financial-modeling · diff
git:20260810.408b2fb to git:20260810.7f5bb69
16 added, 16 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: financial-modeling
description: Build 3-statement financial models with scenario and sensitivity tables for Indonesian SME planning, staying deterministic and auditable.
- argument-hint: "<asumsi> <skenario>"
+ argument-hint: "<assumptions> <scenarios>"
risk_level: MEDIUM
rule_type: professional-standard
---
# Financial Modeling
- Connects penjualan → Laba Rugi → Neraca → Arus Kas in one consistent, auditable model.
+ Connects sales → Income Statement → Balance Sheet → Cash Flow in one consistent, auditable model.
## 3-Statement Linkage
- * **Driver**: penjualan (volume × harga) → semua baris lain mengikuti.
- * **Laba Rugi** → laba bersih → ekuitas.
- * **Neraca**: aset (kas, piutang % penjualan, persediaan % COGS, aset tetap + capex − depresiasi) = liabilitas + ekuitas — selalu balancing.
- * **Arus Kas**: laba bersih + non-kas ± perubahan modal kerja − capex − pembayaran utang.
+ * **Driver**: sales (volume × price) → all other line items follow.
+ * **Income Statement** → net income → equity.
+ * **Balance Sheet**: assets (cash, receivables % of sales, inventory % of COGS, fixed assets + capex − depreciation) = liabilities + equity — always balanced.
+ * **Cash Flow**: net income + non-cash items ± changes in working capital − capex − debt payments.
## Modeling Rules
- * Setiap input asumsi satu cell, dirujuk (tidak hard-coded di banyak tempat).
- * Semua skenario memakai driver yang sama — hanya nilai asumsi yang berubah.
- * Sensitivity table: 3 skenario (pesimis/base/optimis) × 2 driver (volume, harga) — deterministik, tanpa Monte Carlo.
- * Model dicek: total aset = liabilitas + ekuitas di setiap periode (balance check wajib).
+ * Each assumption input lives in a single cell and is referenced (not hard-coded in multiple places).
+ * All scenarios use the same drivers — only the assumption values change.
+ * Sensitivity table: 3 scenarios (pessimistic/base/optimistic) × 2 drivers (volume, price) — deterministic, no Monte Carlo.
+ * The model is checked: total assets = liabilities + equity in every period (balance check required).
## Scope & Safety
- * **Use for**: rencana bisnis, pengajuan kredit, uji dampak asumsi.
- * **Do not use for**: pelaporan keuangan resmi, valuasi pengambilalihan, atau klaim akurasi prediksi — model = alat berpikir, bukan oracle.
- * Semua proyeksi berlabel asumsi + tanggal; jangan campur angka aktual tanpa label.
- * Standar akuntansi & perpajakan yang dipakai (PSAK EMKM, PPh) harus disebut dan diverifikasi.
+ * **Use for**: business plans, credit applications, testing the impact of assumptions.
+ * **Do not use for**: official financial reporting, acquisition valuation, or claims of prediction accuracy — a model is a thinking tool, not an oracle.
+ * All projections are labeled with assumptions + date; do not mix actual figures without labels.
+ * The accounting & tax standards used (SAK EMKM, PPh) must be stated and verified.
## Worked Example
- Input: penjualan 1 M/bulan, margin 30%, piutang 30 hari, persediaan 45 hari, capex 50 jt, depresiasi 10 jt/bln, skenario pesimis = penjualan −10%.
- Output: pesimis → penjualan 900 jt, laba bersih turun ~30 jt, arus kas operasi turun; balance check Neraca tetap nol selisih; sensitivity: | penjualan −10% | base | +10% | → | arus kas operasi: X | Y | Z | — sajikan tabel untuk keputusan.
+ Input: sales 1 billion/month, margin 30%, receivables 30 days, inventory 45 days, capex 50 million, depreciation 10 million/month, pessimistic scenario = sales −10%.
+ Output: pessimistic → sales 900 million, net income down ~30 million, operating cash flow down; balance check still shows zero difference on the Balance Sheet; sensitivity: | sales −10% | base | +10% | → | operating cash flow: X | Y | Z | — present a table for decision-making.