anomaly-driven-abduction · diff
v1.0.0 to v1.0.0
30 added, 30 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: anomaly-driven-abduction
- description: 'Tactic: 归纳/溯因路径——描述异常现象，生成候选解释，按可信度排序'
+ description: 'Tactic: Inductive/abductive path — describe anomalous phenomena, generate candidate explanations, rank by plausibility'
version: 1.0.0
category: hypothesis-formation
type: tactic
campaign: hypothesis-formulation
sops:
- anomaly-characterization
- explanation-generation
- plausibility-ranking
dependencies:
sops:
- anomaly-characterization
- explanation-generation
- plausibility-ranking
---
# Anomaly Driven Abduction
- 归纳/溯因路径——精确描述无法被现有理论解释的异常现象，生成多个候选解释，按可信度排序，为溯因假设提供结构化基础。
+ Inductive/abductive path — precisely describe anomalous phenomena that existing theory cannot explain, generate multiple candidate explanations, rank by plausibility, and provide a structured basis for abductive hypotheses.
- ## 编排意图
+ ## Orchestration Intent
- 溯因推理（abduction）的起点是"意外"——观察到的现象与现有理论预测不符。本 tactic 强制 CC 先精确描述异常（不允许模糊），再系统生成解释（不允许只想到一个），最后按可信度排序（不允许主观偏好）。
+ The starting point of abduction is "surprise" — an observed phenomenon inconsistent with existing theoretical predictions. This tactic forces CC to first precisely describe the anomaly (no vagueness allowed), then systematically generate explanations (not allowed to think of only one), and finally rank by plausibility (no subjective preference allowed).
- 三步缺一不可：描述不精确则解释无法聚焦；解释不充分则排序无意义；排序无依据则假设选择变成猜测。
+ None of the three steps can be omitted: imprecise description means explanations cannot be focused; insufficient explanations make ranking meaningless; ranking without basis turns hypothesis selection into guesswork.
- ## 可用 SOPs
+ ## Available SOPs
- | SOP | 职责 | 何时调用 |
+ | SOP | Responsibility | When to call |
|-----|------|---------|
- | anomaly-characterization | 精确描述异常现象：观察到什么、与预期的偏差、发生条件、已排除的平凡解释 | 所有模式必选，首先执行 |
- | explanation-generation | 生成多个候选解释（溯因假设），每个解释必须能够完整解释异常 | 所有模式必选，在 anomaly-characterization 之后 |
- | plausibility-ranking | 按可信度标准（先验概率、解释力、简洁性、可测试性）对候选解释排序 | 所有模式必选，最后执行 |
+ | anomaly-characterization | Precisely describe the anomalous phenomenon: what was observed, deviation from expectation, conditions of occurrence, excluded trivial explanations | Required in all modes, execute first |
+ | explanation-generation | Generate multiple candidate explanations (abductive hypotheses); each explanation must fully account for the anomaly | Required in all modes, after anomaly-characterization |
+ | plausibility-ranking | Rank candidate explanations by plausibility criteria (prior probability, explanatory power, parsimony, testability) | Required in all modes, execute last |
- ## 编排模式
+ ## Orchestration Pattern
- **Simplified（S tier，单一异常）**
- - 顺序执行：anomaly-characterization → explanation-generation（≥3 个解释）→ plausibility-ranking
- - 适用：单一明确的异常现象，背景信息充分
+ **Simplified (S tier, single anomaly)**
+ - Sequential execution: anomaly-characterization → explanation-generation (≥3 explanations) → plausibility-ranking
+ - Applicable: a single clear anomalous phenomenon with sufficient background information
- **Standard（M tier，1-3 个相关异常）**
- - anomaly-characterization 对每个异常独立执行；explanation-generation 生成 ≥3 个解释（可跨异常共享解释）；plausibility-ranking 对所有解释统一排序
- - 适用：多个相关异常可能有共同解释，需要跨异常整合
+ **Standard (M tier, 1-3 related anomalies)**
+ - anomaly-characterization executes independently for each anomaly; explanation-generation generates ≥3 explanations (explanations may be shared across anomalies); plausibility-ranking ranks all explanations uniformly
+ - Applicable: multiple related anomalies may have a common explanation, requiring cross-anomaly integration
- **Deep（L tier，复杂异常集群）**
- - 全部 3 个 SOP 执行；explanation-generation 额外要求：每个解释必须说明为何现有理论无法解释该异常；plausibility-ranking 额外输出：哪些解释可以被单一实验区分
- - 适用：异常现象复杂、相互关联，需要系统性溯因分析
+ **Deep (L tier, complex anomaly cluster)**
+ - All 3 SOPs execute; explanation-generation additional requirement: each explanation must state why existing theory cannot explain the anomaly; plausibility-ranking additional output: which explanations can be distinguished by a single experiment
+ - Applicable: complex, interrelated anomalous phenomena requiring systematic abductive analysis
## Minimum Yield
- - 结构化异常描述：含观察内容、与预期的偏差、发生条件、已排除的平凡解释
- - ≥3 个候选解释，每个解释：
- - 完整解释异常的机制
- - 与现有理论的关系（扩展/修正/替代）
- - 排序列表：含每个解释的可信度评分和排序依据
+ - Structured anomaly description: including observed content, deviation from expectation, conditions of occurrence, excluded trivial explanations
+ - ≥3 candidate explanations, each explanation:
+ - The mechanism that fully explains the anomaly
+ - Relationship to existing theory (extend/revise/replace)
+ - Ranked list: including each explanation's plausibility score and ranking basis
## Yield Report
- 执行结束后向调用方 strategy 报告：
- - 异常描述完整度（是否满足 HARD-GATE 要求）
- - 生成候选解释数 / 排序完成数
- - 最高可信度解释（供 strategy 优先 formalize）
- - 可区分性：哪些解释可以通过单一实验区分（供后续实验设计参考）
+ Report to the calling strategy after execution:
+ - Anomaly description completeness (whether it meets HARD-GATE requirements)
+ - Number of candidate explanations generated / number ranked
+ - Highest-plausibility explanation (for the strategy to prioritize for formalization)
+ - Discriminability: which explanations can be distinguished by a single experiment (for reference in subsequent experiment design)
<!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->
## Available SOPs
可选,无固定顺序;最终叶子终为 sop。
| SOP | 何时用 |
| --- | --- |
| anomaly-characterization | SOP: 描述和分类无法被现有理论解释的异常现象 |
| explanation-generation | SOP: 为异常现象生成候选解释列表 |
| plausibility-ranking | SOP: 对候选解释按合理性进行多维度加权排序 |
<!-- END available-tables (generated) -->