kanchi-dividend-sop · diff
git:20260303.49f4e4f to git:20260517.7e57390
113 added, 31 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: kanchi-dividend-sop
description: Convert Kanchi-style dividend investing into a repeatable US-stock operating procedure. Use when users ask for かんち式配当投資, dividend screening, dividend growth quality checks, PERxPBR adaptation for US sectors, pullback limit-order planning, or one-page stock memo creation. Covers screening, deep dive, entry planning, and post-purchase monitoring cadence.
---
# Kanchi Dividend Sop
## Overview
Implement Kanchi's 5-step method as a deterministic workflow for US dividend investing.
Prioritize safety and repeatability over aggressive yield chasing.
## When to Use
Use this skill when the user needs:
- Kanchi-style dividend stock selection adapted for US equities.
- A repeatable screening and pullback-entry process instead of ad-hoc picks.
- One-page underwriting memos with explicit invalidation conditions.
- A handoff package for monitoring and tax/account-location workflows.
## Prerequisites
### API Key Setup
The entry signal script requires FMP API access:
```bash
export FMP_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
```
### Input Sources
Prepare one of the following inputs before running the workflow:
1. Output from `skills/value-dividend-screener/scripts/screen_dividend_stocks.py`.
2. Output from `skills/dividend-growth-pullback-screener/scripts/screen_dividend_growth.py`.
3. User-provided ticker list (broker export or manual list).
#### Expected JSON Input Format
When using `--input`, provide JSON in one of these formats:
```json
{
"profile": "balanced",
"candidates": [
{"ticker": "JNJ", "bucket": "core"},
{"ticker": "O", "bucket": "satellite"}
]
}
```
Or simplified:
```json
{
"tickers": ["JNJ", "PG", "KO"]
}
```
For deterministic artifact generation, provide tickers to:
```bash
python3 skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_sop_plan.py \
--tickers "JNJ,PG,KO" \
--output-dir reports/
```
- For Step 5 entry timing artifacts:
+ For Step 5 entry timing artifacts. **`--yield-floor` is mandatory** — it is
+ the Step-1 yield gate; without it every row fail-safes to `STEP1-RECHECK`
+ (a row can never reach a PASS tier without Step 1). Pass `--profile` /
+ `--safety-bias` for run_context, and `--events-json` for the Step 4b scan
+ (absent ⇒ every row is treated as `SKIPPED` and a TRIGGERED name is capped
+ to `HOLD-REVIEW` — never silently clean):
```bash
python3 skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_entry_signals.py \
--tickers "JNJ,PG,KO" \
--alpha-pp 0.5 \
+ --yield-floor 3.0 \
+ --profile balanced --safety-bias medium \
+ --events-json reports/kanchi_events_2026-05-17.json \
--output-dir reports/
```
## Workflow
### 1) Define mandate before screening
Collect and lock the parameters first:
- Objective: current cash income vs dividend growth.
- Max positions and position-size cap.
- Allowed instruments: stock only, or include REIT/BDC/ETF.
- Preferred account type context: taxable vs IRA-like accounts.
Load `references/default-thresholds.md` and apply baseline
settings unless the user overrides.
### 2) Build the investable universe
Start with a quality-biased universe:
- Core bucket: long dividend growth names (for example, Dividend Aristocrats style quality set).
- Satellite bucket: higher-yield sectors (utilities, telecom, REITs) in a separate risk bucket.
Use explicit source priority for ticker collection:
1. `skills/value-dividend-screener/scripts/screen_dividend_stocks.py` output (FMP/FINVIZ).
2. `skills/dividend-growth-pullback-screener/scripts/screen_dividend_growth_rsi.py` output.
3. User-provided broker export or manual ticker list when APIs are unavailable.
Return a ticker list grouped by bucket before moving forward.
### 3) Apply Kanchi Step 1 (yield filter with trap flag)
Primary rule:
- - `forward_dividend_yield >= 3.5%`
-
- Trap controls:
- - Flag extreme yield (`>= 8%`) as `deep-dive-required`.
