git:20260614.5208b4c to git:20260615.1734111

25 added, 31 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: ddm-valuation

multi_ticker_semantics: target_with_optional_peers

description: Dividend Discount Model, DDM valuation, multi-stage dividend model, Gordon Growth Model, dividend growth valuation, mature company valuation, income stock valuation, dividend yield analysis

temporal_scope:

default_quarters: 4

max_quarters: 20

description: "Dividend history requires 5+ years; forecast up to 10 years"

allowed_tools:

- search_xbrl_facts

- get_realtime_quote

- search_earnings_calendar

retrieval_scope: structured_only

min_tool_diversity: 3

---

# Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Multi-stage DDM for mature dividend-paying companies. Values a stock as the present value of all expected future dividends. Especially appropriate for financials (JPM, BAC), utilities (DUK, SO), consumer staples (PG, KO), and REITs — where dividends are the primary mechanism of shareholder returns.

## Preflight

- !curl -s -o /dev/null -w "%{http_code}" --max-time 2 https://mcp.agentii.ai/mcp/health 2>/dev/null || echo "UNREACHABLE"

- **Ticker resolution ** and **Workspace style.md override check ** apply. **`get_realtime_quote` availability **: If not deployed, prompt user for current price and dividend yield. Beta from industry average (Damodaran) as fallback.

+ Run the canonical pre-flight sequence — MCP health probe, ticker resolution, workspace `style.md` override, memory load, and coverage check. See `contracts/preflight.md`.

- **Agent Call Tracing**: The first tool you call will return a `_run_id` in its result. On every subsequent tool call, include HTTP header `X-Agentii-Trace: agent={skill_name}; parent={caller_name}; instance={instance_label}`. The MCP server will inject run_id, depth, and user_id automatically. When spawning parallel sub-agents of the same type, assign each a unique instance label (e.g., equity-research-1, equity-research-2). See `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md` for the full contract.

+ Include the `X-Agentii-Trace` header on every tool call per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`.

## Triggers

- dividend discount model {ticker}

- DDM valuation {ticker}

- dividend growth valuation {ticker}

- Gordon Growth Model {ticker}

- multi-stage DDM {ticker}

- income stock valuation {ticker}

- dividend yield analysis {ticker}

- value {ticker} by dividends

- mature company valuation {ticker}

- dividend-based fair value {ticker}

## Defaults

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| stages | 3 | Explicit → Transition → Maturity |

| explicit_years | 5 | Years of explicit dividend forecast |

| transition_years | 5 | Years of declining growth |

| terminal_growth | 2.5% | Long-term perpetual growth (GDP proxy) |

## Methodology

### Retrieval Scope

`structured_only` — DDM uses dividend history from XBRL + current price + earnings estimates.

### Retrieval Strategy

- Follows the retrieval strategy decision tree in `retrieval.md`. Primary branch: **(a) Structured Data Query**. Resolve the canonical ticker first (exact → fuzzy alias → share-class) before any data call.

+ See `contracts/retrieval.md` for the canonical decision tree; skill-specific retrieval detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

### Temporal Scope

Default lookback: 4 fiscal quarter(s); maximum: 20. The default balances recency against the trend window this analysis requires.

### Tool Allowlist

Per frontmatter `allowed_tools`:

- `search_xbrl_facts` — primary structured financial facts (is_primary default)

- `get_realtime_quote` — latest market price for valuation cross-checks

- `search_earnings_calendar` — EPS actual/estimate/surprise + report dates

### Protocol

- 1. **Pre-retrieval**: `get_company_fiscal_calendar/{ticker}` then `get_ticker_coverage/{ticker}` .

- 2. **Applicability check**: `search_xbrl_facts(ticker, concept=["Dividends", "CommonStockDividendsPerShareDeclared"], fiscal_year=[latest, latest-1, latest-2, latest-3, latest-4])` and `get_realtime_quote(ticker)` for dividend_yield. If no dividend history: flag "DDM not applicable — company does not pay dividends. Use DCF or Residual Income instead."

- 3. **Dividend profile**: compute historical DPS growth rate (3yr/5yr CAGR), payout ratio (DPS / EPS), dividend coverage (EPS / DPS >1.5 = comfortable).

- 4. **Cost of equity**: CAPM — risk-free rate (10Y UST), equity risk premium (~5%), beta from `get_realtime_quote`. Ke = Rf + β × ERP.

- 5. **Multi-stage model**:

- - **Stage 1 (Explicit)**: forecast DPS for next 5 years using consensus EPS × payout ratio (from `search_earnings_calendar`).

