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--- name: estimation shapes: [estimation] description: > Bound it before you build it. Use when a decision is blocked by "we don't have data", an estimate looks suspiciously precise, someone asks "is this even feasible?", "how much capacity do we need?", "will this scale?", or a claimed number has never been cross-checked by a second method. --- # Estimation **Problem shape:** a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen. ## Relevant geniuses | Agent | Use when | |---|---| | [fermi](../../agents/genius/fermi.md) | decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure | | [erlang](../../agents/genius/erlang.md) | capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits) | | [thompson](../../agents/genius/thompson.md) | "will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis | | [laplace](../../agents/genius/laplace.md) | priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown | | [carnot](../../agents/genius/carnot.md) | efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?" | | [erdos](../../agents/genius/erdos.md) | existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration | ## Invocation 1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run `tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"` and take the top ranked match. 2. Load it: `tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>"`, then read `agents/genius/<agent>.md` in full. 3. Apply the agent's `<workflow>` step by step and answer in its `<output-format>`. Every estimate ships as a two-sided bracket with the dominant uncertainty named — never a bare point value. 4. Cross-check: two independent decompositions must agree within ×10 before the estimate is used for a decision (fermi's sanity-check shape). 5. If no shape above matches, use a standard team agent instead. ## Refuse when - The requester wants a precise number a bracket cannot honestly provide — say what measurement would be needed instead. - The estimate would be quoted without its bounds.