git:20260614.5208b4c to git:20260615.1734111

23 added, 302 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: earnings-sentiment

multi_ticker_semantics: single_target

description: Earnings sentiment analysis, analyst estimates vs guidance, earnings surprise history, consensus sentiment, earnings revision trends, analyst rating changes, earnings beat miss track record, guidance accuracy, whisper numbers, pre-announcement sentiment

temporal_scope:

default_quarters: 4

max_quarters: 8

description: "Typical lookback: 4 quarters, max: 8"

allowed_tools:

- search_companies

- search_xbrl_facts

- search_documents

- read_source_outline

- read_source_deep_outline

- read_source_pages

- search_earnings_calendar

- get_company_financials

- get_company_profile

- list_xbrl_concepts

- search_keyword_in_source

retrieval_scope: unstructured_document_search

min_tool_diversity: 8

---

## Preflight

- !curl -s -o /dev/null -w "%{http_code}" --max-time 2 https://mcp.agentii.ai/mcp/health 2>/dev/null || echo "UNREACHABLE"

- **Ticker resolution **: Before any data retrieval, resolve the ticker via the three-layer fallback per retrieval.md Pre-Flight Step 0: (1) exact match via `search_companies(ticker=<input>)`, (2) pg_trgm fuzzy alias match via `gold.entity_aliases` (6,721 rows), (3) share class normalization for multi-class tickers (GOOG/GOOGL→GOOG, BRK.A/BRK.B→BRK.B). Return canonical ticker, match method, and confidence indicator.

- **Workspace style.md override check **: Check `./style.md` in the workspace root for per-workspace overrides (`default_lookback_quarters`, `reporting_currency`, `sector_focus`, `output_verbosity`, `peer_universe`). Apply overrides to output formatting and temporal scope. Precedence: workspace `style.md` > package `style.md` > skill defaults.

+ Run the canonical pre-flight sequence — MCP health probe, ticker resolution, workspace `style.md` override, memory load, and coverage check. See `contracts/preflight.md`.

- **Agent Call Tracing**: The first tool you call will return a `_run_id` in its result. On every subsequent tool call, include HTTP header `X-Agentii-Trace: agent={skill_name}; parent={caller_name}; instance={instance_label}`. The MCP server will inject run_id, depth, and user_id automatically. When spawning parallel sub-agents of the same type, assign each a unique instance label (e.g., equity-research-1, equity-research-2). See `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md` for the full contract.

+ Include the `X-Agentii-Trace` header on every tool call per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`.

## Triggers

- analyze dim earnings sentiment

- run dim earnings sentiment analysis

- produce dim earnings sentiment report

- dim earnings sentiment breakdown

- dim earnings sentiment deep dive

- build a dim earnings sentiment

- assess dim earnings sentiment

- quantify dim earnings sentiment

- compare dim earnings sentiment across peers

- review dim earnings sentiment for

- generate dim earnings sentiment on

- dim earnings sentiment for investment decision

## Defaults

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|---|---|---|

| lookback_years | 3 | Historical data window |

| include_peers | false | Whether to surface a peer comparison block |

## Methodology

### Retrieval Scope

This skill performs unstructured document search at scale (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings spanning multiple fiscal periods). The three-layer agent-use-ready retrieval protocol (Document Discovery → Page Map → Deep Read) applies to all unstructured document search at scale.

### Retrieval Strategy

- Follow the retrieval strategy decision tree in `retrieval.md`. This skill was upgraded from `structured_only` to `unstructured_document_search` scope (2026-06-03) to pull 8-K earnings press releases, MD&A guidance, and Item 1A risk factors alongside XBRL EPS data. This skill uses:

- - Branch (a) for structured financial metrics via `search_xbrl_facts` with `list_xbrl_concepts` pre-condition for unfamiliar concepts.

- - Branch (b) for multi-period unstructured queries spanning 8-K earnings press releases (management tone, sentiment language, guidance language), MD&A guidance discussion (forward-looking sentiment, confidence signals), and Item 1A risk factors (uncertainty context, cautionary language).

