bayesian-reasoning SKILL.md skillA
bayesian-reasoning from deciqai/knowledge-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/bayesian-reasoning@git:20261025.cb4e537Pins git:20261025.cb4e537 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- deciqai/knowledge-skills
- Path
bayesian-reasoning/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- git:20261025.cb4e537, committed Oct 25, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jul 16, 2026
- Size
- 8,329 bytes
- Repository stars
- 13
- License
- MIT
Activate when: user says 'Bayesian', 'prior', 'posterior', 'base rate', 'likelihood ratio', or 'update my belief'; someone treats 'the evidence is consistent with X' as proof of X; a high-stakes decision rests on interpreting a test result, security alert, fraud flag, A/B result, or hiring signal; base rates are being ignored in favor of a vivid story. Do NOT activate when: the decision is genuinely deterministic and probabilities do not apply; there is no data or domain knowledge to anchor a…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Bayesian Reasoning ## Overview Bayes' theorem: **Posterior odds = Prior odds × Likelihood ratio**. The strength of belief after evidence equals the strength before, multiplied by how diagnostic the evidence is. This skill applies Bayesian discipline where people reason about probabilities informally — and failures follow predictable patterns: ignoring the base rate (prior), confusing P(E|H) with P(H|E) (prosecutor's fallacy), over-updating on vivid confirming evidence, treating correlated evidence as independent. Composes with [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md) (Bayes is the operational engine), [`critical-thinking`](../critical-thinking/SKILL.md) (formalizes considering alternatives), [`logical-fallacies`](../logical-fallacies/SKILL.md) (prosecutor's fallacy and base-rate neglect), and [`first-principles`](../first-principles/SKILL.md) (the prior is bedrock). ## When to Use - High-stakes decision rests on interpreting evidence (medical test, security alert, fraud flag, hiring signal, A/B result) - "Evidence is consistent with X" is being treated as proof of X …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/bayesian-reasoning@sha256:c7bd9cd8213d644aThe line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261025.cb4e537, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_4ybjsjysfroex6bn)
5 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Jul 16, 2026 and Oct 25, 2026, about one every 25 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261025.cb4e537 latest | 2026-10-25 | cb4e537 | 8,329 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260816.be84677 | 2026-08-16 | be84677 | 8,329 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260719.ed3f856 | 2026-07-19 | ed3f856 | 8,329 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260717.2ed857e | 2026-07-17 | 2ed857e | 8,329 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260716.fac12bf | 2026-07-16 | fac12bf | 8,329 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (8329 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
deciqai/knowledge-skills · 13 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-25 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_4ybjsjysfroex6bn GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=deciqai/knowledge-skills/bayesian-reasoning GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/c7bd9cd8213d644ae4c26a4d21a95d841f37a64f446a184bfcb9ac104eda5eaa
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.