aeon-reg-monitor · diff
git:20260512.9addfe3 to git:20260512.a4ba040
17 added, 84 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: aeon-reg-monitor
description: |
Track legislation, regulatory actions, and legal developments affecting prediction markets,
- crypto, and AI agents — triaged by stage × impact for decision-ready output. Tells the difference
- between a comment-period rumble and a final rule shipping next week. Use for pre-trade context on
- legally-wrapped assets, daily reads for compliance-existential agent operators, or building a
- catalyst calendar.
+ crypto, and AI agents. Per item: stage (Rumor / Proposed / Comment / Final / Enforced), impact
+ (kills the category / structural change / disclosure burden / noise), affected protocols by
+ name, and a concrete operator action. Use as pre-trade context on legally-wrapped assets.
Triggers: "what's happening in crypto reg", "track CFTC actions", "prediction market regulation",
- "any new rules from SEC", "AI agent compliance updates".
+ "new SEC rules", "AI agent compliance updates".
---
# aeon-reg-monitor
- Regulatory intelligence for the parts of the stack that get killed by a single rule change: prediction markets, agent-controlled wallets, stablecoins, MEV, and AI-related compliance. Each item is triaged on a 2D grid — **stage** × **impact** — so the operator can tell a comment-period rumble apart from a final rule shipping next week.
-
- ## Topics tracked
-
- | Topic | Bodies |
- |---|---|
- | Prediction markets | CFTC, state AGs, EU MiCAR |
- | Stablecoins | Treasury, NYDFS, MiCAR |
- | Crypto markets broadly | SEC, CFTC, court rulings |
- | AI agents | Agency rulemaking, NIST, EU AI Act enforcement |
- | Privacy / KYC | FinCEN Travel Rule, Tornado Cash precedent |
-
- Topic list is configurable.
-
- ## Stage classification
-
- | Stage | What it means | Time to impact |
- |---|---|---|
- | **Rumor** | Reported intent, no public action. | Slow / never |
- | **Proposed** | Draft rule, ANPRM, or bill introduced. | Months |
- | **Comment** | Open for public comment. | Weeks–months |
- | **Final** | Final rule or enacted law. | Days–immediate |
- | **Enforced** | Active enforcement action. | Immediate |
-
- Stage is reported with confidence — "Rumor (single-source)" is not the same as "Final (Federal Register publication)".
-
- ## Impact classification
-
- | Impact | What it means |
- |---|---|
- | **Existential** | Eliminates the protocol/market category. |
- | **High** | Forces structural change (geo-blocks, KYC walls, mandated changes). |
- | **Medium** | Disclosure or reporting burden; survivable. |
- | **Low** | Process noise; no operator action needed. |
-
- ## Output
+ Regulatory intelligence for the stack pieces that get killed by a single rule change: prediction markets, agent-controlled wallets, stablecoins, MEV, AI compliance.
- Triage table — items ranked by `Stage × Impact`. Final-stage × High-impact items lead. Each row includes:
+ ## Sources
- - One-line summary.
- - Stage + confidence.
- - Impact + reasoning.
- - Affected protocols / tokens / markets, named.
- - Concrete operator action: "hedge / unwind / no action".
- - Primary source link (filing, press release, docket entry).
+ Federal Register, CFTC, SEC, FinCEN, EU Official Journal, ESMA, state AGs, court dockets via CourtListener. Industry counsel commentary as cross-reference only.
- Rumor-stage items are included but visually separated from confirmed items.
+ ## Output format
- ## Sample output
+ Items ranked by `Stage × Impact`. Final + Existential/High items lead. Rumor-stage items are included but visually separated.
```
- *Reg Monitor — 2026-05-12*
-
FINAL × HIGH
- • CFTC no-action letter sunset for sports-event contracts — Mar 31 ← shipped
+ CFTC no-action sunset for sports-event contracts — Mar 31
Affected: Kalshi sports markets, derived Polymarket clones
Action: unwind positions resolving after Mar 31 OR confirm continued no-action
Source: cftc.gov/PressReleases/...
COMMENT × HIGH
- • Treasury proposed rule on stablecoin reserve composition
+ Treasury proposed rule on stablecoin reserve composition
Comment period closes Apr 14
Affected: USDC issuer reserve mix (commercial paper exposure)
Action: monitor; no immediate trade
- PROPOSED × MEDIUM
- • Bipartisan agent-disclosure bill introduced (HR-XXXX)
- Stage: Proposed (introduced, no committee mark-up scheduled)
- Action: track committee schedule; no immediate impact
-
RUMOR
- • ESMA reportedly weighing MiCAR Article-12 application to prediction markets
- Single-source (FT reporter). Low confidence.
- Affected: EU-resident Polymarket access if confirmed.
+ ESMA reportedly weighing MiCAR Article-12 application to prediction markets
+ Single-source. Low confidence.
Action: no action yet — confirmation watch.
```
- ## Sources
-
- - Federal Register, CFTC, SEC, FinCEN dockets.
- - EU Official Journal, ESMA, EBA publications.
- - State AG press releases.
- - Court dockets via PACER / CourtListener.
- - Industry counsel commentary as cross-reference (Expert-tier, not Primary).
-
- ## Guidelines
+ ## Rules
- - Primary sources cited, not "reports indicate". Link the filing.
- - Stage + confidence are paired — high-impact + low-confidence rumors are flagged with both, not laundered.
+ - Primary sources cited. "Reports indicate" without a filing or company post is rumor — flagged.
+ - Stage and confidence paired — high-impact + low-confidence rumors are flagged as both.
- Concrete operator action per item, or explicit "no action".
- - No commentary. The user forms their own opinion from cited facts.
-
- ## Pairs with
-
- - `aeon-token-pick` (regulatory catalysts as named catalysts).
- - `aeon-monitor-polymarket` (markets whose legal wrapper *is* the asset).
- - `aeon-deep-research` for deeper dives on a specific action.
-
- ## Required keys
-
- None — public sources only.
+ - No editorial commentary. Cited facts only.