- - Flag sudden jump in payout as potential special dividend artifact.
+ - Step-1 yield = the **regular forward yield** = `latest_declared_regular
+ dividend × cadence-implied frequency / price` (WS-1 `dividend_basis.py`).
+ Never use `profile.lastDiv` / TTM — it lags the latest declared raise
+ (defect D5) and silently bundles specials (D4).
+ - Apply the profile floor (income-now 4.0% / balanced 3.0% / growth-first
+ 1.5%) to the **regular** yield only.
- Output:
- - `PASS` or `FAIL` per ticker.
- - `deep-dive-required` flag for potential yield traps.
+ Trap & freshness controls (machine-emitted by `dividend_basis.py`):
+ - `special_dividend_flag` → exclude specials; report regular vs ttm yield.
+ - `variable_policy_flag` → `FAIL` (CALM-style; not an income base).
+ - `cut_flag` → `FAIL`; `suspension_flag` → `FAIL`.
+ - `freeze_flag` → `HOLD-REVIEW` (income cash-cow exception decided in
+ Step 8 synthesis only if safety is clean & unblocked).
+ - **Data Freshness Gate**: if the regular yield is within ±0.20pp of the
+ floor (`floor_borderline`) and the latest declared dividend is not
+ confirmed from an authoritative source, emit `STEP1-RECHECK` — **never a
+ hard FAIL** (this is the CFR D5 fix).
- ### 4) Apply Kanchi Step 2 (growth and safety)
+ ### 4) Apply Kanchi Step 2 (growth and safety) — sector-dispatched
- Require:
- - Revenue and EPS trend positive on multi-year horizon.
- - Dividend trend non-declining over the review period.
+ Safety is **sector-specific** — a uniform GAAP/FCF triad mis-judges banks
+ (FCF meaningless) and regulated utilities (FCF structurally negative).
+ Use `references/sector-step2-modules.md`; the deterministic dispatch is
+ `scripts/payout_safety.py`.
- Add safety checks:
- - Payout ratio and FCF payout ratio in reasonable range.
- - Debt burden and interest coverage not deteriorating.
+ - Always compute the **payout triad**: GAAP-EPS payout, Adjusted-EPS
+ payout, FCF payout. The safety verdict uses **Adjusted-EPS + FCF**
+ (consumer), or the sector module (bank / utility / insurer).
+ - `adjusted_eps_source = UNAVAILABLE` ⇒ cap `HOLD-REVIEW` (fail-safe;
+ never a silent PASS).
+ - GAAP↔Adjusted EPS divergence > 25% ⇒ Step-4 one-off flag.
+ - A merger **completed within 4 quarters** presumes GAAP EPS is distorted
+ ⇒ force the adjusted path or `HOLD-REVIEW` (FITB/Comerica golden case).
+ - Regulated utilities: **negative FCF is not an auto-FAIL** — judge on
+ FFO/debt + allowed ROE + rate-case + equity-issuance risk.
- When trend is mixed but not broken, classify as `HOLD-FOR-REVIEW` instead of hard reject.
+ When trend is mixed but not broken, classify as `HOLD-REVIEW` instead of
+ hard reject.
### 5) Apply Kanchi Step 3 (valuation) with US sector mapping
Use `references/valuation-and-one-off-checks.md` and apply
sector-specific valuation logic:
- Financials: `PER x PBR` can remain primary.
- REITs: use `P/FFO` or `P/AFFO` instead of plain `P/E`.
- Asset-light sectors: combine forward `P/E`, `P/FCF`, and historical range.
Always report which valuation method was used for each ticker.
### 6) Apply Kanchi Step 4 (one-off event filter)
Reject or downgrade names where recent profits rely on one-time effects:
- Asset sale gains, litigation settlement, tax effect spikes.
- Margin spike unsupported by sales trend.