- - **Stage 2 (Transition)**: DPS growth linearly declines from Stage 1 rate to terminal growth rate over 5 years.

- - **Stage 3 (Maturity)**: perpetual DPS growing at terminal rate (Gordon Growth: TV = DPS_terminal × (1+g) / (Ke - g).

- 6. **Fair value**: PV of Stage 1 dividends + PV of Stage 2 dividends + PV of terminal value = per-share fair value.

- 7. **Output**: per with YAML frontmatter .

+ Step-by-step execution detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

## Output File

- Write to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_ddm-valuation_dividend-model.md` .

+ Write the final deliverable to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_ddm-valuation_{affix}.md`.

## Output Structure

- 1. **Executive Summary** — per-share fair value, premium/discount to current price, implied dividend yield

- 2. **Dividend Profile** — historical DPS, growth rate, payout ratio, coverage ratio, dividend consistency

- 3. **Cost of Equity** — CAPM decomposition: Rf, β, ERP → Ke

- 4. **Stage 1 — Explicit Forecast** — projected DPS per year with growth assumptions

- 5. **Stage 2 — Transition** — declining growth trajectory

- 6. **Stage 3 — Terminal Value** — Gordon Growth perpetuity

- 7. **Sensitivity** — fair value at varying Ke (±1%, ±2%) and terminal growth (±0.5%, ±1%)

- 8. **Applicability Note** — if dividends are irregular or newly initiated, flag model limitations

- 9. **Coverage Gaps & Citations**

+ The deliverable is a structured markdown report written to the path in `## Output File`. Full section-by-section template (headings, tables, and field definitions) lives in `references/output-structure.md`. Required elements:

- **Citation density**: ≥1 citation per 200 words. **Citation link format ** and **agentii.md append ** apply.

+ 1. **Executive Summary** — headline conclusions (≤200 words).

+ 2. **Core analysis sections** — per this skill's methodology and analyst modes.

+ 3. **Data classification** — tag findings `[FACT]` / `[DEDUCTED]` / `[VIEW]` per `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ 4. **Coverage Gaps & Citations** — inline `/v/` citations are PRIMARY (immediately after each fact); the bottom **Citations** section is a non-duplicative roll-up index.

+ 5. **Output frontmatter** — emit the FR-090 structured block per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

+ **Citations & memory**: follow `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link; a bottom **Citations** section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable `/v/` URLs; and append the run to `agentii.md` per `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

## Validation Gates

1. **Dividend consistency**: DPS must be positive in ≥4 of last 5 years. *If failed*: flag "Dividend history insufficient for reliable DDM — consider Residual Income or DCF."

2. **Growth sustainability**: DPS growth rate must not exceed sustainable growth rate (ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio). *If failed*: flag "Dividend growth exceeds sustainable rate — imply future dilution or leverage increase."

3. **Terminal value reasonableness**: Terminal value must be <80% of total fair value. *If failed*: flag "Terminal value dominates (>80% of fair value) — model highly sensitive to terminal assumptions."

## Tool Fallbacks

- | Tool | Failure Mode | Fallback Action |

- |------|-------------|-----------------|

- | `get_realtime_quote` | Beta unavailable | Use industry average beta or prompt user for manual input |

- | `search_earnings_calendar` | No consensus EPS | Use historical EPS trend for payout projection |

+ Per-tool failure modes and fallback actions are tabulated in `references/tool-fallbacks.md`.

+ ## Memory & Snapshot

+ - **Memory load** (pre-flight): load prior workspace context for the ticker before retrieval — see `contracts/memory-load.md`.

+ - **Structured output frontmatter**: emit the FR-090 block (`key_metrics`, `conclusions`, `facts_count`, `deducted_count`, `views_count`, `citation_count`) per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

+ - **Snapshot synthesis**: after writing the deliverable, update the two-tier snapshot and classify findings as `[FACT]`/`[DEDUCTED]`/`[VIEW]` — see `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ - **Session archival**: record the run under `sessions/{YYYY-MM-DD}/` and update `sessions/INDEX.md` per `contracts/session-format.md`.

+ ## Final Summary (TUI)

+ End the closing chat reply with a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts), each a clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link, so the user can cmd+click straight to the exact SEC page. See `contracts/citation-and-memory.md`.

## Error Handling

| Failure Mode | Action | User-Facing Message |

|-------------|--------|---------------------|

| No dividend history | Halt; redirect to DCF or Residual Income | "{ticker} does not pay dividends — DDM not applicable. Use DCF or Residual Income." |

| Zero or negative beta | Prompt user for manual beta input | "Beta unavailable for {ticker}. Please provide beta estimate." |