61-budget-planning v1.0.0A

Immutable. This exact content is served forever at /api/v1/blob/e9791cae686f1c46.

---
name: 61-budget-planning
description: "Lap va quan ly ngan sach marketing: phan bo theo kenh / funnel / thang, ti le test vs scale, nguong tang - cat budget (nguong cat lo), quy du phong, budget tracker va review cadence. Dung khi nhac 'phan bo ngan sach', 'budget marketing', 'budget planning', 'chi bao nhieu cho ads'."
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
  category: strategy
license: MIT
triggers:
  - "phan bo ngan sach"
  - "budget planning"
  - "budget marketing"
  - "ngan sach campaign"
  - "budget quy"
  - "chi bao nhieu cho ads"
  - "budget allocation"
  - "nguong cat lo"
output: "File .md — budget plan: overview, phan bo theo kenh / funnel / campaign / thang, ti le test vs scale, nguyen tac dieu chinh + nguong cat lo, tracker, review cadence"
related:
  - 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc
  - 00-ke-hoach-mkt
  - 54-media-plan
  - 55-scaling-ads
  - 21-audit-ads-performance
  - 07-bao-cao-marketing
---

# Budget Planning — Ngan Sach Marketing

> Budget khong phai con so co dinh — la cong cu ra quyet dinh: dat cuoc vao dau, rut ve khi nao. Leader phai biet: tong dang tieu bao nhieu, ROI tung kenh la gi, cai nao can tang, cai nao can cat. Goi `10-tinh-kpi-nguoc` de tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target truoc khi phan bo.

## Thu thap thong tin

Doc `.agents/product-marketing-context.md`, ke hoach marketing va report ky truoc neu co. Neu thieu, hoi toi da 4 cau:

1. **Budget tong va ky ke hoach?** Tong bao nhieu, cho thang / quy / nam?
2. **Revenue target ky nay?** De tinh marketing % of revenue va budget toi thieu.
3. **Kenh dang chay va ROI ky truoc?** Meta / TikTok / Google / Zalo / Email / Agency — kenh nao ROAS/CPL tot nhat?
4. **Co campaign lon nao can reserve budget khong?** Launch, Tet, seasonal peak?

## Nguyen tac

1. **Budget follow performance** — khong cung nhac theo plan ban dau. Kenh work → tang; kenh khong work → cat.
2. **Luon giu 10-15% reserve** — khong allocate het ngay dau ky. Reserve dung cho co hoi bat ngo hoac su co.
3. **Moi dong chi ra phai co KPI do duoc** — khong co "branding khong do duoc".
4. **Khong phan bo deu** — tap trung vao kenh work nhat; kenh moi chi cap budget test toi thieu (10-15%) truoc.
5. **Tinh nguoc tu doanh thu, khong tu kenh** — budget la ket qua cua bai toan revenue, khong phai con so tuy hung.

## Quy trinh

### Buoc 1 — Chon phuong phap thiet lap budget

| Phuong phap | Cach tinh | Uu diem | Nhuoc diem |
|-------------|-----------|---------|------------|
| % Doanh thu | Budget = X% doanh thu ky vong | Don gian | Khong phan anh giai doan tang truong |
| Tinh nguoc tu muc tieu (khuyen dung) | Dat doanh thu → tinh nguoc CAC/CPL | Logic, co can cu | Can biet CAC/CPL lich su |
| Theo doi thu | Benchmark ngan sach nganh | Tranh under-invest | Khong phan anh dieu kien rieng |

Cong thuc tinh nguoc 7 buoc (chi tiet dung `10-tinh-kpi-nguoc`):

```
1. Doanh thu muc tieu
2. / AOV                      = So don can
3. / CVR chot (30-50%)        = So hot lead can
4. / CVR nurture (50-60%)     = So warm lead can
5. / CVR thu lead (20-40%)    = Tong reach can
6. Tong lead x CPL            = Budget ads toi thieu
7. + Content + Tool + Agency  = Total marketing budget
```

Lap 3 scenario: Conservative (CVR thap hon TB nganh, CPL cao hon) · Base case (bang TB nganh) · Optimistic (sau khi toi uu). Ke hoach chinh dung Base, chuan bi tam ly bang Conservative.

### Buoc 2 — Phan bo tong quan theo bucket

| Bucket | % goi y | Muc dich |
|--------|---------|----------|
| Paid Ads (Performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, Zalo |
| Content Production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting |
| KOL / KOC / Seeding | 5-10% | Social proof, UGC |
| Agency / Freelancer | Theo scope | Neu co |
| Tools / Software | 2-5% | Ads tools, design tools, email/CRM |
| Campaign Reserve (du phong) | 10-15% | Co hoi bat ngo / su co — KHONG allocate truoc |

### Buoc 3 — Phan bo theo kenh

Benchmark SME Vietnam (dieu chinh theo nganh va data rieng):

| Kenh | % ngan sach ads | Objective | Expected CPL/ROAS |
|------|-----------------|-----------|-------------------|
| Meta Ads (FB + IG) | 50-60% | Lead / Purchase | |
| TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / Lead | |
| Google Ads / SEO | 10-15% | Search intent | |
| Zalo Ads / OA | 5-10% | Retarget / Local / Nurture | |
| Kenh moi (test) | 10-15% | Validate | |

Logic phan bo: kenh dang co ROAS/CPL tot → tang ti trong; kenh moi → budget test toi thieu truoc; khong phan bo deu.