- - Branch (c) for single-period document queries via direct `read_source_outline` → `read_source_pages`.

- - Branch (d) for simple lookups via `get_company_profile` / `search_earnings_calendar`.

- **Layer 1 `secondary_label` allowlist **: prefer `?secondary_labels=financial_results_2_02,regulation_fd_disclosure_7_01` to capture earnings-related 8-Ks AND Reg-FD guidance disclosures before Layer 2. For uncertainty context, also query `?secondary_label=other_events_8_01` for material-event 8-Ks that may signal sentiment shifts.

+ See `contracts/retrieval.md` for the canonical decision tree; skill-specific retrieval detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

### Temporal Scope

Default: 4 fiscal quarters (max 8). Earnings sentiment: trailing 4 quarters for earnings-call tone and guidance trends

### Tool Allowlist

- See frontmatter `allowed_tools` — 8 tools declared for this dimension.

+ See frontmatter `allowed_tools`.

### Protocol

- This skill delivers analyst-grade output via 6 addressable mode(s); invoke with `--mode=<slug>` / `--modes=<slug1>,<slug2>` / `--mode=all` (see [Mode syntax](../../../../docs/commands/MODE_SYNTAX.md). The default invocation (no flag) runs the `essentials_modes` subset declared in this skill's frontmatter.

- ### Mode: analyst-sentiment-assessment-current-quarter

- **Display name**: analyst-sentiment-assessment-current-quarter

-

- **Focus**: Analyze sell-side preview reports to assess analyst sentiment and conviction level.

- (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- - `get_company_profile`

- - `list_sources`

- - `read_source_outline`

- - `read_source_pages`

- - `search_keyword_in_source`

- - consistency_checks

- - evidence_requirements

- - sentiment_classification

- - **structure**: ## Current-Quarter Analyst Sentiment Assessment

- **Assessment Date**: {Current date}

- **Upcoming Earnings Date**: {Next earnings date from fetch_stock_info}

- **Analysis Period**: {30-day window before earnings}

- **Data Sources Analyzed**:

- - Morgan Stanley: {Report title and date if available, or "N/A"}

- - Jefferies: {Report title and date if available, or "N/A"}

- ### Current-Quarter Estimates & Tone Summary

- | **Key Financials** | **Expected Tone** | **Commentary / Notes** |

- |:-------------------|:-----------------:|:-----------------------|

- | Revenues | Highly Convicted / Positive / Negative / N/A | {Brief explanation with analyst quotes} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | EPS | Highly Convicted / Positive / Negative / N/A | {Brief explanation with analyst quotes} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | EBITDA | Highly Convicted / Positive / Negative / N/A | {Brief explanation with analyst quotes} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | **Adj. EBITDA** | Highly Convicted / Positive / Negative / N/A | {Brief explanation with analyst quotes} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | Net Income | Highly Convicted / Positive / Negative / N/A | {Brief explanation with analyst quotes} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- **Overall Sentiment Summary**:

- {2-3 sentence synthesis of overall analyst sentiment for upcoming quarter}

- **Key Sentiment Drivers**:

- - {List 2-3 main factors driving analyst conviction or concern}

- ### Mode: fy0-analyst-estimates-extraction

- **Display name**: fy0-analyst-estimates-extraction

-

- **Focus**: Extract and calculate mean (average) analyst estimates for the current fiscal year (FY0).