- Repeated "one-time/non-recurring" adjustments.
Record one-line evidence for each `FAIL` to keep auditability.
+ ### 6b) Apply Kanchi Step 4b (forward structural-event scan)
+
+ Step 4 is backward-looking; Step 4b catches *pending/recent* structural
+ events (the MKC-Unilever miss, D3). For each surviving candidate, run a
+ WebSearch + issuer-IR/SEC check using the **source hierarchy**: issuer IR
+ → SEC filing (8-K/10-Q/10-K/proxy/S-4) → exchange/company deck →
+ reputable wire → finance portals (secondary only). Record findings into a
+ curated events JSON and pass it via `build_entry_signals.py --events-json`.
+
+ - Only a **major structural event** caps the verdict to `HOLD-REVIEW`
+ (tx > 10% mcap, share issuance > 10–20%, leverage +0.5x EBITDA,
+ control/listing/HQ change, merger-of-equals / RMT / spin-off / large
+ asset sale, dividend/rating/leverage-policy change, sector-specific
+ materiality, or rolling-24m cumulative M&A > 15% mcap). Minor bolt-ons
+ are a CAUTION note only.
+ - **Pessimistic cap**: `FAILED-DEGRADED` / `SKIPPED` / `NO_EVENT_FOUND`
+ on a Step-5 TRIGGERED name ⇒ `HOLD-REVIEW` + **T1 BLOCKED**. WebSearch
+ unavailable (web app / offline) is treated the same — never a silent
+ skip. `CLEAN_CONFIRMED` (primary source checked) is stronger than
+ `NO_EVENT_FOUND` (search only).
+
### 7) Apply Kanchi Step 5 (buy on weakness with rules)
Set entry triggers mechanically:
- Yield trigger: current yield above 5y average yield + alpha (default `+0.5pp`).
- Valuation trigger: target multiple reached (`P/E`, `P/FFO`, or `P/FCF`).
Execution pattern:
- Split orders: `40% -> 30% -> 30%`.
- - Require one-sentence sanity check before each add: "thesis intact vs structural break".
+ - **Pre-order blockers**: if a candidate has any unresolved
+ `pre_order_blockers[]` (from WS-1/2/3 — variable/cut/suspension,
+ adjusted-EPS-unavailable, GAAP/Adj divergence, bank credit, utility
+ FFO/debt, event-scan failed/skipped, stale dividend, …) OR
+ `t1_blocked` is true, the first tranche is **blocked or downsized to a
+ ≤20% tracking tranche** — not 40%.
+ - **Sector cluster risk**: when ≥ `SECTOR_CLUSTER_WARN_COUNT` same-sector
+ names pass (e.g. many small banks share one macro beta), emit a
+ portfolio-level `CLUSTER-RISK` warning.
+ - Require one-sentence sanity check before each *unblocked* add: "thesis
+ intact vs structural break".
### 8) Produce standardized outputs
- Always produce three artifacts:
- 1. Screening table (`PASS`, `HOLD-FOR-REVIEW`, `FAIL` with evidence).
- 2. One-page stock memo (use `references/stock-note-template.md`).
- 3. Limit-order plan with split sizing and invalidation condition.
+ Always produce:
+ 1. Screening table with the **actionable verdict tier**: `CLEAN-PASS`,
+ `PASS-CAUTION`, `CONDITIONAL-PASS`, `HOLD-REVIEW`, `STEP1-RECHECK`,
+ `FAIL` (synthesized by `verdict.py` from Step 1 + Step 2 + Step 4b +
+ blockers). Include evidence per row.
+ 2. One-page stock memo (use `references/stock-note-template.md`) with the
+ per-ticker **provenance block** (price/dividend/payout/event sources,
+ `unresolved_blockers`, `evidence_refs[]`).
+ 3. Limit-order plan with split sizing, blocker gate, and invalidation.
+ 4. Top-level **run_context** (profile, yield_floor_pct, safety_bias,
+ universe_source, excluded_asset_types) so a 3%-run result is never
+ silently reused inside a 4%-run.
