aeon-token-pick · diff
git:20260512.9addfe3 to git:20260512.a4ba040
32 added, 107 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: aeon-token-pick
description: |
- One token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run — scored on a quantified rubric,
- with falsifiable thesis, sizing guidance, kill criterion, and an explicit skip branch when
- signals are weak. The discipline is the skip branch. Use for daily disciplined position
- generation rather than manufactured conviction.
- Triggers: "what should I trade today", "give me one token pick", "scored token rec",
- "prediction-market pick", "is there an asymmetric setup".
+ One token recommendation and one prediction-market pick per run — with falsifiable thesis,
+ entry, sizing guidance, and an explicit kill criterion. Skip branch fires when no candidate
+ has both a named/dated catalyst and asymmetric upside. The discipline is the skip branch —
+ empirically the highest-EV output on flat days is no pick.
+ Triggers: "what should I trade today", "give me a token pick", "prediction-market rec",
+ "is there an asymmetric setup".
---
# aeon-token-pick
- A disciplined pick generator. Every run produces **at most** one token recommendation and **at most** one prediction-market pick — each scored on a quantified rubric and accompanied by a falsifiable thesis, position-size guidance, and the kill criterion that says when to abandon it.
-
- The discipline is the **skip branch**: when signals are weak or contradictory, the skill returns "no pick today" rather than manufacturing conviction. Empirically the highest-EV output is often no pick.
-
- ## Inputs
-
- | Param | Description |
- |---|---|
- | `mode` | `pick` (default — token + market), `token` only, `market` only, `skip` (force no-pick for testing). |
-
- ## Scoring rubric (1–5 per axis)
-
- | Axis | What it measures |
- |---|---|
- | **Narrative fit** | Alignment with active narratives (input from `aeon-narrative-tracker`). |
- | **Liquidity** | Pool TVL, volume, exit-friendliness. |
- | **Catalyst** | A dated, named event that resolves the bet. |
- | **Asymmetry** | Upside / downside ratio at current entry. |
- | **Crowdedness** | Inverse score — less crowded = higher. |
- | **Sizing fit** | How well this matches the operator's position-size budget. |
-
- Weighted total max = 30.
-
- **Skip threshold:** if no candidate scores ≥ 22/30 with a named, dated catalyst, return the no-pick output.
-
- ## Pick structure
-
- Each pick includes:
-
- | Field | Description |
- |---|---|
- | **Thesis** | One sentence, falsifiable. |
- | **Entry** | Price + venue. |
- | **Kill criterion** | The specific signal that says the thesis is wrong (e.g. "TVL drops below $X" or "market resolves NO by date Y"). |
- | **Sizing guidance** | small / medium / large relative to the operator's stack. |
- | **Time horizon** | Hours / days / weeks. |
- | **Score** | Full rubric breakdown. |
-
- ## Prediction-market side
-
- Sources: Polymarket primarily, Kalshi as confirmation. Required:
+ At most one token pick and one prediction-market pick per run. Each pick must have:
- - Above a minimum-liquidity threshold to allow real entry without distorting price.
- - Named, dated resolution event.
- - Mispriced relative to base rates or recent on-chain signal — quantified, not hand-waved.
+ - **Falsifiable thesis** — one sentence.
+ - **Entry** — price + venue.
+ - **Kill criterion** — the specific signal that says the thesis is wrong.
+ - **Sizing** — small / medium / large vs the operator's stack.
+ - **Time horizon** — hours / days / weeks.
- ## No-pick output
+ If no candidate clears the bar — named, dated catalyst plus asymmetric setup — the skill returns `NO_PICK` with the top three near-misses and what would have tipped them over.
