expected-value-and-kelly SKILL.md skillA
expected-value-and-kelly from deciqai/knowledge-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/expected-value-and-kelly@git:20261025.cb4e537Pins git:20261025.cb4e537 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- deciqai/knowledge-skills
- Path
expected-value-and-kelly/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- git:20261025.cb4e537, committed Oct 25, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jul 16, 2026
- Size
- 9,996 bytes
- Repository stars
- 13
- License
- MIT
"Activate when: user asks 'how much should I bet/invest on this?', 'what's the expected value here?', 'Kelly criterion', 'optimal bet size', 'fractional Kelly', 'how big a position should I take?', or is allocating capital across repeated decisions (ad spend by segment, VC portfolio construction, position sizing, A/B test ramp).
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Expected Value and the Kelly Criterion ## Overview Two questions decide most repeated bets: **is this bet good?** (EV) and **how big?** (Kelly). Most professional ruin comes from positive-EV bets sized wrong. **EV = p · W − q · L.** If EV ≤ 0, do not bet. **Kelly f\* = (bp − q) / b** maximizes long-term geometric growth (Kelly, Bell Labs, 1956). Full Kelly requires casino-grade certainty; default to half- or quarter-Kelly for estimated edges. Neighbors: [first-principles](../first-principles/SKILL.md) · [occams-razor](../occams-razor/SKILL.md) · [second-order-thinking](../second-order-thinking/SKILL.md) · [inversion](../inversion/SKILL.md) · [regret-minimization](../regret-minimization/SKILL.md) (for non-repeating life decisions). ## When to Use - Decision **repeats many times** — capital allocation, position sizing, VC portfolio, ad spend, A/B test budget - *How big to bet* matters as much as *whether to bet*; you have a **measurable or estimable edge** - Someone says: "expected value," "EV," "Kelly," "optimal bet size," "how much should we put on this?" …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/expected-value-and-kelly@sha256:59355a4be5567345The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261025.cb4e537, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_57lzj545f5uupfm3)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Jul 16, 2026 and Oct 25, 2026, about one every 25 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261025.cb4e537 latest | 2026-10-25 | cb4e537 | 9,996 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260816.be84677 | 2026-08-16 | be84677 | 9,996 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260719.ed3f856 | 2026-07-19 | ed3f856 | 9,996 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260717.2ed857e | 2026-07-17 | 2ed857e | 9,996 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260716.fac12bf | 2026-07-16 | fac12bf | 9,996 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (9996 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
deciqai/knowledge-skills · 13 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-25 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_57lzj545f5uupfm3 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=deciqai/knowledge-skills/expected-value-and-kelly GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/59355a4be5567345f218c15d635cad82cd592b9e07df5861c375102f82a09dd0
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.