## Output
Return and/or generate:
1. SOP screening summary in markdown.
2. Underwriting memo set based on
`references/stock-note-template.md`.
3. Optional plan artifact file generated by
`skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_sop_plan.py` in `reports/`.
4. Optional Step 5 entry-signal artifacts generated by
`skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_entry_signals.py` in `reports/`.
## Cadence
Use this minimum rhythm:
- Weekly (15 min): check dividend and business-news changes only.
- Monthly (30 min): rerun screening and refresh order levels.
- Quarterly (60 min): deep safety review using latest filings/earnings.
## Multi-Skill Handoff
Run this skill first, then hand off outputs:
1. To `kanchi-dividend-review-monitor` for daily/weekly/quarterly anomaly detection.
2. To `kanchi-dividend-us-tax-accounting` for account-location and tax classification planning.
## Guardrails
- - Do not issue blind buy calls without Step 4 and safety checks.
+ - Do not issue blind buy calls without Step 4, Step 4b and safety checks.
- Do not treat high yield as value before validating coverage quality.
- - Keep assumptions explicit when data is missing.
+ - Use the **regular** forward yield for Step 1, never a special/TTM-inclusive
+ figure; near-floor + unconfirmed ⇒ `STEP1-RECHECK`, not FAIL.
+ - A failed/skipped event scan on a TRIGGERED name ⇒ `HOLD-REVIEW` + T1
+ blocked. Never silently skip Step 4b.
+ - Keep assumptions explicit; `adjusted_eps`/data missing ⇒ fail-safe
+ `HOLD-REVIEW`, never silent PASS.
## Resources
- - `skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_sop_plan.py`: deterministic SOP plan generator.
- - `skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/tests/test_build_sop_plan.py`: tests for plan generation.
- - `skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/build_entry_signals.py`: Step 5 target-buy calculator (`5y avg yield + alpha`).
- - `skills/kanchi-dividend-sop/scripts/tests/test_build_entry_signals.py`: tests for signal calculations.
- - `references/default-thresholds.md`: baseline thresholds and profile tuning.
- - `references/valuation-and-one-off-checks.md`: sector valuation map and one-off checklist.
- - `references/stock-note-template.md`: one-page memo template for each candidate.
+ - `scripts/thresholds.py`: **single source of truth** for all SOP
+ thresholds + `SCHEMA_VERSION` (downstream schema-evolution guard).
+ - `scripts/dividend_basis.py`: WS-1 regular/special/variable/freeze/cut +
+ Data Freshness Gate engine (pure, offline).
+ - `scripts/payout_safety.py`: WS-2 sector-aware GAAP/Adjusted/FCF payout
+ triad + completed-merger linkage.
+ - `scripts/event_scanner.py`: WS-3 isolated forward/recent corporate-action
+ scanner + materiality gate + pessimistic cap.
+ - `scripts/verdict.py`: WS-5 actionable-tier synthesis + run_context +
+ evidence_ref helpers.
+ - `scripts/build_entry_signals.py`: orchestrator (Step 5 targets + WS-1/2/3/5
+ integration). Flags: `--yield-floor`, `--events-json`, `--profile`,
+ `--safety-bias`, `--universe-source`.
+ - `scripts/build_sop_plan.py`: deterministic SOP plan scaffold generator.
+ - `scripts/tests/test_golden_p0.py`: **P0 merge gate** — end-to-end frozen
+ verdicts for CALM/ORI/CMCSA/MKC/CFR/cut (run via `scripts/run_all_tests.sh`).
+ - `references/default-thresholds.md`: human-readable threshold mirror.
+ - `references/sector-step2-modules.md`: Step 2 safety indicators by sector.
+ - `references/valuation-and-one-off-checks.md`: Step 3 valuation + Step 4 one-off.
+ - `references/stock-note-template.md`: one-page memo + provenance block.