git:20260512.574b491 to git:20260512.a4ba040

- Weekly token unlock and vesting tracker — quantifies supply pressure via Absorption Ratio

- (unlock_usd / 7d avg daily volume), classifies cliff vs linear, delivers a one-line market read

- per event (priced in / market asleep / fade pump / forced sellers / absorbable). Use ahead of

- supply events to position around them or as input to token-pick.

- "are unlocks priced in", "track FTX/Mt Gox distributions".

- Token unlocks ranked by **Absorption Ratio** instead of the weak "% of circulating supply" proxy. Empirically (Keyrock's analysis of 16k+ historical unlocks), ratios above ~2.4× consistently strain liquidity and produce measurable drawdown; below ~0.5× the market typically yawns.

-

- Each event also carries a cliff-vs-linear classification, a 30-day pre-unlock price-action read, and an explicit verdict the operator can act on.

- Absorption Ratio = unlock_usd_value / avg_daily_volume_usd_7d

- ```

-

- | Tier | Ratio | Meaning |

- |---|---|---|

- | **CRISIS** | > 2.4× | Liquidity cannot absorb without significant slippage. |

- | **STRAIN** | 1.0× – 2.4× | Multiple sessions to digest. |

- | **DIGESTIBLE** | 0.3× – 1.0× | Notable but absorbable. |

- | **TRIVIAL** | < 0.3× | Background noise. |

- **Recipient overrides:**

- - `team` / `investor` with cost-basis-zero gets bumped up one tier (different selling behavior than airdrop recipients).

- - `community` / `staking-reward` gets bumped down one tier.

- **Court-ordered distributions** (FTX, Mt. Gox, Celsius) bypass the tier system entirely — always included, labeled `forced`, with the legal timeline.

- Per event:

-

- | **`priced in`** | Token down > 20% over 30d AND tier ≤ STRAIN. Selling has happened; unlock may mark a bottom. |

- | **`market asleep`** | Flat or up over 30d AND tier ≥ STRAIN. Asymmetric downside; move hasn't started. |

- | **`fade pump`** | Up > 15% over 30d AND tier = CRISIS. Classic pre-cliff bid-and-dump. |

- | **`forced sellers`** | Court-ordered. Different beast — legal timeline, not market-driven. |

- | **`absorbable`** | TRIVIAL/DIGESTIBLE, no recipient flag. |

-

- ## Data sources

-

- | Source | Used for |

- |---|---|

- | **tokenomist.ai** | Primary, source-verified across 500+ tokens, cliff/linear labeled. |

- | **defillama.com/unlocks** | DeFi protocols with $ values. |

- | **cryptorank.io/token-unlock** | Broad coverage, recipient-category labeled. |

- | **dropstab.com/vesting** | Cross-source verification. |

- | **coingecko.com** | Volume, price, 30d change for the denominator. |

-

- Source status (`ok` / `fail` per provider) is emitted in the output. `UNLOCK_MONITOR_DEGRADED` if 2+ sources fail; `UNLOCK_MONITOR_ERROR` only if all fail.

-

- ## WebSearch queries (parallel)

-

- ```

- "token unlock schedule" "${week_of}" site:tokenomist.ai OR site:defillama.com

- "token unlock" "this week" cliff vesting team investor ${year}

- "upcoming unlocks" cryptorank OR dropstab ${year}

- "FTX distribution" OR "Mt. Gox" OR "Celsius" creditor crypto ${year}

- "$10M" OR "$50M" OR "$100M" token unlock ${week_of}

- ```

-

- ## Enrichment per candidate

-

- Fetch from CoinGecko / WebFetch on `https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/${slug}`:

-

- - 7-day average daily volume (USD) — denominator.

- - Spot price.

- - 30-day price change %.

- - Vesting structure: `cliff` / `linear` / `mixed`.

- - Recipient category: `team` / `investor` / `ecosystem` / `community` / `creditor`.

-

- If volume is unavailable, mark `vol=unknown`, tier conservatively, flag the gap.

- ## Dedup

- A local state file (e.g. `state/unlock-monitor-seen.json`) holds `${ticker}:${unlock_date}` keys on a 90-day rolling window. Skip exact matches against the file and against the last 7 days of prior outputs.

- Lead with the headline — the single most-leveraged unlock with its market read — then tiered groups (CRISIS → STRAIN → DIGESTIBLE → FORCED).

-

- ```

- *Unlock Monitor — week of 2026-05-12*

-

- This week's most leveraged: $XYZ unlocks Wed at $42M (3.1× daily vol). market asleep.

-

- CRISIS (> 2.4× daily vol)

- - $XYZ — Wed May 14 — 25M tokens (2.1% supply, $42M)

- cliff · investor · 3.1× vol · 30d -8% → market asleep

- Note: cliff pattern — expect weakness running into the date

-

- STRAIN (1.0×–2.4×)

- - $ABC — Mon — 1.6× vol · linear investor · 30d -25% → priced in

- - $DEF — Thu — 1.2× vol · cliff team · 30d +5% → market asleep

-

- DIGESTIBLE (0.3×–1.0×)

- - $GHI — Tue — 0.6× vol · linear · ecosystem → absorbable

-

- FORCED

- - $JKL — Mon — court-ordered creditor batch, $XM, no schedule discretion

-

- Supply read: pressure concentrated mid-week from one cliff. Linear flows quiet.

- $XYZ is the asymmetric setup — fade ripps into Wed, watch for capitulation Thu/Fri.

-

- sources: tokenomist=ok, defillama=ok, cryptorank=ok, dropstab=fail, coingecko=ok

- ```

-

- Quiet week: ship `UNLOCK_MONITOR_QUIET` with one sentence. Don't pad.

-

- ## Guidelines

-

- - Absorption Ratio is the headline. % of circulating supply is secondary context.

- - Team and investor unlocks at low cost basis are the strongest sell signals — bias the recipient override toward overstating impact.

- - Linear unlocks rarely produce single-day shocks. Say so when one lands high in the list.

- - Cliff pattern: weakness ~30d prior, vol peak on the date, recovery 10–14 days later.

- - Court-ordered distributions are forced liquidation under legal timelines — tier separately.

- - Cross-reference active narratives — unlocks during fading narratives hit harder.

- - Be direct. "this one's priced in", "market's asleep on this", "fade the pump". No hedging.

- - A quiet week on supply is a signal too.

-

- ## Required keys

- None — uses WebSearch + WebFetch only.

- ## Pairs with

- - `aeon-token-pick` — feeds in supply-side context per pick.

- - `aeon-narrative-tracker` — unlocks during fading narratives are weighted differently.