1 added, 0 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: estimation
+ shapes: [estimation]
description: >
Bound it before you build it. Use when a decision is blocked by "we don't have
data", an estimate looks suspiciously precise, someone asks "is this even
feasible?", "how much capacity do we need?", "will this scale?", or a claimed
number has never been cross-checked by a second method.
---
# Estimation
**Problem shape:** a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no
measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket.
The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits
derived before methods are chosen.
## Relevant geniuses
| Agent | Use when |
|---|---|
| [fermi](../../agents/genius/fermi.md) | decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure |
| [erlang](../../agents/genius/erlang.md) | capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits) |
| [thompson](../../agents/genius/thompson.md) | "will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis |
| [laplace](../../agents/genius/laplace.md) | priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown |
| [carnot](../../agents/genius/carnot.md) | efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?" |
| [erdos](../../agents/genius/erdos.md) | existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration |
## Invocation
1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run
`tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"` and take the top ranked match.
2. Load it: `tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>"`, then read
`agents/genius/<agent>.md` in full.
3. Apply the agent's `<workflow>` step by step and answer in its
`<output-format>`. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the
dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value.
4. Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before
the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape).
5. If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead.
## Refuse when
- The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide —
say what measurement would be needed instead.
- The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.