- (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- - `get_company_profile`

- - `list_sources`

- **Fiscal Year**: FY{year}

- **Earnings Release Date**: {date}

- **Data Sources**:

- - Morgan Stanley: {title, date}

- - Jefferies: {title, date}

- | **Key Financials** | **Mean Estimate** | **Notes / Source Commentary** |

- |:-------------------|:-----------------:|:-----------------------------|

- | Revenues | <XXXM-amount> | Avg of MS: <XXXM-amount>, Jefferies: <XXXM-amount> _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | EPS (Non-GAAP) | <X.XX-amount> | Avg of MS: <X.XX-amount>, Jefferies: <X.XX-amount> _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_ |

- | EBITDA | <XXXM-amount> | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- | **Adj. EBITDA** | <XXXM-amount> | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- | Net Income | <XXXM-amount> | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- | **Gross Margin** | XX.XX% | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- | **Operating Margin** | XX.XX% | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- | Net Margin | XX.XX% | {or N/A if not disclosed} |

- **Calculation Notes**:

- - Mean calculated as (MS estimate + Jefferies estimate) / 2

- - If only one source available, use that single estimate

- - All estimates rounded to appropriate precision

- ### Mode: current-quarter-fiscal-year-analyst-estimates

- **Display name**: current-quarter-fiscal-year-analyst-estimates

-

- **Focus**: Extract and calculate mean analyst estimates from Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and SEC filings.

- (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- - `get_company_profile`

- **Current Quarter**: Q{X} {Year}

- **Current Fiscal Year**: FY{Year}

- **Earnings Release Date**: {date}

- **Data Sources**:

- - Morgan Stanley: {report title, date}

- - Jefferies: {report title, date}

- - SEC 8-K: {filing date if applicable, or N/A}

- | **Key Financials** | **Current Quarter Estimate** | **Current Fiscal Year Estimate (FY0)** |

- |:-------------------|:---------------------------:|:-------------------------------------:|

- | Revenues | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | EPS (Non-GAAP) | <X.XX-amount> | <X.XX-amount> |

- | EBITDA | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | **Adj. EBITDA** | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | Net Income | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- **Sources and Calculations**:

- - Revenues (Quarter): Mean of MS: <XXXM-amount>, Jefferies: <XXXM-amount> _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_, _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- - Revenues (FY0): Mean of MS: <XXXM-amount>, Jefferies: <XXXM-amount> _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_, _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- {Repeat for each metric}

- **Notes**:

- - All estimates represent analyst consensus as of {date}

- - Estimates averaged across available sources

- - N/A indicates metric not disclosed by any source

- ### Mode: management-guidance-extraction

- **Display name**: management-guidance-extraction

-

- **Focus**: Extract management's official guidance for current quarter and fiscal year.

- (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- - `get_company_profile`

- - `list_sources`

- **Source Earnings Date**: {last earnings date}

- **Current Quarter**: Q{X} {Year}

- **Current Fiscal Year**: FY{Year}

- **Data Sources**:

- - SEC 8-K: {filing date}

- - Earnings Presentation: {title, date if applicable}

- | **Key Financials** | **Current Quarter Guidance** | **Current Fiscal Year Guidance (FY0)** |

- |:-------------------|:---------------------------:|:-------------------------------------:|

- | Revenues | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | EPS (Non-GAAP) | <X.XX-amount> | <X.XX-amount> |

- | EBITDA | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | **Adj. EBITDA** | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- | Net Income | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> |

- **Guidance Details**:

- - Revenues (Quarter): {<XXX-amount>-XXXM range → midpoint <XXXM-amount>} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- - Revenues (FY0): {<XXX-amount>-XXXM range → midpoint <XXXM-amount>} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- {Repeat for each metric}

- **Guidance Notes**:

- - All values represent midpoint of ranges where applicable

- - Guidance provided by management on {earnings date}

- - N/A indicates no guidance provided for that metric

- ### Mode: current-quarter-estimates-vs-guidance

- **Display name**: current-quarter-estimates-vs-guidance

-

- ### Objective

- Compile side-by-side comparison of analyst estimates and management guidance

- for the CURRENT FISCAL QUARTER ahead of upcoming earnings release.

- Calculate and present variance (delta) between analyst expectations and official guidance.

