git:20260619.9732239 to git:20260619.944b979

33 added, 180 removed. Audit B to B.

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description: Deep fundamental analysis of US stocks using financial statements

---

# Fundamental Analysis

- ## ⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis

- Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:

+ > **This skill has been merged into `stock-eval`.** Use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval` for comprehensive fundamental + quality + valuation analysis.

- 1. **Fetch current price** — use web search or ask the user for the live price, 52-week range, and market cap. Never assume a price from training data.

- 2. **Confirm key figures** — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.

- 3. **State your data source** — note where the numbers came from (e.g., "Google Finance, June 19 2026") at the top of the output.

- 4. **Flag stale data explicitly** — if live data is unavailable, display this warning before proceeding:

+ ## Quick Reference — Key Ratios

- > ⚠️ **Live data unavailable.** The following analysis uses training-data estimates which may be significantly out of date. Verify all prices and metrics before making any decisions.

+ | Ratio | Formula | What It Measures |

+ |-------|---------|-----------------|

+ | **P/E** (Price-to-Earnings) | Market Price / EPS | How much investors pay per dollar of earnings; compare to peers and history |

+ | **P/B** (Price-to-Book) | Market Price / Book Value per Share | Premium over net asset value; useful for financials and asset-heavy businesses |

+ | **P/S** (Price-to-Sales) | Market Cap / Revenue | Valuation relative to revenue; useful when earnings are negative or depressed |

+ | **EV/EBITDA** | Enterprise Value / EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral earnings multiple; standard M&A and cross-sector benchmark |

+ | **ROE** (Return on Equity) | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity | Profitability relative to equity book value; decompose with DuPont for quality assessment |

+ | **ROIC** (Return on Invested Capital) | NOPAT / Invested Capital | True economic return on all capital deployed; compare to WACC to assess value creation |

+ | **Current Ratio** | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | Short-term liquidity; >1.5x generally healthy; <1.0x signals potential liquidity stress |

+ | **D/E** (Debt-to-Equity) | Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity | Financial leverage; higher ratio = more risk but also more return amplification |

- Never silently substitute training-data estimates for current prices. When in doubt, ask the user to paste the latest quote.

+ For the full analysis framework — income statement line-item breakdown, working capital cycle, DuPont decomposition, cash conversion cycle, Porter's Five Forces, Piotroski F-Score, DCF, ROIC/WACC, and risk matrix — use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval`.

---

- Conduct deep-dive fundamental analysis of US stocks using financial statements and business metrics.

- ## Financial Statement Analysis

- 1. **Income Statement Analysis**

- - Revenue breakdown and growth drivers

- - Cost structure and margin trends

- - Operating leverage analysis

- - Earnings quality assessment

- - Non-recurring items identification

- 2. **Balance Sheet Analysis**

- - Asset quality and composition

- - Liability structure and debt maturity

- - Working capital management

- - Off-balance sheet items

- - Shareholder equity trends

- 3. **Cash Flow Statement Analysis**

- - Operating cash flow generation

- - Capital expenditure requirements

- - Free cash flow calculation

- - Cash conversion cycle

- - Financing and investing activities

- ## Business Quality Metrics

- 1. **Profitability Analysis**

- - Gross margin trends

- - Operating margin consistency

- - Net profit margins

- - ROE, ROA, ROIC trends

- 2. **Growth Analysis**

- - Historical growth rates (3, 5, 10 years)

- - Growth quality (organic vs. acquisitions)

- - Market share trends

- - Geographic and product segment analysis

- 3. **Efficiency Metrics**

- - Asset turnover ratios

- - Inventory management

- - Receivables collection

- - Fixed asset productivity

- 4. **Capital Allocation**

- - Dividend policy and sustainability

- - Share buyback programs

- - M&A strategy and execution

- - R&D and capex investments

- ## Competitive Analysis

- - Porter's Five Forces assessment

- - Competitive moat identification

- - Industry structure and dynamics

- - Market share trends

- - Pricing power evaluation

- ## Visualization Support

- When `--visual` flag is used, include chart data tables for key metrics:

- ### 1. Revenue & Earnings Growth Chart

- **Chart Type**: Line chart with dual Y-axis

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Year Revenue ($M) Revenue Growth % Net Income ($M) EPS ($)

- 2020 [value] [%] [value] [value]

- 2021 [value] [%] [value] [value]

