git:20260730.78fbf1a to git:20260922.09bd4b1

66 added, 175 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: lease-vs-cash-analyzer

description: Use to compute lease structure (cap cost / money factor / residual / acquisition / disposition), compare lease total cost vs cash purchase, decide lease vs buy given buyer's ownership horizon, and check captive lender early-buyout policy. Triggers include "lease or buy", "lease 数学", "compute lease monthly", "money factor markup", "lease cash incentive", "lease vs cash break-even", and Spanish phrase "leasing o compra al contado".

---

# Lease vs Cash Analyzer

- > **Caveat**: this skill is one author's playbook + 5-scenario stress test. Verify state fees / CPO terms / EV credits / dealer practices against current sources before quoting numbers to a dealer or making financial decisions. Not tax, legal, or financial advice.

- > **last_verified**: 2026-05-18 (Phase 3C sub-skill split from orchestrator)

- Narrow helper: lease structure math, lease-vs-cash break-even, captive lender

- policy lookup. Defers the full theory + worked tables to

- `../orchestrator/references/lease_playbook.md`.

- ## When To Use

+ Compare complete written offers on the same vehicle, mileage and ownership

+ horizon. A low monthly payment alone does not establish a cheaper deal. Preserve

+ the buyer's chosen financing method and private affordability limits.

- - Buyer asks "should I lease or buy?" with a concrete vehicle + horizon

- - Need to verify a dealer-quoted lease monthly is honest (MF buy-rate check)

- - Need lease-end disposition / early-buyout policy for one OEM captive

+ ## Required inputs

- > **NOTE, federal §45W lease pass-through is TERMINATED (acquired after 2025-09-30, OBBBA).**

- > The "EV buyer fails §30D AGI cap, so route to §45W lease pass-through" play is **dead**

- > for any 2026 lease. Lessor captives can no longer capture the federal $7,500 commercial

- > credit, so it is not available as cap cost reduction. Any "EV lease credit" a dealer

- > advertises in 2026 is ordinary OEM lease cash / marketing money, NOT a federal credit. Do not present it as §45W pass-through or count it as a federal incentive. See the

- > CRITICAL banner in `ev-buyer-helper`. §45W content below is HISTORICAL only.

+ - Agreed vehicle value, gross and adjusted capitalized cost, each incentive and

+ cap reduction, and each financed/upfront fee.

+ - Residual dollar amount and its MSRP base, money factor, term, mileage allowance,

+ payment dates, first-payment treatment and total due at signing.

+ - Applicable lease taxes from current jurisdiction/transaction evidence, with

+ upfront, periodic and purchase-option taxes separated.

+ - Contractual acquisition/disposition/purchase fees, wear/mileage rules, security

+ deposit/refund terms, and any incentive restrictions.

+ - Written cash or loan alternative, comparison horizon, estimated resale range,

+ maintenance/insurance differences and an explicit discount-rate assumption.

- ## When NOT To Use

+ Do not insert default lender waiting periods, residual percentages, money factors,

+ fee ranges or state lease-tax classifications. Missing terms remain unverified.

- - General OTD cash math - delegate to `otd-calculator`

- - EV federal credit status / state rebate stacking - delegate to `ev-buyer-helper` first (federal §30D/§25E/§45W all terminated 2025-09-30; state rebates are the only live layer)

- - Pure CPO eligibility - delegate to `cpo-eligibility`

+ ## Standard monthly lease formula

- ## Core Lease Formula

+ For a conventional level-payment lease, with adjusted cap cost `C`, residual `R`,

+ money factor `MF`, and `N` months:

- ```

- Monthly = ((CapCost - Residual) / Term) + (CapCost + Residual) * MF + Tax

