git:20260619.623f0b4 to git:20261028.0322eda

58 added, 93 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: nasa-risk

- description: "Knowledge base from NASA Risk Management Handbook (NASA/SP-2011-3422). Use for risk-informed decision making, continuous risk management, performance commitments, risk scenario diagrams, risk disposition types, risk burn-down schedules, objectives hierarchies, deliberation and alternative selection, risk driver identification, and RM planning for space and safety-critical programmes. Does not cover domain-specific PRA methods (fault trees, event trees) in procedural depth — see NASA PRA Procedures Guide for those."

+ description: "Knowledge pack synthesized from NASA Risk Management Handbook, Version 2.0 (November 2024; NASA/SP-20240014019 Part 1, NASA/SP-20240014326 Part 2): RIDM, CRM, and risk leadership. SCOPE LIMITS: single-source (the two November 2024 volumes); domain PRA methods (fault trees, event trees, Bayesian inference) are not this pack, see nasa-pra (NASA/SP-2011-3421); NPR 8000.4, NPD 1000.0, NPR 7120.5, and NPR 8715.3 named, not quoted; reconstructed reference notes, not NASA guidance, and no NASA endorsement."

---

- # NASA Risk Management Handbook (NASA/SP-2011-3422)

- **Source**: NASA (US Government work, public domain) | **Chapters**: 10

- ## When to use

- Use this skill when designing or evaluating a risk management process for a programme, project, or system with defined performance requirements across safety, technical, cost, and schedule domains. It is the authoritative NASA reference for both pre-decision risk-informed alternative selection (RIDM) and post-decision implementation risk management (CRM). Also use when writing or reviewing Risk Management Plans, Technical Basis for Deliberation documents, Risk-Informed Selection Reports, or any artefact that must comply with NPR 8000.4A.

- **Prerequisites:** none — plain Markdown; no MCP server, API key, or licence tier needed at runtime.

+ # NASA Risk Management Handbook, Version 2.0

- ## How to Use This Skill

- - **Without arguments** — load the core frameworks below.

- - **With a topic** — ask about risk tolerances, performance commitments, risk scenario diagrams, CRM Plan step, burn-down schedules, individual risk statements, or any other topic; I read the relevant chapter.

- - **With a chapter** — ask for `ch05` (RIDM Part 3) or `ch07` (CRM Identify and Analyze).

+ **Source:** US Government work, public domain (17 U.S.C. 105): NASA Risk Management Handbook, Version 2.0 (November 2024), NASA/SP-20240014019 (Part 1) and NASA/SP-20240014326 (Part 2). Terms and vetting: [LICENSE](LICENSE).

- Supporting files: `glossary.md`, `patterns.md`, `cheatsheet.md`.

+ ## When to use

- ## Core Frameworks & Mental Models

+ Use this skill for questions about NASA risk-informed decision making (RIDM), continuous risk management (CRM), and risk leadership: setting risk posture and tolerances, running an Analysis of Alternatives, writing or reviewing a Risk Management Plan, classifying risks against tolerances, or selecting risk responses. It does not cover domain PRA methods (fault trees, event trees, Bayesian inference); those stay in `nasa-pra`.

- ### The Integrated RM Framework: RIDM + CRM

+ **Prerequisites:** none, plain Markdown; no MCP server, API key, or licence tier needed at runtime.

- NASA Risk Management = RIDM + CRM operating together within every organisational unit throughout the full programme/project life cycle.

+ ## How to use this skill

- **RIDM** (Risk-Informed Decision Making) answers: *Which alternative should we implement?*

- - Part 1: Identify alternatives (objectives hierarchy → performance measures → feasible alternatives)

- - Part 2: Risk analysis (multidisciplinary probabilistic analysis → Technical Basis for Deliberation)

- - Part 3: Risk-informed selection (performance commitments → deliberation → Risk-Informed Selection Report)

+ - **With no arguments**, read Core Frameworks below.

+ - **For a topic**, use the Topic Index, then read the linked chapter.

+ - **For a life-cycle question** (which process at which stage), use the Chapter Index.

+ - **For a term**, use [glossary.md](glossary.md).

+ - **For a decision rule** (steps, statement formats, classification logic), use [cheatsheet.md](cheatsheet.md).

+ - **For a leadership or graded-approach move**, use [patterns.md](patterns.md).