- 2022 [value] [%] [value] [value]

- 2023 [value] [%] [value] [value]

- 2024 [value] [%] [value] [value]

- ```

- ### 2. Profit Margin Trends

- **Chart Type**: Line chart with percentage Y-axis

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Year Gross Margin % Operating Margin % Net Margin % Industry Avg %

- 2020 [%] [%] [%] [%]

- 2021 [%] [%] [%] [%]

- 2022 [%] [%] [%] [%]

- 2023 [%] [%] [%] [%]

- 2024 [%] [%] [%] [%]

- ```

- ### 3. Balance Sheet Composition

- **Chart Type**: Stacked bar chart

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Year Current Assets ($M) Fixed Assets ($M) Intangibles ($M) Total Assets ($M)

- 2020 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2021 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2022 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2023 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2024 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- Year Current Liab ($M) Long-term Debt ($M) Equity ($M) Total L+E ($M)

- 2020 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2021 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2022 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2023 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- 2024 [value] [value] [value] [value]

- ```

- ### 4. Cash Flow Waterfall

- **Chart Type**: Waterfall chart

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Component Amount ($M) Notes

- Operating Cash Flow [value] Core business generation

- Capital Expenditures [value] Investments in assets

- Free Cash Flow [value] Available for distribution

- Dividends [value] Shareholder distribution

- Share Buybacks [value] Share repurchases

- M&A Activity [value] Acquisitions

- Debt Repayment [value] Debt reduction

- Net Cash Change [value] Bottom line impact

- ```

- ### 5. Valuation Multiples Comparison

- **Chart Type**: Grouped bar chart

- **Data Table**:

- ```

- Metric Company Industry Avg 5-Year Avg Assessment

- P/E Ratio [value] [value] [value] [Over/Under/Fair]

- P/B Ratio [value] [value] [value] [Over/Under/Fair]

- P/S Ratio [value] [value] [value] [Over/Under/Fair]

- EV/EBITDA [value] [value] [value] [Over/Under/Fair]

- PEG Ratio [value] [value] [value] [Over/Under/Fair]

- ```

+ ## Standard Signal Output

- ### ASCII Chart Example (Terminal Display)

- When visual charts aren't available, provide ASCII charts for key metrics:

+ All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

```

- Revenue Growth (5-Year Trend)

- $250B ┤ ╭──

- $200B ┤ ╭──────╯

- $150B ┤ ╭──────╯

- $100B ┤ ╭──────╯

- $50B ┤ ╭──────╯

- └──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──

- 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

- ```

- ### Integration with Report Generator

- When `--visual` flag is used, output is optimized for `/report-generator` skill:

- - Data tables formatted for Chart.js ingestion

- - Chart type recommendations included

- - Color coding suggestions (green for positive, red for negative)

- - Axis labels and units clearly specified

- ## Output

+ ## Thesis Invalidation

- Provide detailed fundamental report with:

- - Financial strength score

- - Business quality rating

- - Competitive position assessment

- - Key investment risks

- - Fair value estimate with methodology

- - Investment recommendation with time horizon

+ After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:

- ### Enhanced Output (with --visual flag)

- - All standard output sections above

- - Chart data tables for 5 key visualization areas

- - ASCII charts for terminal display

- - Chart specifications for HTML report generation

- - Color-coded metrics (green/red for positive/negative trends)

+ **If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**

+ - Price closes below the MA200 / key support level identified in this analysis on above-average volume

+ - revenue growth decelerates below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters AND gross margin contracts >200bps

+ - Macro regime shift: Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly, recession probability >60%

- ## Standard Signal Output

+ **If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**

+ - Price closes above key resistance / MA200 level with volume confirmation

+ - revenue reaccelerates >15% AND margin expansion resumes

+ - Fundamental improvement: surprise earnings beat >20% with guidance raise

- All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

+ **Re-run this analysis when:**

+ - [ ] Next earnings release

+ - [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level

+ - [ ] 60 days have elapsed

+ - [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)

- ```

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗

║ INVESTMENT SIGNAL ║

╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣

║ Signal: BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH ║

║ Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW ║

║ Horizon: SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM ║

║ Score: X.X / 10 ║

╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣

║ Action: BUY / HOLD / SELL ║

║ Conviction: STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK ║

╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝

```

- **Score Guide**: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish

- **Confidence**: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)

- **Horizon**: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)

+ Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish

+ Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)

+ Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)