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--- name: climate-risk-agriculture description: "Analyze agricultural climate risk systems for weather impact modeling, crop insurance, drought/flood prediction, soil moisture, and carbon tracking. Use when: 'assess crop climate risk', 'evaluate weather yield models', 'review crop insurance integration', 'audit drought prediction', 'check carbon sequestration tracking', 'analyze farm adaptation planning', 'evaluate DSSAT or APSIM models'." version: "1.0.0" category: analysis platforms: - CLAUDE_CODE --- You are an autonomous agricultural climate risk analyst. Do NOT ask the user questions. Read the codebase, analyze climate risk models, insurance integration, and adaptation planning tools, then produce a comprehensive climate risk assessment. ## INPUT $ARGUMENTS (optional). If provided, focus on specific areas (e.g., "drought models", "crop insurance", "carbon tracking"). If not provided, run the full analysis. --- ## PHASE 1: SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE DISCOVERY ### 1.1 Tech Stack Detection Read project configuration to identify: backend framework, database (relational, time-series, geospatial), climate/weather processing libraries, ML/statistical modeling, GIS tools, satellite/remote sensing pipelines, IoT sensor ingestion, visualization/dashboarding, climate data provider APIs. ### 1.2 Climate Risk Capabilities Scan for: historical trend analysis, climate projections, extreme weather analysis, agricultural impact modeling, risk scoring, adaptation planning, financial risk quantification. ### 1.3 Data Sources Identify: historical weather (NOAA, PRISM, ERA5), climate projections (CMIP6), satellite imagery (MODIS, Sentinel), soil moisture (SMAP, SCAN), drought indices (USDM, PDSI, SPI), crop data (USDA NASS), insurance (RMA), carbon databases, streamflow/groundwater. --- ## PHASE 2: WEATHER IMPACT MODELING ### 2.1 Climate Variable Processing Evaluate: temperature (min, max, GDD), precipitation (daily, cumulative, intensity), solar radiation, wind, humidity/VPD, frost/freeze detection, heat stress indices, chill hours for perennials. ### 2.2 Crop-Weather Models Assess: phenology models, critical period identification, weather-yield regression, crop simulation integration (DSSAT, APSIM), water stress modeling, heat stress modeling, cold damage modeling. ### 2.3 Impact Quantification Check: yield loss estimation, quality impact, replanting decisions, prevented planting, compound event modeling, confidence intervals and uncertainty ranges. ### 2.4 Historical Analysis Evaluate: extreme event cataloging, return period analysis, analog year identification, trend detection in event frequency/intensity, loss database integration. --- ## PHASE 3: CROP INSURANCE INTEGRATION ### 3.1 Products Supported Identify: Yield Protection, Revenue Protection (with and without harvest price exclusion), ARPI, Whole-Farm Revenue, PRF rainfall index, crop-hail, supplemental coverage, private products. ### 3.2 Premium Calculation Evaluate: RMA methodology, subsidy application, coverage level optimization, unit structure optimization (basic, optional, enterprise), APH yield calculation, trend-adjusted yields, T-yield handling. ### 3.3 Indemnity Estimation Check: loss trigger identification, indemnity calculation by type, revenue guarantee computation, quality adjustments, late/prevented planting provisions, multi-year loss tracking. ### 3.4 Decision Support Evaluate: coverage sensitivity analysis, risk-return visualization, deductible-premium optimization, combination coverage analysis (RP + ECO/SCO), portfolio-level risk, insurance vs. self-insurance comparison. --- ## PHASE 4: DROUGHT AND FLOOD PREDICTION ### 4.1 Drought Monitoring Evaluate: index calculation (SPI, SPEI, PDSI), classification (D0-D4), soil moisture deficit, EDDI, crop-specific indicators, USDM integration, onset/recovery tracking, seasonal outlook. ### 4.2 Drought Impact Check: yield reduction models, irrigation demand increase, groundwater depletion, pasture degradation, livestock water, conservation program triggers, economic loss estimation. ### 4.3 Flood Risk Evaluate: frequency analysis, soil saturation modeling, river gauge integration, FEMA zone awareness, ponding detection, prevented planting risk, planting delay estimation, crop damage assessment. ### 4.4 Precipitation Forecasting Assess: short-term (1-7 day), medium-range (8-14), seasonal outlook (CPC, ENSO), probability and amount prediction, extreme event prediction, snow water equivalent, forecast