availability-heuristic SKILL.md skillA
availability-heuristic from deciqai/knowledge-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic@git:20261025.cb4e537Pins git:20261025.cb4e537 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- deciqai/knowledge-skills
- Path
availability-heuristic/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- git:20261025.cb4e537, committed Oct 25, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jul 16, 2026
- Size
- 8,172 bytes
- Repository stars
- 13
- License
- MIT
Activate when: user says 'we keep hearing about X so it must be common', 'that just happened so it's risky', 'the news is full of stories about this', 'I've seen this a lot lately so it's probable', or is making a risk/frequency estimate driven by memorable examples rather than data. Do NOT activate when: the available evidence is genuinely representative of the reference class; the decision warrants heavy precautionary weight on rare but catastrophic/irreversible risks. More…
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Availability Heuristic ## Overview The **availability heuristic**: people estimate probability by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, and media-reported events are systematically overestimated; routine, statistical events are underestimated. Five triggers: **recency**, **vividness**, **media coverage**, **personal experience**, **imaginability**. Structural fix: **reference-class forecasting** — answer from base-rate data, not memory. Composes with [`bayesian-reasoning`](../bayesian-reasoning/SKILL.md), [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md), [`anchoring`](../anchoring/SKILL.md), [`survivorship-bias`](../survivorship-bias/SKILL.md), [`framing-effect`](../framing-effect/SKILL.md). ## When to Use - Someone estimates probability from memorable examples rather than data - Risk perception driven by recent news, vivid anecdotes, or media coverage - Team is preparing for the last disaster rather than the most likely next one - Investment or resource-allocation decision follows a recent dramatic event - Medical, legal, or technical decision made by anecdote rather than reference class …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic@sha256:0d8433a5f0a68c57The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261025.cb4e537, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_7dbuj2jbp3ysia4u)
6 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Jul 16, 2026 and Oct 25, 2026, about one every 25 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261025.cb4e537 latest | 2026-10-25 | cb4e537 | 8,172 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260816.be84677 | 2026-08-16 | be84677 | 8,172 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260719.ed3f856 | 2026-07-19 | ed3f856 | 8,172 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260717.2ed857e | 2026-07-17 | 2ed857e | 8,172 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260716.fac12bf | 2026-07-16 | fac12bf | 8,172 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (8172 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
deciqai/knowledge-skills · 13 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-25 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_7dbuj2jbp3ysia4u GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=deciqai/knowledge-skills/availability-heuristic GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/0d8433a5f0a68c572a8fa857a96d58a277fd10e60ae0781c597e38daa071c96c
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.