git:20260512.9addfe3 to git:20260512.a4ba040

- Daily DeFi read with regime verdict (RISK-ON / NEUTRAL / RISK-OFF), biggest movers with one-line

- causal reasoning, sustainable-vs-incentive yield decomposition, and fee leaders. The decision

- layer above raw DefiLlama data. Use for morning context, daily allocation decisions, or as input

- to rebalancing skills.

- Triggers: "DeFi read", "what's happening in DeFi today", "regime check", "yield decomposition",

- "is this APY real or emissions", "fee leaders today".

- The decision layer above DefiLlama. Where Trails, Zyfai, and the lending skills execute, this informs — one read per day on the regime, the biggest TVL movers with causal reasoning, and the yields that are actually sustainable vs being paid for in inflation.

- One of **RISK-ON** / **NEUTRAL** / **RISK-OFF**. Derived from named, reproducible inputs:

- | Input | RISK-ON signal | RISK-OFF signal |

- |---|---|---|

- | 24h aggregate TVL change | Up across majors | Down across majors |

- | 24h DEX volume vs 30d avg | > 1.2× | < 0.8× |

- | Leverage utilization on top lending markets | Rising into 70%+ | Falling, or capped |

- | Stablecoin flows (net mint vs burn) | Net mint | Net burn |

- | Perp funding rates on majors | Positive across the curve | Negative or sharply mixed |

- Verdict is reproducible from these inputs. Every output lists them with values.

- Top 5 TVL gainers and top 5 losers across chains. Per row:

-

- - Protocol + chain.

- - 24h TVL delta ($ and %).

- - **One-line "why it matters"** — the causal driver if identifiable (incentive launch, exploit, depeg, narrative, liquidation cascade). If unclear, the row explicitly says "no obvious driver".

-

- ## Yield decomposition

-

- For the top protocols by TVL on each major chain (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, mainnet, Solana):

-

- | Component | What it means |

- |---|---|

- | **Sustainable yield** | Real revenue: fees, borrowing demand, MEV capture share. |

- | **Incentive yield** | Emissions, points programs, expected airdrop value. |

- | **Sustainable share** | Sustainable / (Sustainable + Incentive). |

-

- Yields with **sustainable share < 20%** are flagged `incentive-dependent` — they evaporate when emissions end. This is the headline insight on most "high APY" plays and the cleanest filter for which yields to LP into.

-

- ## Fee leaders

-

- Top 10 protocols by 24h fees + 7-day trend. Fees > TVL for DeFi fundamentals — fees separate product-market fit from incentive-pumped TVL.

-

- ## Data sources

-

- | Source | Data |

- |---|---|

- | DefiLlama | TVL, fees, yields. `https://api.llama.fi`, `https://api.llama.fi/overview/fees`. |

- | GeckoTerminal | DEX volumes. |

- | On-chain RPC | Live verification for top movers (Bankr-compatible endpoints). |

- | Perp aggregators | Funding rates (Hyperliquid, dYdX, GMX). |

-

- ```bash

- # Aggregate TVL change

- curl -s "https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/All" | jq '.[-2:]'

-

- # Fees overview (24h)

- curl -s "https://api.llama.fi/overview/fees?excludeTotalDataChart=true" | jq '.protocols[:20]'

-

- # Per-protocol yields (with breakdown)

- curl -s "https://yields.llama.fi/pools" | jq '.data[] | select(.tvlUsd > 10000000)'

- ```

-

- ## Output

-

- ```

- *DeFi Overview — 2026-05-12*

-

- Regime: RISK-OFF

- TVL -2.1% (24h, across majors)

- DEX vol 0.71× 30d avg

- Leverage util peaking at 78% on Aave Base

- Stablecoin: net burn $-180M (24h)

- Funding: negative across BTC/ETH perps

-

- Top movers ↑

- Aerodrome (base) +$120M (+4.3%) — large LP migration from competing DEX

- Pendle (arb) +$45M (+8.1%) — new restaking PT series

-

- Top movers ↓

- GMX V1 (arb) -$80M (-8%) — v2 migration deadline

- Spark (eth) -$60M (-3%) — savings DAI rate cut

-

- Yield decomposition (top 10 by TVL, sustainable share):

- 6 of 10 incentive-dependent (sustainable share < 20%)

- Notable: $protocol APY 14% (real 1.8%, emissions 12.2%)

- Notable: $protocol APY 9% (real 7.1%, emissions 1.9%) ← real product

-

- Fee leaders (24h)

- 1. Hyperliquid — $2.4M (▲ 7d)

- 2. Aerodrome — $1.8M (▲ 7d)

- 3. Uniswap — $1.6M (▼ 7d)

- ...

- ```

- ## Guidelines

- - Sustainable vs incentive is the headline lens. Without it, "high APY" is meaningless.

- - One-line "why it matters" or admit the cause is unclear. No filler.

- - Regime verdict is reproducible from named inputs — never vibes.

- - Fees > TVL for fundamentals. A protocol with declining TVL but rising fees is healthier than the reverse.

- - Cross-chain by default — most agents operating on Base also care what's happening on mainnet and Arbitrum.

- ## Required keys

- None — public APIs only. Optional Bankr-compatible RPC for cross-checks.

- ## Pairs with

- - `aeon-monitor-runners` (the moving tokens within these regimes).

- - `aeon-unlock-monitor` (supply pressure in a RISK-OFF regime hits harder).

- - Bankr Trails / Zyfai for execution once the call is made.