- **CRM** (Continuous Risk Management) answers: *How do we manage risk during implementation?*

- - Six steps: Identify → Analyze → Plan → Track → Control → Communicate & Document

- - Seeded by RIDM's risk analysis of the selected alternative

- - Feeds back into RIDM when conditions require requirements rebaselining

+ ## Core Frameworks & Mental Models

- ### The Four Mission Execution Domains

- Every performance shortfall maps to one or more of: **Safety, Technical, Cost, Schedule**.

+ ### Objectives-Driven Risk Management (ODRM)

- ### RIDM: Performance Commitments

- A performance commitment is a performance measure value at a defined risk tolerance percentile, so that the probability of failure to meet the commitment is equal across all alternatives. This enables *risk-normalised comparison* — comparing what each alternative can achieve at equal probability of success.

+ Risk is the potential for shortfalls against explicitly established objectives; objectives flow down from NASA strategic goals through programs, projects, and institutions, and risk postures flow down in tandem. Aggregate risk to each objective, not a list of items, is the thing assessed and judged. Analysis and classification are separate steps: objective distributions first, tolerance comparison second, displays (stoplight, 3x3, 5x5) anchored to markers and tolerances last.

- **Setting commitments:**

- 1. Set risk tolerances for each performance measure (before seeing results)

- 2. Order performance measures from lowest to highest risk tolerance

- 3. Sequentially condition commitments on prior measures being met

- 4. The resulting commitment chart is the primary input to deliberation

+ ### Risk Leadership

- ### CRM: Individual Risk Statement Format

- ```

- Given that [CONDITION: current fact-based situation],

- there is a possibility of [DEPARTURE: future change from baseline]

- adversely impacting [ASSET: affected portfolio element],

- thereby leading to [CONSEQUENCE: inability to meet performance requirement].

- ```

- CONSEQUENCE must be written without regard to potential mitigations.

+ Leaders define and communicate objectives and posture, translate posture into per-objective Risk Tolerance Levels, empower managers inside those limits, and keep risk information flowing up, down, and sideways. Desired outcomes: risk balanced against benefit and opportunity, low process burden, decision velocity. Decision robustness is the standard: enough evidence and uncertainty characterization that the choice is insensitive to credible perturbations.

- ### CRM: Six Risk Disposition Types

- - **Accept**: Performance risks all within tolerance; document assumptions

- - **Mitigate**: Positive action — departure prevention or consequence reduction

- - **Watch**: Monitoring plan for risk driver observables; no baseline change

- - **Research**: Investigation plan to reduce epistemic uncertainty about a driver

- - **Elevate**: Transfer management to next higher level; last resort

- - **Close**: Risk drivers no longer significant; bookkeeping removal

+ ### RIDM: three parts, six steps

- ### CRM: Burn-Down Schedule

- The risk tolerance profile over time. Tolerable → Marginal → Intolerable zones defined at each milestone. If performance risk exceeds Marginal, the Plan step is triggered. The schedule must reflect the actual project plan's nominal success path.

+ Part 1: identify objectives and performance measures from stakeholder expectations (fundamental-objectives hierarchy, natural/constructed/proxy measures), then identify alternatives (compile broad, prune with a trade tree on feasibility and dominance). Part 2: run one integrated risk analysis per alternative (shared parameters, correlations, U/U margins, graded rigor) and develop the Technical Basis for Deliberation. Part 3: deliberate (risk tolerances, risk-normalized performance targets set sequentially, contenders pared) and select, accepting and documenting the selected alternative's risks in a Risk-Informed Selection Report. Three modes: Activity-Planning, Activity-Rebaseline (exception-driven, inside the selected alternative), Activity-Execution (inside CRM Plan, choosing among risk responses).

- ### The Graded Approach

- Calibrate analysis depth to decision stakes. Apply bounding analysis first; escalate to full probabilistic methods only where the decision is sensitive to uncertainties. Risk Scenario Diagrams (RSDs) are developed at the level of detail warranted by strategic criticality — from simple two-pathway diagrams to fully branched event trees.

+ ### CRM: five steps plus communicate-and-document

- ### Risk Drivers

- Risk drivers are uncertain elements (parameters, pivotal events, or departures) whose optimistic values would move performance risk across a tolerability threshold. Identified by sensitivity analysis. Characterise drivers at all three levels (parameter → pivotal event → departure) for maximum mitigation latitude.

+ Identify (validated risk and opportunity statements, taxonomies, leading indicators), Analyze (RSDs; probabilistic or heuristic paths; IRTL classification; aggregate integration; risk drivers), Plan (six dispositions: Accept, Mitigate, Watch, Research, Elevate, Close; options combined into response alternatives), Track (implementation and effectiveness observables), Control (evaluate tracking, correct or re-plan), with Communicate and Document running through all of it. Burn-down schedules turn posture into milestone commitments; the relational risk database is process memory.

