hypothesis-tracking · diff
v2.0.0 to git:20260206.7ccb468
40 added, 172 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: hypothesis-tracking
- version: "2.0.0"
- description: "Confidence level management and hypothesis lifecycle"
+ description: "Track and manage research hypotheses with confidence levels. Use when the user asks about prior research, wants to validate claims, or queries what is known about a company."
metadata:
openclaw:
requires:
bins:
- primr-mcp
env:
- GEMINI_API_KEY
-
- mcp_server: primr
- tools:
- - get_hypotheses
- - save_hypothesis
- resources:
- - primr://memory/{company}
---
- # Hypothesis Tracking Skill (v2.0)
-
- You are an expert at managing research hypotheses, tracking confidence levels, and maintaining epistemic rigor.
-
- ## Confidence Level Framework
-
- Primr uses a four-level confidence system:
-
- | Level | Meaning | Evidence Required |
- |-------|---------|-------------------|
- | `UNTESTED` | Claim extracted, not yet verified | None (initial state) |
- | `VALIDATED` | Supporting evidence found | At least one corroborating source |
- | `INVALIDATED` | Contradicting evidence found | At least one contradicting source |
- | `CONFIRMED` | High confidence, multiple sources | Multiple independent sources |
-
- ## Hypothesis Lifecycle
-
- ```
- ┌─────────────┐
- │ UNTESTED │
- └──────┬──────┘
- │
- ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
- │ │ │
- ▼ ▼ ▼
- ┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐
- │ VALIDATED │ │ INVALIDATED │ │ (remains) │
- └──────┬──────┘ └─────────────┘ └─────────────┘
- │
- ▼
- ┌─────────────┐
- │ CONFIRMED │
- └─────────────┘
- ```
-
- ## Hypothesis Structure
+ # Hypothesis Tracking
- ```yaml
- hypothesis:
- id: "h_001" # Unique identifier
- claim: "Company uses AWS" # The testable claim
- confidence: validated # Current confidence level
- evidence: # Supporting/contradicting evidence
- - "Job posting mentions AWS certifications"
- - "CTO blog post discusses AWS migration"
- topic: "technology" # Category for filtering
- created_at: "2026-02-01T10:00:00"
- updated_at: "2026-02-03T14:30:00"
- expires_at: "2026-05-01T10:00:00" # Optional expiration
- ```
+ Primr uses a four-level confidence system: UNTESTED, VALIDATED, INVALIDATED, CONFIRMED. See `references/confidence-levels.md` for the full framework and lifecycle.
## Operational Capabilities
- ### 1. Retrieve Hypotheses
-
- **Tool**: `get_hypotheses`
+ ### Retrieve Hypotheses
```
- # Get all hypotheses for a company
get_hypotheses(company="Acme Corp")
-
- # Filter by confidence level
get_hypotheses(company="Acme Corp", confidence="validated")
-
- # Filter by topic
get_hypotheses(company="Acme Corp", topic="technology")
-
- # Include expired hypotheses
get_hypotheses(company="Acme Corp", include_expired=True)
```
- ### 2. Update Hypothesis Confidence
-
- **Tool**: `save_hypothesis`
+ ### Update Hypothesis Confidence
```
- # Validate a hypothesis
- save_hypothesis(
- company="Acme Corp",
- hypothesis_id="h_001",
- confidence="validated",
- evidence="Found AWS case study on company blog"
- )
+ save_hypothesis(company="Acme Corp", hypothesis_id="h_001",
+ confidence="validated", evidence="Found AWS case study on company blog")
- # Invalidate a hypothesis
- save_hypothesis(
- company="Acme Corp",
- hypothesis_id="h_002",
- confidence="invalidated",
- evidence="CEO interview states they use Azure exclusively"
- )
+ save_hypothesis(company="Acme Corp", hypothesis_id="h_002",
+ confidence="invalidated", evidence="CEO states they use Azure exclusively")
- # Confirm with high confidence
- save_hypothesis(
- company="Acme Corp",
- hypothesis_id="h_001",
- confidence="confirmed",
- evidence="Multiple sources confirm: job posts, blog, press release"
- )
+ save_hypothesis(company="Acme Corp", hypothesis_id="h_001",
+ confidence="confirmed", evidence="Multiple sources: job posts, blog, press release")
```
- ### 3. Create New Hypothesis
-
- **Tool**: `save_hypothesis`
+ ### Create New Hypothesis
```
- save_hypothesis(