### Buoc 4 — Phan bo theo funnel va ti le test vs scale

Budget split chuan performance trong tung kenh:

| Muc dich | % | Ghi chu |
|----------|---|---------|
| Testing (creative + audience moi) | 30% | Luon co dong test — creative fatigue den nhanh |
| Scale (winner da xac nhan) | 50% | Chi scale campaign co data thang |
| Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — CPL re nhat funnel |
| Lookalike | 5% | Mo rong tu tep converter |

Theo funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness) — MOFU (lead/nurture) — BOFU (conversion/retarget) — ti le tuy giai doan: launch nghieng TOFU, mature nghieng BOFU + retention.

### Buoc 5 — Phan bo theo campaign va thang

| Campaign | Thang | Budget | Objective | KPI |
|----------|-------|--------|-----------|-----|
| Always-on (retarget + nurture) | Ca ky | | | |
| Campaign A (launch/seasonal) | | | | |
| Testing budget | Ca ky | | Thu kenh / angle moi | |
| Reserve | — | 10-15% | | |

### Buoc 6 — Nguong tang / cat budget (decision rules)

**Tang budget khi (du CA 2 dieu kien):**

- ROAS > target x 1.5 trong >= 7 ngay lien tiep, HOAC CPL < target x 0.7 va volume du
- Audience chua bao hoa (frequency < 2.5)
- Muc tang: +20-30% moi lan, khong gap doi dot ngot

**Cat / pause budget khi (nguong cat lo):**

| Dieu kien | Hanh dong |
|-----------|-----------|
| ROAS < break-even sau 14 ngay | Cat kenh/campaign, chuyen budget sang kenh work |
| CPL > target x 2 sau 7 ngay test | Pause, thay creative/audience truoc khi bat lai |
| Frequency > 4 | Audience saturation — dung scale, refresh creative |
| Spend > 110% ke hoach thang | Cap daily budget, review lai phan bo |

Vi du CPL rule hang tuan (nganh dich vu local — can chinh theo AOV cua ban): CPL < 12K & freq < 2.0 → WIN, scale +20-30% · 12-15K → acceptable, theo doi · 15-18K & freq 2.0-2.5 → optimize, thay creative · > 18K & freq > 2.5 → PAUSE, replace.

**Khong bao gio tang budget khi CPL dang xau** — fix creative/tracking truoc.

### Buoc 7 — Tracker va review cadence

Budget tracker theo thang:

| Thang | Budget plan | Thuc chi | Variance | ROAS/ROI | Ghi chu |
|-------|------------|----------|----------|----------|---------|
| Thang 1 | | | | | |
| Thang 2 | | | | | |
| Thang 3 | | | | | |
| Tong quy | | | | | |

Review cadence:

| Nhip | Viec | Output |
|------|------|--------|
| Hang tuan | Xem CPL/ROAS tung kenh — ap decision rules Buoc 6 | Dieu chinh ngay neu cham nguong |
| Hang thang | Review tong phan bo, budget reconciliation plan vs actual | Rebalance cho thang sau |
| Hang quy | Review chien luoc phan bo tong the, LTV:CAC | Dieu chinh strategy |

Suc khoe don vi kinh te — LTV:CAC:

| Ti le | Y nghia | Hanh dong |
|-------|---------|-----------|
| < 1:1 | Dang lo tren moi khach | Dung scale, fix product/price |
| 1:1 → 3:1 | Hoa von den kha thi | Toi uu conversion, tang AOV |
| > 3:1 | Healthy | Bat dau scale |
| > 5:1 | Rat tot | Tang ngan sach ads manh |

## Cau truc ket qua

Ten file: `budget-plan-[ten-thuong-hieu]-[YYYYMMDD].md` — gom: I. Budget overview (tong, revenue target, marketing % of revenue, ky) · II. Phan bo bucket · III. Phan bo kenh · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Phan bo campaign/thang · VI. Decision rules + nguong cat lo · VII. Tracker · VIII. Review cadence.

## Lien ket skill

- `10-tinh-kpi-nguoc`: tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target — chay truoc buoc phan bo.
- `00-ke-hoach-mkt`: budget plan la Phan 4 chi tiet hoa cua ke hoach tong.
- `54-media-plan`: trien khai budget ads thanh media plan cu the theo campaign/adset.
- `55-scaling-ads`: quy trinh scale khi cham nguong tang budget.
- `21-audit-ads-performance`: audit khi kenh cham nguong cat lo lien tuc.
- `07-bao-cao-marketing`: budget reconciliation trong report thang.

## Checklist chat luong

- [ ] Budget tinh nguoc tu revenue target, co 3 scenario
- [ ] Co du 3 lop phan bo: bucket → kenh → campaign/thang
- [ ] Ti le test vs scale ro rang (Testing 30 / Scale 50 / Retarget 15 / LAL 5)
- [ ] Reserve 10-15% duoc giu lai, khong allocate truoc
- [ ] Nguong tang va nguong cat lo co con so cu the (ROAS, CPL, frequency, so ngay)
- [ ] Kenh moi chi nhan budget test 10-15%
- [ ] Moi dong budget co KPI do duoc di kem
- [ ] Co tracker plan vs actual theo thang
- [ ] Review cadence tuan/thang/quy co output ro
- [ ] LTV:CAC duoc kiem tra truoc khi quyet dinh scale