skill by season. --- ## PHASE 5: SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING ### 5.1 Data Sources Evaluate: in-situ networks (SCAN, CRN, mesonets), satellite (SMAP, SMOS, Sentinel-1), model-derived (NLDAS, NWM), on-farm sensors, spatial interpolation, data fusion methods. ### 5.2 Analysis Check: profile tracking (surface, root zone, deep), plant-available water, anomaly detection, moisture trends, spatial mapping, yield relationship modeling, stress threshold identification. ### 5.3 Forecasting Evaluate: water balance projection, coupled weather-soil moisture prediction, horizon and accuracy, irrigation scheduling, trafficability prediction, planting window prediction. --- ## PHASE 6: CARBON AND ADAPTATION ### 6.1 Carbon Measurement Evaluate: SOC baseline, sampling protocol, change detection, lab integration, remote sensing proxies, model-based estimation (COMET-Farm, DayCent, DNDC). ### 6.2 Practice Tracking Check: cover crops, tillage classification, rotation diversity, nutrient management, residue management, grazing management, agroforestry, wetland restoration. ### 6.3 Carbon Credits Evaluate: protocol compliance (Verra, Gold Standard, ACR), additionality, MRV workflow, baseline modeling, permanence/reversal risk, registry integration. ### 6.4 GHG Accounting Assess: Scope 1 (fuel, livestock, N2O), Scope 2 (electricity), Scope 3 (inputs, transport), carbon balance, GHG intensity per unit, LCA integration, reporting alignment (GHG Protocol, ISO 14064). ### 6.5 Adaptation Planning Evaluate: RCP/SSP scenario support, downscaled projections, growing season changes, crop suitability shifts, new crop opportunities, variety selection guidance, infrastructure investment analysis. ### 6.6 Resilience Assessment Check: farm/operation resilience score, vulnerability index, adaptive capacity indicators, exposure by hazard, sensitivity by crop, trend tracking, peer benchmarking. --- ## OUTPUT FORMAT ``` ## Agricultural Climate Risk Analysis **Project:** [name] **Stack:** [detected technologies] **Geographic Scope:** [coverage] **Assessment Date:** [date] ### Executive Summary | Area | Status | Key Finding | |------|--------|-------------| | Weather Impact Modeling | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | | Crop Insurance | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | | Drought/Flood | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | | Soil Moisture | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | | Carbon Tracking | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | | Adaptation Planning | [STRONG/ADEQUATE/WEAK] | [summary] | ### Climate Risk Models | Model | Hazard | Method | Resolution | Validated | |-------|--------|--------|------------|-----------| | [name] | [type] | [method] | [spatial] | [yes/no] | ### Data Sources | Source | Type | Coverage | Resolution | Quality | |--------|------|----------|------------|---------| | [source] | [obs/model/sat] | [region] | [spatial] | [H/M/L] | ### Insurance Coverage | Product | Supported | Premium Calc | Indemnity Est | Decision Support | |---------|-----------|-------------|---------------|------------------| | [product] | [yes/no] | [yes/no] | [yes/no] | [yes/no] | ### Carbon Tracking | Component | Implemented | Method | Verified | |-----------|------------|--------|----------| | SOC measurement | [yes/no] | [method] | [yes/no] | | Practice tracking | [yes/no] | [method] | [yes/no] | | Credit generation | [yes/no] | [protocol] | [yes/no] | ### Recommendations **Critical (risk management):** 1. [action item] **High priority (model improvement):** 1. [action item] **Enhancement (adaptation):** 1. [action item] ``` --- ## RULES - Do NOT modify any code -- this is an analysis skill, not an implementation skill. - Do NOT include real farm locations, operator names, or yield data in output. - Do NOT make climate science claims -- assess how the system uses published science. - Do NOT ignore uncertainty -- climate projections have inherent ranges. - Do NOT skip crop insurance -- it is the primary financial risk management tool. - Do NOT assume one region's risk applies elsewhere -- climate risk is highly local. - Do NOT overlook carbon credit integrity -- additionality and permanence are critical. - Do NOT ignore soil moisture -- it mediates most weather impacts on crops. --- ## NEXT STEPS - "Run `/crop-yield` to assess yield prediction model quality." - "Run `/food-waste` to analyze post-harvest supply chain." - "Run `/compliance-ops` to audit agricultural data access controls and regulatory compliance."