git:20260104.f90e822 to git:20260219.24f64c4
151 added, 60 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: stanley-druckenmiller-investment
- description: スタンレー・ドラッケンミラーの投資哲学と戦略に基づいた投資アドバイスを提供。30年間無敗、年率30%近いリターンを達成した伝説的投資家の思考法を活用し、マクロ経済分析、リスク管理、ポジション構築、市場サイクルの読み方などについて実践的な指導を行う。投資判断、市場分析、リスク管理、ポートフォリオ構築などの相談時に使用。
+ description: Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer - Integrates 8 upstream skill outputs (Market Breadth, Uptrend Analysis, Market Top, Macro Regime, FTD Detector, VCP Screener, Theme Detector, CANSLIM Screener) into a unified conviction score (0-100), pattern classification, and allocation recommendation. Use when user asks about overall market conviction, portfolio positioning, asset allocation, strategy synthesis, or Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on queries like "What is my conviction level?", "How should I position?", "Run the strategy synthesizer", "Druckenmiller analysis", "総合的な市場判断", "確信度スコア", "ポートフォリオ配分", "ドラッケンミラー分析".
---
- # スタンレー・ドラッケンミラーの投資アドバイザー
+ # Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer
- スタンレー・ドラッケンミラーの投資哲学と30年にわたる実績に基づいて、投資に関する実践的なアドバイスを提供します。
+ ## Purpose
- ## 概要
+ Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a **meta-skill** that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.
- このスキルは、以下のようなドラッケンミラーの核心的な投資原則に基づいてアドバイスを行います：
+ ## When to Use This Skill
- - **集中投資と忍耐**: 年に1-2回の絶好の機会を待ち、確信がある時に大きく張る
- - **資本保全**: 「50%の損失を取り戻すには100%の利益が必要」- 大きな損失を避ける
- - **未来志向**: 「現在に投資するな、18か月先の未来に投資せよ」
- - **流動性重視**: 「市場を動かすのは企業収益ではなく中央銀行と流動性」
- - **柔軟性**: 間違いに気づいたら即座に方向転換する
+ **English:**
+ - User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
+ - User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
+ - User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
+ - User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
+ - User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
+ - User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)
- ## 使用方法
+ **Japanese:**
+ - 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
+ - ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
+ - 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
+ - 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
+ - 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート
- ### 基本的な質問への対応
+ ---
- ユーザーからの質問に対して、ドラッケンミラーの思考法を適用して回答します：
+ ## Input Requirements
- 1. **市場分析の相談**
- - 現在の市場環境の評価
- - 18か月先の予測
- - 投資機会の識別
+ ### Required Skills (5)
- 2. **リスク管理の相談**
- - ポジションサイズの決定
- - 損切りポイントの設定
- - ポートフォリオの防御策
+ | # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role |
+ |---|-------|-------------|------|
+ | 1 | Market Breadth Analyzer | `market_breadth_` | Market participation breadth |
+ | 2 | Uptrend Analyzer | `uptrend_analysis_` | Sector uptrend ratios |
+ | 3 | Market Top Detector | `market_top_` | Distribution / top risk (defense) |
+ | 4 | Macro Regime Detector | `macro_regime_` | Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure) |
+ | 5 | FTD Detector | `ftd_detector_` | Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense) |
- 3. **投資戦略の相談**
- - エントリータイミング
- - 資産配分の提案
- - 市場サイクルの判断
+ ### Optional Skills (3)
- ### リファレンスの活用
+ | # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role |
+ |---|-------|-------------|------|
+ | 6 | VCP Screener | `vcp_screener_` | Momentum stock setups (VCP) |
+ | 7 | Theme Detector | `theme_detector_` | Theme / sector momentum |
+ | 8 | CANSLIM Screener | `canslim_screener_` | Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction) |
- 詳細な分析や具体的な手法については、以下のリファレンスファイルを参照します：
+ Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from `reports/`.
- - **投資哲学の詳細**: `references/investment-philosophy.md` を参照
- - ポジション構築、リスク管理、ベアマーケット戦略など
+ ---
- - **市場分析手法**: `references/market-analysis-guide.md` を参照
- - マクロ経済分析、中央銀行政策の評価、資産配分決定など
+ ## Execution Workflow
- - **実例と応用**: `references/case-studies.md` を参照
- - 歴史的成功事例、投資判断パターン、実践的応用方法など
+ ### Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites
- ## アドバイスの提供方法
+ Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in `reports/` and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.