+ ```text

+ depreciation_component = (C-R)/N

+ rent_component = (C+R)*MF

+ base_monthly = depreciation_component + rent_component

```

- Variables:

- - `CapCost` = MSRP - CapCostReduction - LeaseCash - ManufacturerRebate

- + AcquisitionFee + DealerAddOns

- - `Residual` = MSRP * Residual% (typical 50-65% at 36 mo)

- - `MF` = APR / 2400 (money factor; dealer can mark up buy-rate)

- - `Term` = 24 / 36 / 39 mo most common

- ## Money Factor Markup Detection

- Always ask the dealer for the BUY-RATE money factor explicitly. If quoted MF

- exceeds prevailing captive buy-rate by more than 0.00040 (~ 1% APR), the dealer

- is marking up. Markup converts to dealer reserve, paid to dealer monthly over

- the lease term. Push back: "what is the buy-rate from {captive} on this

- vehicle and tier?" If they refuse to share, assume markup.

- ## State Tax-on-Lease Mechanics (4 buckets)

- | Bucket | States | Mechanics |

- |---|---|---|

- | Lease-friendly | NJ, FL, CA, NV, WA | Tax on monthly payment only, not on residual buyout |

- | Upfront-load (capitalizable) | NY, IL | Full-term tax due at signing; can be capitalized into cap cost |

- | Heavy upfront | TX, DC | Tax on FULL cap cost up front, regardless of residual |

- | Mixed | most others | Local rules vary; check `state_fees.md` |

- For TX/DC the cash-purchase math frequently wins because the lease tax penalty

- front-loads ~$3,500-5,000 on a $40k vehicle.

- ## Lease vs Buy Decision Rules

- | Ownership horizon | Mileage | Lean |

- |---|---|---|

- | < 3 yr | 10-12k mi/yr | Lease often wins (low residual exposure) |

- | 3-5 yr | 10-12k mi/yr | Break-even; depends on MF vs cash APR + residual % |

- | > 5 yr | any | Buy always wins (lease compounding monthly never stops) |

- | any | > 15k mi/yr | Buy wins (excess-mileage penalty $0.15-0.30/mi) |

- ## EV Lease §45W $7,500 Captured by Lessor, TERMINATED 2025-09-30 (HISTORICAL)

- > **No longer available.** OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) terminated the federal §45W

- > Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit for any vehicle **acquired after 2025-09-30**, on the

- > same date as §30D / §25E. A lessor can no longer capture a federal $7,500 credit on a

- > 2026 EV lease, so the lease pass-through below is **$0 of federal money** and must NOT

- > be added to cap cost math or presented to a buyer as a federal incentive. Any 2026

- > "EV lease credit" line is ordinary OEM lease cash / marketing money, treat it as a

- > negotiable OEM incentive, not a federal credit. Retained below for pre-cutoff

- > (acquired on/before 2025-09-30) reference only. See the CRITICAL banner in

- > `ev-buyer-helper`.

- Historically, the lessor (captive finance company) captured the federal Commercial Clean

- Vehicle Credit, NOT the lessee. Pass-through varied by OEM (pre-cutoff only):

- | OEM | Typical pass-through (HISTORICAL) | Notes |

- |---|---|---|

- | Hyundai / Kia / GM | Full $7,500 via cap cost reduction | Standard, advertised |

- | Toyota / Honda / Ford | $4,500 - $7,500 | Varies by trim, region, promo |

- | BMW / MB / Audi | $3,500 - $5,000 | Lowest pass-through |

- This was historically useful for EV buyers who failed §30D AGI cap (single > $150k /

- MFJ > $300k) or for vehicles that failed §30D MSRP / final-assembly tests (no AGI / MSRP

- cap on §45W). All three credits are now terminated, so this routing no longer exists.

- See `../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md` § §45W.

- ## Captive Lender Rules

- |---|---|---|---|

- | BMW Financial | After 4 payments | $0.25/mi | $500 fee |

- Disposition fee at lease-end: $350-$495 typical. Often WAIVED if buyer leases

- or buys another vehicle from the same OEM within 30 days of return.

- Acquisition fee at signing: $595-$895. Sometimes capitalizable, sometimes paid

- out of pocket - depends on captive. Always shown on the lease worksheet.

- ## Lease Cash Conversion Trick

- When the manufacturer offers lease cash but no cash-buyer rebate of comparable

- size, the lease-then-buyout path captures the lease cash. Pattern:

- 1. Lease the vehicle for 24 mo with manufacturer lease cash applied as cap

- cost reduction.

- 2. Confirm captive allows early buyout from day 1 (Hyundai) or after the

- minimum waiting period.

- 3. Exercise buyout at lease-end residual (or earlier per captive policy).

- 4. Net cost = (24 mo of lease payments) + (residual buyout) + (taxes per

- state); compare against a hypothetical cash purchase day 0.

+ Use the contract's adjusted cap cost, not the vehicle price before fees/credits.

+ Add taxes according to the actual lease rules; tax is not universally a rate

+ times the monthly payment. `MF*2400` is an approximate APR-style percentage

+ display convention, not an exact loan APR or proof of markup.

- Often saves $1,500-$3,500 on Hyundai/Kia/Subaru where lease cash > cash

- rebate. Watch for: acquisition fee, disposition fee (waived if you buy out),

- and any "lease loyalty" lockouts the captive may apply.

+ Check quoted buy-rate evidence for the exact lender, credit tier, vehicle,

+ region, term, mileage and date before alleging markup. For the same `C` and `R`,

+ the pre-tax monthly effect of a factor change is `(C+R)*delta_MF`.

- ## Worked Example

+ ## Compare cash flows over the same horizon

- 2026 Ioniq 5 SEL, 36mo / 12k mi lease (2026 acquisition, federal §45W is $0,

- TERMINATED 2025-09-30):

+ Use dated outflows/inflows, not a fixed "lease under three years, buy over six"

+ rule. Avoid counting the first payment twice when it is included in drive-off.

+ Include contractually applicable return charges, mileage/wear exposure,

+ maintenance and insurance differences. At the horizon, an owned vehicle has

+ resale value and possibly an outstanding payoff; a returned lease does not.

- - MSRP: $51,150

- - Residual (55%): $28,133

- - Money factor: 0.00125 (~3.0% APR equivalent)

- - Federal §45W pass-through: **$0 (TERMINATED 2025-09-30, not available in 2026)**

- - OEM lease cash (if advertised, ordinary marketing money, verify on worksheet): varies;

- treat as a negotiable OEM incentive, NOT a federal credit. Assume $0 for this example.

- - Acquisition fee: $650

- - Adjusted CapCost: 51,150 + 650 = $51,800

+ For an explicitly chosen per-period discount rate `d`:

- Monthly base = (51,800 - 28,133) / 36 = $657.42

- Rent charge = (51,800 + 28,133) * 0.00125 = $99.92

- Pre-tax monthly = $757.34