- company="Acme Corp",
- hypothesis_id="h_new_001", # New ID
+ save_hypothesis(company="Acme Corp", hypothesis_id="h_new_001",
claim="Company is expanding into healthcare",
- confidence="untested",
- topic="strategy"
- )
+ confidence="untested", topic="strategy")
```
- ## Evidence Quality Guidelines
-
- ### Strong Evidence
- - Direct quotes from company executives
- - Official press releases
- - SEC filings (for public companies)
- - Published case studies
- - Job postings with specific requirements
-
- ### Moderate Evidence
- - Industry analyst reports
- - News articles with named sources
- - Partner announcements
- - Conference presentations
-
- ### Weak Evidence
- - Anonymous sources
- - Speculation in articles
- - Social media posts
- - Outdated information (>1 year)
-
- ## Hypothesis Generation Patterns
-
- ### From Scrape Results
- ```
- Analyst Subagent extracts claims:
- - Technology stack mentions → technology hypotheses
- - Leadership quotes → strategy hypotheses
- - Financial mentions → financial hypotheses
- - Market references → market hypotheses
- ```
+ ## Expiration Rules
- ### From Deep Research
- ```
- External sources provide:
- - Competitive positioning claims
- - Market share estimates
- - Growth trajectory claims
- - Industry trend alignment
- ```
+ - Financial claims: 90 days
+ - Technology claims: 180 days
+ - Strategy claims: 365 days
+ - Leadership claims: no expiration
- ## Expiration Management
+ When expired hypotheses exist, query with `include_expired=True`, then re-validate, invalidate, or extend.
- ### When to Set Expiration
- - Financial claims: 90 days (quarterly updates)
- - Technology claims: 180 days (tech changes)
- - Strategy claims: 365 days (annual planning)
- - Leadership claims: No expiration (until change)
+ ## Error Handling
- ### Handling Expired Hypotheses
- ```
- 1. Query with include_expired=True
- 2. Review expired hypotheses
- 3. Either:
- - Re-validate with fresh evidence
- - Mark as invalidated if no longer true
- - Extend expiration if still relevant
- ```
+ | Error | Resolution |
+ |-------|------------|
+ | Hypothesis not found | Verify company name and hypothesis_id |
+ | Duplicate ID | Use a unique hypothesis_id per company |
+ | Missing evidence | Always provide evidence string when changing confidence |
+ | Expired hypothesis | Re-query with `include_expired=True` to access |
## Example Workflow
```
User: "What do we know about Acme Corp's technology?"
- Agent:
1. get_hypotheses("Acme Corp", topic="technology")
-
+
Results:
- [CONFIRMED] Uses microservices architecture
Evidence: CTO interview, job posts, tech blog
- [VALIDATED] AWS as primary cloud
Evidence: Job posting mentions AWS
- [UNTESTED] Considering Kubernetes migration
Evidence: None yet
2. Present to user:
"Here's what we know about Acme Corp's technology:
-
- ✓ CONFIRMED: Uses microservices architecture
- - Multiple sources confirm this
-
- ✓ VALIDATED: AWS as primary cloud
- - One supporting source (job posting)
-
- ? UNTESTED: Considering Kubernetes migration
- - No evidence yet, extracted from blog speculation
-
+
+ CONFIRMED: Uses microservices architecture
+ Multiple sources confirm this
+
+ VALIDATED: AWS as primary cloud
+ One supporting source (job posting)
+
+ UNTESTED: Considering Kubernetes migration
+ No evidence yet, extracted from blog speculation
+
Would you like me to research any of these further?"
3. If user provides new evidence:
- save_hypothesis(
- company="Acme Corp",
- hypothesis_id="h_003",
+ save_hypothesis(company="Acme Corp", hypothesis_id="h_003",
confidence="validated",
- evidence="User confirmed: spoke with Acme engineer at conference"
- )
+ evidence="User confirmed: spoke with Acme engineer at conference")
```
## Constraints
- **Unique IDs**: Each hypothesis must have a unique ID per company
- **Evidence Trail**: Always record evidence when changing confidence
- **Topic Consistency**: Use consistent topic names for filtering
- **Expiration Awareness**: Check expiration before presenting claims