- **Current Quarter**: Q{X} FY{Year}

- **Upcoming Earnings Date**: {date}

- **Data Sources**:

- - Analyst Estimates: {MS and Jefferies previews with dates}

- - Management Guidance: {8-K from last earnings, date}

- |:-------------------|:---------------------:|:-----------------------:|:------------:|:---------:|

- | EPS (Non-GAAP) | <X.XX-amount> | <X.XX-amount> | +$0.XX | +X.X% |

- | **Adj. EBITDA** | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> | $0M | 0.0% |

- **Variance Analysis**:

- - {Metric with largest positive variance}: Analysts {X}% above guidance

- - Potential drivers: {Brief explanation} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- - {Metric with negative variance if any}: Analysts {X}% below guidance

- - Potential concerns: {Brief explanation} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- **Overall Assessment**:

- {2-3 sentences summarizing whether analysts are generally above, in-line, or below guidance,

- and potential implications for upcoming earnings}

- **Key Observations**:

- - {Notable variance patterns}

- - {Consistency or inconsistency across metrics}

- - {Context for variances from preview reports}

- - **variance_interpretation**:

- - in_line

- - material_variance

- - negative_variance

- - positive_variance

- ### Mode: full-year-estimates-vs-guidance

- **Display name**: full-year-estimates-vs-guidance

-

- ### Objective

- Compile side-by-side comparison of analyst estimates and management guidance

- for the CURRENT FISCAL YEAR (FY0).

- Calculate variance to assess if analysts are above, in-line, or below guidance.

- **Fiscal Year**: FY{Year} (ending {month/day/year})

- **Data as of**: {current date}

- **Data Sources**:

- - Analyst Estimates (FY0): {MS and Jefferies previews, dates}

- - Management Guidance (FY0): {8-K from last earnings, date}

- |:-------------------|:---------------------:|:-----------------------:|:------------:|:---------:|

- | EPS (Non-GAAP) | <X.XX-amount> | <X.XX-amount> | +$0.XX | +X.X% |

- | Net Income | <XXXM-amount> | <XXXM-amount> | $0M | 0.0% |

- **Variance Analysis**:

- ### Metrics Above Guidance

- {For each metric with +variance > 5%}:

- - **{Metric}**: Analysts {X}% above guidance

- - Analyst rationale: {Key drivers from preview reports} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- - Implied upside: <XXM> or <X.XX> per share

- ### Metrics Below Guidance

- {For each metric with -variance > 5%}:

- - **{Metric}**: Analysts {X}% below guidance

- - Analyst concerns: {Key reasons from preview reports} _(cite source filing in standard agentii citation format at runtime)_

- - Potential downside: <XXM> or <X.XX> per share

- ### Metrics In-Line (±2%)

- {List metrics with minimal variance}

- **Overall Assessment**:

- {Summary paragraph assessing whether analysts are generally constructive,

- in-line, or cautious relative to management guidance. Discuss implications

- for potential guidance revisions in upcoming earnings.}

- **Strategic Implications**:

- - **For Investors**: {What variance pattern suggests about potential outcomes}

- - **Guidance Outlook**: {Likelihood of guidance raise/lower/maintain based on variance}

- - **Key Drivers of Variance**: {Top 2-3 factors explaining estimate vs. guidance delta}

+ Step-by-step execution detail is in `references/methodology.md`.

- - **variance_significance**:

- - in_line

- - material

- - moderate

+ ### Analyst Modes

-

+ This skill exposes addressable analysis modes (`--mode=<slug>` / `--modes=<s1>,<s2>` / `--mode=all`; see [Mode syntax](../../../../docs/commands/MODE_SYNTAX.md)). The full mode definitions and their output templates live in `references/modes.md`. The default invocation runs the essentials subset.

## Tool Fallbacks

- |------|-------------|-----------------|---------------------|

- | `read_source_pages` | SQL error / PROXY_ERROR | Use `search_keyword_in_source(document_id, keyword)` if document_id known; otherwise `search_documents` with same query | "source file unavailable; used keyword search instead" |

- | `list_xbrl_concepts` | Timeout / 503 | Use direct `search_xbrl_facts` with standard US-GAAP concepts (Revenues, NetIncomeLoss, EarningsPerShareDiluted, OperatingIncomeLoss, Assets) | "concept discovery skipped due to timeout; using standard US-GAAP concepts" |

- Tool errors are retried ONCE with the fallback action before escalating to the retrieval gaps failure policy. If both Layer 2 and Layer 3 tools are unavailable, enter document access degradation mode (structured data + metadata only, flag output as degraded).

