git:20261105.c1fc7f0 to git:20261105.2f57518

51 added, 0 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: event-calendar

description: Audit and refresh the desks' scheduled-event calendar (services/intel/data/scheduled_events.json) - elections, jobs/CPI/PCE/GDP, FOMC, OPEC+, IEA/OPEC reports, funding deadlines, Congress, holidays, contract expiries, China data. Run when the desk brief warns "event calendar ends", monthly, or before any election or big political date.

---

# event-calendar

Operator, 2026-11-05, after the 11-03 midterms dropped Brent 9% with no

election on the calendar: "I NEED YOU TO AUDIT THE EVENT CALENDAR AND TAKE

THEM INTO ACCOUNT WHEN YOU MAKE DECISIONS... ELECTIONS, BILLS, ALL THAT".

What uses the calendar:

- **Thesis:** every row becomes an intel catalyst

(`services/intel/sources/catalysts.py::scheduled_catalysts`).

- **Desk brief:** the "Events next 72h" line.

- **Blackout:** impact-3 rows block new entries

(`services/strategies/event_blackout.py::event_blackout`). They are enforced

in `place_bracket` and `trigger_watch.py`.

- **Generated, not in the file:** FOMC decisions, CPI, OPEC+ meetings, EIA,

API, Baker Hughes and CFTC come from `services/intel/calendar_us.py`. Update

those tables there (FOMC_DECISION_DATES_*, CPI_RELEASE_DATES,

OPEC_PLUS_MEETINGS), not in the JSON.

## Steps

1. **Read the file** and note `valid_through`.

2. **Research forward** to at least 90 days past today. Use one

general-purpose agent with web search, and official sources first:

- US data: bls.gov, bea.gov.

- Central bank: federalreserve.gov.

- Oil: opec.org, iea.org, eia.gov, ice.com, cmegroup.com.

- Politics: congress.gov, state election sites. Also look for scheduled

Iran/Hormuz talks, sanctions deadlines and IAEA board dates.

Every row needs: date, at_utc (or null for all day or unknown), event,

kind, coins (oil and/or silver), impact (1 to 3), verified, source.

Unverified dates stay `verified: false`. Never guess a time.

3. **Impact 3 is for events that can move price 2% or more within hours.**

Those block entries. Keep it to:

- FOMC

- CPI

- OPEC+ ministerials

- national elections or referendums

- a dated war, sanctions or peace deadline

Jobs, PCE, IEA and OPEC monthly reports, funding deadlines and holidays

are 2. Elections get their own window: `before_h` from 24h before the

polls close, `after_h` until results are in.

4. **Update the file.** Bump `refreshed` and `valid_through`. Keep past rows:

they are the record the what-if eval replays.

5. **Check:**

- `.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q services/intel/tests/test_scheduled_events.py`

- `python3 -m services.strategies.evals.event_direction_test` (what a

short or long through each past event did; information only)

6. **Commit and push.** Say "reconnect pathiel MCP (/mcp) in the desk loops

window" so place_bracket and the brief reload the file.

+ ## Scan (every 12 hours)

+ `/event-calendar scan`. The desk-loops cron runs it at 17 past, every 12

+ hours (operator, 2026-11-05: "a scan every 12 hours to get new events and

+ wire them into our trading decision"). It adds to the overlay at

+ `$PATHIEL_STATE_DIR/intel/scanned_events.json`; it never edits

+ `services/intel/data/scheduled_events.json`. A curated row wins on a

+ (date, kind, title) conflict; the brief shows scanned rows with a `(scan)`

+ tag. Keep it cheap: one script, one agent, no more.

+ 1. **Deterministic half.** `python3 scripts/event_scan.py` (no LLM):

+ congress.gov committee meetings and hearings for the next 21 days

+ (Foreign Relations, Energy and Natural Resources, Foreign Affairs, Energy

+ and Commerce, Armed Services, Appropriations always; any committee whose

+ title matches Iran, Hormuz, oil, sanctions, OPEC, war powers, NDAA...),

+ new actions on the watched bills (H.R. 1422 and S. 556, the Iran-oil

+ sanctions bills, plus bills on a kept markup's agenda), and Federal

+ Register documents with an effective date or comment deadline in the

+ window. It prints and logs one `EVENT-SCAN ...` line. Without

+ `CONGRESS_API_KEY` it says `skipped=congress_...` and still runs the

+ Federal Register. `--dry-run` prints without writing.

+ 2. **Research half.** ONE general-purpose research agent with web search,

+ for the next 21 days from today: dated Iran/Hormuz talks and deadlines,

+ US-Russia-Ukraine talks, OPEC+ meetings not in `calendar_us.py`,

+ Congress floor schedules (cloture votes, NDAA, appropriations, sanctions

+ bills), sanctions deadlines (snapback, waivers, general licenses expiring),

+ summits (G7, G20, NATO, Trump travel), Fed speakers (Powell, Waller,

+ Williams), China data (NBS, trade, PBoC). It returns rows only: date,

+ at_utc (or null), event, kind, coins, impact, verified, source, note.

+ Official page first; otherwise `verified: false`. No row without a source.

+ 3. **Write each row** with `scripts/event_add.py` (the one writer; it

+ validates, dedups on date + kind + title, and refuses impact 3):

+ python3 scripts/event_add.py --json '{"date": "2026-11-18", "at_utc": null, "event": "...", "kind": "iran_talks", "coins": ["oil", "silver"], "impact": 2, "verified": false, "source": "https://..."}'

+ Impact 3 only for FOMC, CPI, an OPEC+ ministerial, a national election,

+ or a dated war/sanctions/peace deadline; pass `--allow-impact-3` for

+ exactly those and say so in the note. Everything else is 1 or 2. Never

+ `--allow-impact-3` for a hearing, a report, a speech or a summit.

+ Skip anything `calendar_us.py` generates (FOMC decisions, CPI, OPEC+

+ meetings, EIA, API, Baker Hughes, CFTC). `python3 scripts/event_add.py

+ --list` shows the overlay; `--prune-before <DATE>` drops old rows.

+ 4. **End with one line** appended to `/tmp/oil-loop/progress.log`:

+ `EVENT-SCAN-RESEARCH <utc> added=N updated=M refused=R` (what the agent

+ found, what event_add took). Say nothing else in the loops window

+ unless a row is impact 3 or a new blackout starts within 24h: then

+ one sentence to the operator.

+ 5. **Promote, do not edit.** A scanned row the operator wants permanent

+ moves into the curated file in a normal refresh (steps above), with a

+ commit; the scan then reports it as `curated` and stops carrying it.

## Rules

- Unscheduled headlines (a deal, a strike) are the thesis's job (news,

Polymarket), not this file's.

- A blackout never touches an open position, its stop, target or a close.

- Do not change BEFORE_H/AFTER_H or BLACKOUT_IMPACT without the operator's go.