v1.1.10 to v1.1.11

---

name: polymarket-wallet-xray

description: X-ray any Polymarket wallet for skill level, entry quality, bot detection, arbitrage research, trader-profile comparison, and edge analysis. Queries Polymarket's public APIs with no authentication; use for research, not blind copytrading, and never assume past returns predict future results.

metadata:

author: Simmer (@simmer_markets)

displayName: Polymarket Wallet X-Ray

envVars:

- name: SIMMER_API_KEY

required: false

description: Optional, only for scripts/status.py to read your own Simmer account status. Public wallet analysis needs no key.

difficulty: beginner

attribution: Inspired by @thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale" analysis.

---

# Polymarket Wallet X-Ray

Analyze **any** Polymarket wallet's trading patterns, skill level, and edge detection.

**No authentication needed.** Queries Polymarket's public Data API v2 directly.

**Inspired by:** [The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878) by [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden)

> **Read-only research.** Public analysis reads wallet activity; the optional status helper reads your own Simmer account. Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before interpreting results.

> This skill implements the forensic trading analysis framework developed by @thejayden. Read the original post to understand the philosophy behind Time Profitable, hedge checks, bot detection, and accumulation signals.

> **This is an analysis tool, not a trading signal.** The skill returns forensic metrics for ANY Polymarket wallet — your agent uses them to UNDERSTAND traders, learn patterns, and make informed decisions. This is for education and research, not for blindly copying positions.

## ⚠️ Important Disclaimer

**Past performance does not guarantee future results.** A wallet's historical metrics tell you about:

- ✅ How they traded *in the past*

- ✅ Their *historical* win rate and entry quality

- ❌ NOT whether their strategy will work going forward

**Why copying is risky:**

- Market conditions change constantly

- A trader's edge might have been luck, timing, or specific to historical events

- Slippage and fees erode thin edges to zero

- Other traders copying the same strategy destroy the edge

**Use this skill to:**

- ✅ Learn what skilled traders look like (metrics, behavior)

- ✅ Identify potential anomalies (bots, arbitrageurs)

- ✅ Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline)

- ✅ Inform your own strategy decisions

**DO NOT use this skill to:**

- ❌ Automatically copytrade wallets

- ❌ Expect to replicate their returns

- ❌ Trade on these metrics without understanding why

## Setup Flow

Public wallet analysis requires only Python's standard library. No package install, SDK, API key, or wallet connection is needed. Run `wallet_xray.py` with a public Polymarket wallet address.

Only if the user explicitly asks for their own Simmer account status, use `scripts/status.py`. `SIMMER_API_KEY` is optional for this skill and used only by that helper. Have the user configure it in their environment outside chat, using the SDK tab at https://simmer.markets/dashboard. Never ask them to paste a key into chat or print it.

The status helper sends the key as a Bearer header only to `https://api.simmer.markets` for read-only portfolio and position queries. It exits before making a request when the key is unset. Neither script places orders or changes account settings.

## Quick Commands

All shortened `0x...` addresses below are placeholders. Replace them with complete public wallet addresses before running a command.

```bash

# Analyze a single wallet

python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd

# Compare two wallets head-to-head

python wallet_xray.py 0x1111... 0x2222... --compare

# Optional: read your own Simmer account status (requires SIMMER_API_KEY)

python scripts/status.py

```

**APIs Used:**

- Data API v2: `https://data-api.polymarket.com/v2/activity` — Wallet activity (cursor-paginated)

- Simmer API: `https://api.simmer.markets` — Optional authenticated account status via `scripts/status.py`

## What You Get Back

```json

{

"wallet": "0x1234...abcd",

"total_trades": 156,

"total_period_hours": 42.5,

"profitability": {

"time_profitable_pct": 75.3,

"win_rate_pct": 68.2,

"avg_profit_per_win": 0.035,

"avg_loss_per_loss": -0.018,

},

"entry_quality": {

"quality_rating": "B+",

},

"behavior": {

"is_bot_detected": false,

"trading_intensity": "high",

"avg_seconds_between_trades": 45,

"price_chasing": "moderate",

"accumulation_signal": "growing"

},

"edge_detection": {

"hedge_check_combined_avg": 0.98,

},

"risk_profile": {

"max_drawdown_pct": 12.5,

"volatility": "medium",

"max_position_concentration": 0.22

}

```

## How It Works

## Understanding the Metrics

## Usage Examples

### Research one wallet

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --json

```

### Compare historical profiles

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1111... 0x2222... --compare --json --limit 100

```

## Running the Skill

**Analyze a single wallet (default):**

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd

```

**Output as JSON (for scripts):**

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --json

```

**Compare two wallets:**

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1111... 0x2222... --compare

```

**Limit analysis to recent trades (faster):**

```bash

python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --limit 100

```

## Troubleshooting

**"Wallet has no trades"**

- This wallet hasn't traded yet, or all trades are too old

- Try a wallet you know is active

**"Analysis took too long"**

- For wallets with >500 trades, analysis can take 30+ seconds

- Use `--limit 100` to analyze only recent trades for faster results

**"API rate limited"**

- You're analyzing many wallets in quick succession

- Wait a minute before trying again, or use `--limit` to speed up individual analyses

**"Connection error"**

- Check that Polymarket's Data API v2 is reachable: `curl 'https://data-api.polymarket.com/v2/activity?user=0xYOUR_WALLET&limit=1'`

- If down, try again later or use `--limit 50` to reduce load

## Credits

This skill is based on the forensic trading analysis framework from [@thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale"](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878).

The original post shows how to:

- Spot fake gurus (high PnL, terrible entries)

- Detect bots (inhuman trading speed)

- Find arbitrage opportunities (hedged positions)

- Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline)

All metrics and analysis patterns used here are derived from that work. If you find this useful, give the original post a read and follow [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden).

## Links

- **Full Simmer API Reference:** [docs.simmer.markets/api/overview](https://docs.simmer.markets/api/overview)

- **Original Analysis:** [The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878)

- **Dashboard:** [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard?ref=sdk-skill&utm_campaign=sdk-skill)

- **Support:** [Telegram](https://t.me/+m7sN0OLM_780M2Fl)