## Chapter Index

| # | Section | Key content |

|---|---------|-------------|

- | [ch01](chapters/ch01-introduction-and-rm-overview.md) | Introduction and RM Overview | RM = RIDM + CRM; mission execution domains; graded approach; NPR 8000.4A |

- | [ch02](chapters/ch02-ridm-crm-integration.md) | RIDM–CRM Integration | RIDM-to-CRM handoff; requirements rebaselining; RMP; parameter vs. scenario models |

- | [ch03](chapters/ch03-ridm-part1-identification-of-alternatives.md) | RIDM Part 1 — Identification of Alternatives | Objectives hierarchy; fundamental vs. means objectives; performance measures; trade tree |

- | [ch04](chapters/ch04-ridm-part2-risk-analysis-of-alternatives.md) | RIDM Part 2 — Risk Analysis of Alternatives | TBfD; performance parameters; model rigor vs. graded analysis; sensitivity studies; configuration control |

- | [ch05](chapters/ch05-ridm-part3-risk-informed-selection.md) | RIDM Part 3 — Risk-Informed Alternative Selection | Performance commitments; risk tolerance; deliberation; RISR; decision robustness |

- | [ch06](chapters/ch06-crm-initialisation-and-planning.md) | CRM Initialisation and Planning | RMP; burn-down schedule; risk taxonomies; performance margins; tolerability zones |

- | [ch07](chapters/ch07-crm-identify-and-analyze.md) | CRM — Identify and Analyze Steps | Individual risk statements; 8-question validity test; RSDs; Quick Look; risk drivers |

- | [ch08](chapters/ch08-crm-plan-step.md) | CRM — Plan Step | Six disposition types; tactical vs. strategic planning; risk response options and alternatives; Risk Response Matrix |

- | [ch09](chapters/ch09-crm-track-control-communicate.md) | CRM — Track, Control, and Communicate & Document | Performance risk tracking chart; monitoring streams; risk database; communication protocols |

- | [ch10](chapters/ch10-enterprise-risks-and-appendices.md) | Enterprise and Institutional Risks, and Appendices | Institutional/enterprise/strategic risk; TBfD and RISR content guides; JCL; NASA ESAS examples |

+ | [ch01](chapters/ch01-introduction-and-scope.md) | Introduction and scope | Purpose, policy alignment (NPR 8000.4, NPD 1000.0), what is new in Version 2.0, utilization roadmap |

+ | [ch02](chapters/ch02-objectives-driven-framework.md) | Objectives-driven framework | Objectives flow-down, risk types, opportunity, risk leadership steps, posture and RTLs, graded approach, RIDM-CRM integration modes, life-cycle reviews |

+ | [ch03](chapters/ch03-risk-models-and-posture.md) | Risk models, analysis, and decision concepts | Aggregate risk, triplets, RSDs, U/U risk and leading indicators, hostile-agent scenarios, PMKs, RTLs and coloring, IRTL heuristic, anchored matrices |

+ | [ch04](chapters/ch04-risk-informed-decision-making.md) | Risk-Informed Decision Making | Six steps, objectives hierarchy, trade trees, integrated analysis, TBfD, deliberation and RPTs, RISR, activity classes and tailoring |

+ | [ch05](chapters/ch05-continuous-risk-management.md) | Continuous Risk Management | Initialization and RMP inputs, identify/analyze/plan/track/control, six dispositions, burn-down, risk database, communicate-and-document |

+ | [ch06](chapters/ch06-organizational-integration.md) | Organizational integration | Life-cycle RIDM-CRM continuity, LCR evaluation, cross-cutting risk Types A and B, CORCP/CORHP, RMP contents and coordination |

+ | [ch07](chapters/ch07-application-examples.md) | Application examples | Process selection, worked Activity-Planning RIDM, worked CRM executions (project and center), probabilistic vs. heuristic |