+ ```text

+ present_cost = sum(outflow_t/(1+d)^t) - sum(inflow_t/(1+d)^t)

+ ```

- Apply NJ tax (lease-friendly, monthly only) at 6.625%: $50.17

- Final monthly: ~$808

+ Use equal periods and the same rate/basis across options. Include resale net of

+ loan payoff as an ownership inflow when modeling a sale. Show sensitivity to

+ resale and mileage assumptions; neither is a known future outcome.

- > Historical contrast (pre-2025-10-01 acquisition only): with the §45W -$7,500 cap cost

- > reduction that used to exist, adjusted CapCost was $44,300, pre-tax monthly ~$540,

- > final ~$575. That ~$233/mo gap is the value the now-terminated federal credit used to

- > deliver. It is gone for any 2026 lease.

+ ## Early purchase and incentives

- Cash alternative for same buyer:

- - MSRP $51,150, negotiated to $48,000, plus TTL ~$3,000 = ~$51,000 OTD

- - No federal credit on either side (§30D / §25E / §45W all terminated 2025-09-30)

- - 36-mo TCO at lease (2026): 36 * $808 = $29,088 + $0 residual exposure (return car)

- - 36-mo TCO at cash: $51,000 - resale ~$30,000 = $21,000 net depreciation

+ Request an official dated PURCHASE payoff directly from the lessor or its

+ authorized process. Early purchase payoff can include outstanding lease balance,

+ remaining contractual charges and fees. It is not the end-of-term residual.

+ Verify allowed timing, incentive clawbacks, taxes, purchase fees and title costs.

- Without the federal credit the lease's monthly is much higher, so cash purchase now

- generally wins on 36-mo TCO and clearly wins at 6+ years. Check live state rebates

- (via `ev-buyer-helper`) as the only remaining incentive layer.

+ Compare drive-off, payments already made, official payoff, taxes/fees and any

+ financing costs against the written cash alternative. Do not subtract lease cash

+ a second time if it already reduced cap cost/payoff. A fixed incentive amount

+ does not guarantee savings. No lease or buyout is initiated without authorization.

- ## Cross-References

+ Verify current incentives against official dated terms. Do not assume an "EV

+ credit" label proves a federal credit, OEM incentive, buyer eligibility or a

+ lessor pass-through. Keep claimed government credits separate from actual

+ contractual discounts until their basis is established.

- - `../orchestrator/references/lease_playbook.md` - full formulas, residual

- tables by OEM, region-specific MF charts, all 50-state tax mechanics

- - `../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md` § §45W commercial credit

- - full pass-through tables and lessor list (HISTORICAL: §45W terminated 2025-09-30;

- see `ev-buyer-helper` CRITICAL banner, no federal lease credit on 2026 acquisitions)

- - `../orchestrator/references/state_fees.md` - state TTL components for the

- cash-comparison side

- - `../orchestrator/SKILL.md` Critical Rule #4 - never quote a lease monthly

- to the buyer without showing the MF + residual + cap cost breakdown

+ ## Output contract

- ## Output Contract

+ Give the buyer the written inputs, reconstructed monthly calculation, due-at-signing

+ reconciliation, tax assumptions, horizon cash flows, uncertainty range and a

+ conditional verdict when terms are missing. Report early-buyout rules as verified,

+ unverified or unavailable with source dates. Keep `walk_away` and monthly ceilings

+ private. Save real worksheets and analysis only through the private runtime resolver.

- After every lease analysis, return to the operator:

+ See `../orchestrator/references/lease_playbook.md` and

+ `../orchestrator/references/payment_methods.md` for the calculation procedure.

+ The cash-purchase OTD calculator is not evidence of lease-tax support.

- ```

- Lease vs Cash analysis - <timestamp>

- Vehicle: <year make model trim>, MSRP $<n>

- Lease offer:

- Term: <n> mo / <n>k mi

- MF: 0.<nnnnn> (buy-rate <n>.<n>0%, markup <yes/no>)

- Residual: <n>% = $<n>

- CapCost (adjusted): $<n>

- Monthly (pre-tax): $<n>

- Monthly (with state tax): $<n>

- Cash alt: $<n> OTD, 36mo NPV $<n>

- Verdict: LEASE / BUY / BREAK-EVEN

- Captive policy: early buyout <when>, disposition $<n>

- ```

+ When installed through directory links, resolve this SKILL.md to its source directory before following relative file paths. Those paths refer to the repository layout.