- ### 1. 現状分析から始める
- - ユーザーの投資目的と制約を理解
- - 現在の市場環境を評価
- - リスク許容度を確認
+ ### Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer
- ### 2. ドラッケンミラー流の視点を提供
- - 18か月先を見据えた分析
- - 中央銀行政策と流動性の影響
- - 市場のコンセンサスとの乖離を指摘
+ ```bash
+ python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
+ --reports-dir reports/ \
+ --output-dir reports/ \
+ --max-age 72
+ ```
- ### 3. 具体的な行動指針を示す
- - 確信度に基づくポジションサイズ
- - エントリーとエグジットの条件
- - リスク管理の具体策
+ The script will:
+ 1. Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports
+ 2. Extract normalized signals from each skill
+ 3. Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)
+ 4. Compute composite conviction score
+ 5. Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns
+ 6. Generate target allocation and position sizing
+ 7. Output JSON and Markdown reports
- ### 4. 重要な警告を含める
- - 「見えない時は振るな」の原則
- - 大きな損失を避ける重要性
- - 柔軟性を保つ必要性
+ ### Phase 3: Present Results
- ## 回答スタイル
+ Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:
+ - Conviction score and zone
+ - Detected pattern and match strength
+ - Strongest and weakest components
+ - Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
+ - Position sizing parameters
+ - Relevant Druckenmiller principle
- - **明確で実践的**: 理論だけでなく具体的な行動指針を提供
- - **リスク意識**: 常にダウンサイドリスクを考慮
- - **謙虚さ**: 市場に対する謙虚さを忘れない
- - **柔軟性**: 状況変化に応じた修正の必要性を強調
+ ### Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context
- ## 注意事項
+ Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:
+ - **High conviction:** Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
+ - **Low conviction:** Emphasize capital preservation and patience
+ - **Pattern-specific:** Apply relevant case study from `references/case-studies.md`
- 1. **投資は自己責任**: このアドバイスは教育目的であり、投資判断は各自の責任で行うことを明確にする
+ ---
- 2. **個別銘柄の推奨は避ける**: 投資の考え方や分析手法の提供に焦点を当てる
+ ## 7-Component Scoring System
- 3. **リスクの強調**: ドラッケンミラー自身も強調する「資本保全」の重要性を常に伝える
+ | # | Component | Weight | Source Skill(s) | Key Signal |
+ |---|-----------|--------|----------------|------------|
+ | 1 | Market Structure | **18%** | Breadth + Uptrend | Market participation health |
+ | 2 | Distribution Risk | **18%** | Market Top (inverted) | Institutional selling risk |
+ | 3 | Bottom Confirmation | **12%** | FTD Detector | Re-entry signal after correction |
+ | 4 | Macro Alignment | **18%** | Macro Regime | Regime favorability |
+ | 5 | Theme Quality | **12%** | Theme Detector | Sector momentum health |
+ | 6 | Setup Availability | **10%** | VCP + CANSLIM | Quality stock setups |
+ | 7 | Signal Convergence | **12%** | All 5 required | Cross-skill agreement |
- 4. **時代背景の考慮**: 過去の成功事例を現代の文脈で解釈する必要性を認識する
+ ## 4 Pattern Classifications
+
+ | Pattern | Trigger Conditions | Druckenmiller Principle |
+ |---------|-------------------|----------------------|
+ | Policy Pivot Anticipation | Transitional regime + high transition probability | "Focus on central banks and liquidity" |
+ | Unsustainable Distortion | Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime | "How much you lose when wrong matters most" |
+ | Extreme Sentiment Contrarian | FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth | "Most money made in bear markets" |
+ | Wait & Observe | Low conviction + mixed signals (default) | "When you don't see it, don't swing" |
+
+ ## Conviction Zone Mapping
+
+ | Score | Zone | Exposure | Guidance |
+ |-------|------|----------|----------|
+ | 80-100 | Maximum Conviction | 90-100% | Fat pitch - swing hard |
+ | 60-79 | High Conviction | 70-90% | Standard risk management |
+ | 40-59 | Moderate Conviction | 50-70% | Reduce position sizes |
+ | 20-39 | Low Conviction | 20-50% | Preserve capital, minimal risk |
+ | 0-19 | Capital Preservation | 0-20% | Maximum defense |
+
+ ---
+
+ ## Output Files
+
+ - `druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json` — Structured analysis data
+ - `druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md` — Human-readable report
+
+ ## API Requirements
+
+ **None.** This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.
+
+ ## Reference Documents
+
+ ### `references/investment-philosophy.md`
+ - Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
+ - Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
+ - Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment
+
+ ### `references/market-analysis-guide.md`
+ - Signal-to-action mapping framework
+ - Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
+ - Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale
+
+ ### `references/case-studies.md`
+ - Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
+ - Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
+ - Load when user asks about historical parallels
+
+ ### `references/conviction_matrix.md`
+ - Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
+ - Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
+ - Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations
+
+ ### When to Load References
+ - **First use:** Load `investment-philosophy.md` for framework understanding
+ - **Allocation questions:** Load `market-analysis-guide.md` + `conviction_matrix.md`
+ - **Historical context:** Load `case-studies.md`
+ - **Regular execution:** References not needed — script handles scoring
+
+ ---
+
+ ## Relationship to Other Skills
+
+ | Skill | Relationship | Time Horizon |
+ |-------|-------------|-------------|
+ | Market Breadth Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot |
+ | Uptrend Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot |
+ | Market Top Detector | Input (required) | 2-8 weeks tactical |
+ | Macro Regime Detector | Input (required) | 1-2 years structural |
+ | FTD Detector | Input (required) | Days-weeks event |
+ | VCP Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific |
+ | Theme Detector | Input (optional) | Weeks-months thematic |
+ | CANSLIM Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific |
+ | **This Skill** | **Synthesizer** | **Unified conviction** |