- When the skip branch fires:
+ ## Sample output
```
- NO_PICK — 2026-05-12
-
- Top 3 candidates that didn't clear the threshold:
- 1. $XYZ — 19/30 — catalyst unclear, asymmetry weak (upside +30%, downside -50%)
- 2. $ABC — 17/30 — narrative fit strong but liquidity below entry threshold
- 3. NO on "EIGEN delayed past Q2" — 18/30 — mispriced but no dated resolution
+ TOKEN: $XYZ — entry $0.42 on Base (Aerodrome WETH/XYZ pool)
+ Thesis: ProductHunt launch May 15 + commit-velocity surge signals real shipping
+ Kill: launch delayed past May 22 OR daily commits drop below 5 for 3 days
+ Sizing: medium · Horizon: 2-3 weeks
- What would tip a pick over the threshold:
- - A dated catalyst on $XYZ (team has hinted at a launch in May)
- - $1M+ TVL on $ABC's primary pool
- - A specific committee meeting date for EIGEN
+ MARKET: NO on "EIGEN unlock delayed past Q2" @ 0.31
+ Thesis: on-chain timelock activity confirms unlock; delay risk overpriced
+ Kill: official delay announcement before market resolves
+ Sizing: small (binary) · Resolution: July 1
```
- This is the highest-value output on flat days. Manufactured picks burn the operator's capital.
-
- ## Sample picked output
+ No-pick output:
```
- TOKEN — 2026-05-12
-
- $XYZ — entry $0.42 on Base (Aerodrome WETH/XYZ pool)
-
- Thesis: ProductHunt launch May 15 + commit-velocity surge over last 7d signals real
- shipping. Narrative is agentic-payments, currently Emerging with ↑↑ velocity per
- narrative-tracker.
-
- Kill: launch is delayed past May 22 OR daily commits drop below 5 for 3 days.
-
- Sizing: medium (operator's daily $ risk floor × 2).
- Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
-
- Score 24/30
- catalyst 5 — dated launch, public commit
- asymmetry 5 — current cap $4M, comp set $40M+
- narrative 4 — emerging, contrarian edge intact
- liquidity 4 — $410k pool, slippage <2% on $5k size
- crowded 3 — some VC mentions, no newsletter mentions yet
- sizing 3 — fits budget bracket
-
- MARKET — 2026-05-12
-
- NO on "EIGEN unlock delayed past Q2" @ 0.31
-
- Thesis: official delay flag from EIGEN multisig (on-chain timelock activity) suggests
- unlock confirmed; market is pricing in delay risk that hasn't materialized.
-
- Kill: official delay announcement before market resolves OR multisig timelock cancel.
+ NO_PICK — 2026-05-12
- Sizing: small (binary outcome).
- Resolution: July 1.
+ Top near-misses:
+ 1. $XYZ — catalyst unclear, asymmetry weak (upside +30%, downside -50%)
+ 2. NO on "EIGEN delayed past Q2" — mispriced but no dated resolution
- Score 23/30 — catalyst 5, asymmetry 4, narrative 3, liquidity 4, crowded 4, sizing 3
+ Would tip the call: a dated catalyst on $XYZ; a specific committee date for EIGEN.
```
- ## Guidelines
+ ## Rules
- - Skip discipline > pick quantity. NO_PICK is a valid output.
- - Falsifiable thesis or no pick. Every thesis has a kill criterion.
+ - Falsifiable thesis or no pick.
- Cite the catalyst by name and date. "Sentiment turning" is not a catalyst.
- Crowdedness penalty — if every newsletter is recommending it, the asymmetry is gone.
-
- ## Pairs with
+ - NO_PICK is a valid output. Manufactured picks burn capital.
- - `aeon-narrative-tracker` (narrative fit input).
- - `aeon-monitor-runners` (momentum candidates).
- - `aeon-unlock-monitor` (supply-side risk per candidate).
- - Bankr Submit / AgenticBets for execution.
- - `picks-tracker` downstream for retrospective scoring.
+ Pairs naturally with `aeon-narrative-tracker` (narrative fit), `aeon-monitor-runners` (momentum candidates), `aeon-unlock-monitor` (supply-side risk), and Bankr Submit / AgenticBets for execution.