earnings-watch git:20260320.6fe4825A

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---
name: earnings-watch
description: Quick post-earnings analysis for portfolio holdings. Beat/miss, key metrics, thesis impact, estimate revision. Triggers on "earnings update", "quarterly results", "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 results", "post-earnings".
---

# Earnings Watch

Fast-turnaround post-earnings analysis focused on thesis impact. NOT a full initiation report — assumes you already know the company.

## Step 1: Data Collection

**CRITICAL: Training data is outdated. ALWAYS search for current data.**

1. Write down today's date
2. Web search: "[Company] latest earnings results [current year]"
3. Verify earnings release date is within last 3 months
4. Collect: earnings release, 10-Q/10-K, call transcript, guidance

**For CEDEARs:** fetch the underlying US company's earnings, then calculate impact on CEDEAR price considering CCL.

## Step 2: Beat/Miss Analysis

| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Delta | Beat/Miss |
|--------|-----------|--------|-------|-----------|
| Revenue | | | $ / % | |
| EPS | | | $ / % | |
| [Key metric 1] | | | | |
| [Key metric 2] | | | | |

Lead with the headline: "AAPL Q3: Revenue beat by $2.1B (+3%), EPS beat by $0.12 (+8%)"

## Step 3: Key Takeaways

3-5 bullet points, prioritized by thesis relevance:
- What was NEW (not rehashing known info)
- What management said about forward guidance
- Any change in capital allocation (buybacks, dividends, capex)
- Segment/geography surprises

## Step 4: Thesis Impact

Map results to thesis pillars:

| Pillar | Pre-Earnings Status | Post-Earnings Impact | Updated Status |
|--------|--------------------|--------------------|---------------|
| | | Strengthened/Weakened/Unchanged | |

**Verdict:** Thesis intact / Thesis weakened / Thesis broken

## Step 5: Estimate Revision

| Metric | Old Estimate | New Estimate | Change | Reason |
|--------|-------------|-------------|--------|--------|
| FY Revenue | | | | |
| FY EPS | | | | |
| Target Price | | | | |

## Step 6: Action

- **Rating change:** Maintain / Upgrade / Downgrade
- **Position action:** Hold / Add on dip / Trim / Exit
- **Conviction:** High / Medium / Low
- **Next catalyst:** [event + date]

## Output Format

Concise markdown. 500-1000 words max. Tables for data, prose for analysis.

```
═══ EARNINGS WATCH: [TICKER] Q[N] [YEAR] ═══
Headline: [beat/miss summary]
Thesis impact: [intact/weakened/broken]
Action: [hold/add/trim/exit]
Next catalyst: [event on date]
```

## Notes

- Speed over depth — publish within 24h of earnings
- If earnings are from a CEDEAR underlying, include CCL-adjusted impact
- Always cite source and date for every number
- If guidance was lowered, that's more important than the backward-looking beat