## Topic Index

- - **Risk-informed decision making** → ch01, ch02, ch05

- - **Objectives hierarchy** → ch03

- - **Performance measures and imposed constraints** → ch03, ch05

- - **Risk analysis framework / TBfD** → ch04

- - **Performance commitments and risk tolerance** → ch05

- - **Deliberation and alternative selection** → ch05

- - **RISR structure** → ch05, ch10

- - **Risk Management Plan (RMP)** → ch02, ch06

- - **CRM initialisation** → ch06

- - **Burn-down schedule** → ch06

- - **Risk taxonomies** → ch06

- - **Individual risk statements** → ch07

- - **Risk Scenario Diagrams (RSDs)** → ch07

- - **Risk drivers** → ch07

- - **Quick Look vs. Graded Approach** → ch07

- - **Plan step / disposition types** → ch08

- - **Mitigate, Watch, Research, Elevate, Close, Accept** → ch08

- - **Tactical vs. strategic planning** → ch08

- - **Track and Control steps** → ch09

- - **Risk database** → ch09

- - **Communication protocols** → ch09

- - **Enterprise and institutional risks** → ch10

- - **TBfD content guide** → ch10

- - **RISR content guide** → ch10

- - **JCL (Joint Confidence Level)** → ch10

+ - **RIDM (Risk-Informed Decision Making)** → ch04, ch07

+ - **RIDM steps / Analysis of Alternatives** → ch04

+ - **CRM (Continuous Risk Management)** → ch05, ch07

+ - **CRM steps and dispositions** → ch05

+ - **Risk leadership** → ch01, ch02, ch06

+ - **Graded approach / activity classes** → ch02, ch04, ch05

+ - **Risk posture and risk tolerances (RTL, IRTL)** → ch02, ch03, ch07

+ - **Aggregate risk and aggregation** → ch01, ch02, ch03

+ - **Performance measures, markers, and constraints** → ch03, ch04

+ - **Objectives hierarchy / objectives flow-down** → ch02, ch04, ch07

+ - **Individual risk scenarios / risk statements** → ch03, ch05, ch07

+ - **U/U risk and leading indicators** → ch03, ch07

+ - **Security risks (cybersecurity, physical security)** → ch01, ch03

+ - **Opportunity management** → ch02, ch05, ch07

+ - **Risk Scenario Diagrams (RSDs)** → ch03, ch05, ch07

+ - **Risk Management Plan (RMP)** → ch05, ch06

+ - **Cross-cutting risk and organizational protocols** → ch02, ch06

+ - **Life-cycle reviews and burn-down** → ch02, ch05, ch06

+ - **Risk database and communication** → ch05, ch06

+ - **Risk-Informed Selection Report / TBfD** → ch04, ch07

+ - **Part 2 examples (process selection, worked RIDM and CRM)** → ch07

+ - **NPR 8000.4 alignment (named, not quoted)** → ch01, ch02

## Supporting Files

- - [glossary.md](glossary.md) — ~55 terms with chapter references, from Accept to Watch

- - [patterns.md](patterns.md) — 14 named patterns with When/How/Trade-offs, covering objectives hierarchy to defence-in-depth driver characterisation

- - [cheatsheet.md](cheatsheet.md) — RIDM vs. CRM decision tables, individual risk template, 8 validity questions, tells and smells

+ - [glossary.md](glossary.md) — definitions chapter and acronym list of Version 2.0, alphabetical, chapter-tagged.

+ - [cheatsheet.md](cheatsheet.md) — RIDM six steps, CRM five steps plus communicate-and-document, statement formats, dispositions, classification rules, warning signs.

+ - [patterns.md](patterns.md) — twelve risk-leadership and graded-approach moves with when/how/trade-offs.

---

## Scope & Limits

- This skill covers the NASA Risk Management Handbook (NASA/SP-2011-3422), a US Government public-domain work covering the integrated RIDM and CRM processes, their interaction with NASA systems engineering and organisational hierarchy, and their extension to institutional and enterprise risk domains. It does not provide procedural depth on domain-specific analysis methods (fault trees, event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference) — those are covered in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide (NASA/SP-2002) and NASA/SP-2009-569 (Bayesian Inference). It does not cover safety standards or programme-management requirements in detail (NPR 8715.3C, NPR 7120.5D). The handbook is applicable primarily to NASA space flight programmes and projects; adaptation is required for other industries or regulatory contexts.

+ Covers NASA Risk Management Handbook Version 2.0 only (both volumes, November 2024), vetted on 2026-10-28; content is reconstructed, synthesized reference notes, not official NASA guidance, with no NASA endorsement. Domain PRA methods (fault trees, event trees, Bayesian inference) are out of scope: use the `nasa-pra` pack (NASA/SP-2011-3421). NPR 8000.4, NPD 1000.0, NPR 7120.5, and NPR 8715.3 are named as the policy the handbook aligns to and are never quoted or rebuilt. The handbook targets NASA programme and project contexts; adapting it to other industries or regulatory regimes is the reader's job.