+ Per-tool failure modes and fallback actions are tabulated in `references/tool-fallbacks.md`.

## Output File

- Write the final deliverable to `{{ticker}}/{{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}}_earnings-sentiment_analyst-sentiment.md` .

+ Write the final deliverable to `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_earnings-sentiment_analyst-sentiment.md` .

## Output Structure

- The final deliverable MUST be written as a markdown file to the workspace using the convention :

+ The deliverable is a structured markdown report written to the path in `## Output File`. Full section-by-section template (headings, tables, and field definitions) lives in `references/output-structure.md`. Required elements:

- ```

- {ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_earnings-sentiment_{affix}.md

- ```

+ 1. **Executive Summary** — headline conclusions (≤200 words).

+ 2. **Core analysis sections** — per this skill's methodology and analyst modes.

+ 3. **Data classification** — tag findings `[FACT]` / `[DEDUCTED]` / `[VIEW]` per `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ 4. **Coverage Gaps & Citations** — inline `/v/` citations are PRIMARY (immediately after each fact); the bottom **Citations** section is a non-duplicative roll-up index.

+ 5. **Output frontmatter** — emit the FR-090 structured block per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

- Where `affix` is a short descriptive slug (e.g., `guidance-vs-estimates`, `analyst-tone`, `call-sentiment`, `surprise-bridge`). Examples:

+ **Citations & memory**: follow `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link; a bottom **Citations** section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable `/v/` URLs; and append the run to `agentii.md` per `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

- - `LLY/2026-05-25_1430_earnings-sentiment_guidance-vs-estimates.md`

- - `NVDA/2026-05-25_1545_earnings-sentiment_analyst-tone.md`

+ ## Memory & Snapshot

- The path is RELATIVE to the agent's invocation cwd. Skills MUST NOT write under absolute paths.

+ - **Memory load** (pre-flight): load prior workspace context for the ticker before retrieval — see `contracts/memory-load.md`.

+ - **Structured output frontmatter**: emit the FR-090 block (`key_metrics`, `conclusions`, `facts_count`, `deducted_count`, `views_count`, `citation_count`) per `contracts/output-frontmatter-schema.md`.

+ - **Snapshot synthesis**: after writing the deliverable, update the two-tier snapshot and classify findings as `[FACT]`/`[DEDUCTED]`/`[VIEW]` — see `contracts/snapshot-synthesis.md`.

+ - **Session archival**: record the run under `sessions/{YYYY-MM-DD}/` and update `sessions/INDEX.md` per `contracts/session-format.md`.

- **Citation density**: ≥1 citation per 200 words. Bare `page_no` integers are forbidden — always use `{ticker} {citation_id} page<N>`. **Citation link format **: use clickable links: `[📄 {ticker} {form_type} p.{N}](https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N})`. Example: `[📄 LLY 8-K p.5](https://agentii.ai/v/LLY/sec179/5)`.

+ ## Final Summary (TUI)

- **agentii.md append **: After writing the output file, append a YAML block to `agentii.md` at the workspace root with `ticker`, `date`, `skill`, `output_file`, and `key_conclusions`. Create the file with a `# Project Memory Index` heading if it doesn't exist. See `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

+ End the closing chat reply with a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts), each a clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link, so the user can cmd+click straight to the exact SEC page. See `contracts/citation-and-memory.md`.

## Error Handling

|---|---|---|---|

| Missing data | Data API returns empty result set | Widen date range and retry once | "No data available for {ticker} in requested window." |

| Sector mismatch | Peer sector != target sector | Filter out mismatched peers | "Removed {n} peer(s) due to sector mismatch." |