git:20260810.408b2fb to git:20260810.7f5bb69

12 added, 13 removed. Audit A to A.

---

name: cash-flow-analysis

description: Analyze operating, investing, and financing cash flows, free cash flow, and cash runway for Indonesian businesses.

- argument-hint: "<laporan_arus_kas> <capex> <burn_bulanan>"

+ argument-hint: "<cash_flow_statement> <capex> <monthly_burn>"

risk_level: MEDIUM

rule_type: professional-standard

---

# Cash Flow Analysis

Determines whether a business generates enough cash to sustain operations, growth, and obligations.

## Methods & Core Metrics

- * **Metode langsung**: kas dari pelanggan − kas keluar operasi.

- * **Metode tidak langsung**: laba bersih + non-kas (depresiasi) ± perubahan modal kerja.

- * **Free Cash Flow (FCF)** = OCF − Capex — uang yang benar-benar bebas untuk dividen/utang/investasi.

- * **Cash Runway** = Kas saat ini ÷ Burn rate bulanan — bulan sebelum kas habis (tanpa tambahan dana).

+ * **Direct method**: cash from customers − cash paid for operations.

+ * **Indirect method**: net income + non-cash items (depreciation) ± changes in working capital.

+ * **Free Cash Flow (FCF)** = OCF − Capex — the cash truly free for dividends/debt/investment.

+ * **Cash Runway** = Current cash ÷ monthly burn rate — months before cash runs out (without additional funding).

## Scope & Safety

- * **Use for**: menilai kelayakan membayar utang, merencanakan pendanaan, mendeteksi "laba tapi tak ada kas" (earning without cash).

- * **Do not use for**: penilaian profitabilitas saja (arus kas bukan laba) — gabungkan dengan Laba Rugi.

- * FCF positif sekali periode bukan jaminan; gunakan tren multi-periode (min. 3 bulan) + musiman.

- * Angka proyeksi harus diberi label asumsi, bukan fakta.

+ * **Use for**: assessing debt repayment capacity, planning financing, detecting "earning without cash" situations.

+ * **Do not use for**: profitability assessment alone (cash flow ≠ profit) — combine with the Profit & Loss statement.

+ * A single positive FCF period is not a guarantee; use multi-period trends (min. 3 months) plus seasonality.

+ * Projected figures must be labeled as assumptions, not facts.

## Worked Example

- Input: OCF 150 jt/bulan, Capex 40 jt/bulan, kas 300 jt, burn 25 jt/bulan (jika pendapatan berhenti).

- Output: FCF = 150 − 40 = **110 jt/bulan**; Runway = 300 ÷ 25 = **12 bulan**.

- Interpretasi: bisnis menghasilkan kas positif; tetap butuh buffer 3–6 bulan runway untuk kondisi darurat.

+ Input: OCF 150 million/month, Capex 40 million/month, cash 300 million, burn 25 million/month (if revenue stops).

+ Output: FCF = 150 − 40 = **110 million/month**; Runway = 300 ÷ 25 = **12 months**.

+ Interpretation: the business generates positive cash; still needs a 3–6 month runway buffer for emergencies.