market-mirror-evidence-review ยท diff
git:20261019.f2424f9 to git:20261031.b286ef8
1 added, 1 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: market-mirror-evidence-review
description: Validate actual marketing exports and assess whether simulated predictions beat a simple baseline.
---
# Evidence review
- Call `actuals_import` for CSV/JSON ads, email, website, CRM or survey exports. Map source columns explicitly, give a date and market where missing, and resolve every validation error before comparing outcomes. Use `backtest` or `holdout_backtest` with independent real experiments: training observations set calibration, held-out observations evaluate it against a no-persona training-mean baseline. State the split and sample size. An uncalibrated output is directional; if held-out persona error does not beat the baseline, keep the conclusion exploratory. Only report a probability or interval with its real calibration basis.
+ Call `actuals_import` for CSV/JSON ads, email, website, CRM or survey exports. Map source columns explicitly, give a date and market where missing, and resolve every validation error before comparing outcomes. Use `backtest` or `holdout_backtest` with independent real experiments: training observations set calibration, held-out observations evaluate it against a no-persona training-mean baseline. State the split and sample size. An uncalibrated output is directional; if held-out persona error does not beat the baseline, keep the conclusion exploratory. Only report a probability or interval with its real calibration basis. With 10+ real survey answers, `calibrate` adds a PPI++ interval for the audience rate (valid whatever the panel's quality, assuming the real answers are a random sample of that audience), the panel's worth in real answers, and how many more real answers a target precision needs. Quote that interval and its assumption, not the raw simulated rate.