSearch).