Home / hkuds / vibe-trading · agent/src/skills/credit-analysis/SKILL.md · GitHub

credit-analysis skillA

credit-analysis is agent-read markdown (skill) from hkuds/vibe-trading: 固收与信用分析:信用债评级、利差分析、违约风险评估、城投债研究、可转债定价与策略。.

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What the file says

# Credit Analysis Skill — 固收与信用分析

## 适用场景

当用户提出以下类型问题时,优先调用本 skill:
- 债券定价、YTM 计算、久期/凸性分析
- 企业信用评级、违约概率估算
- 信用利差分析与交易策略
- 城投债、ABS/MBS 信用评估
- 利率风险管理(DV01、关键利率久期)
- 中国固收市场结构分析

---

## 一、信用分析框架

### 1.1 信用评级体系

#### 主体评级 vs 债项评级

| 类型 | 定义 | 评级对象 |
|------|------|----------|
| **主体评级(Issuer Rating)** | 发行人整体偿债能力 | 企业、政府、金融机构 |
| **债项评级(Issue Rating)** | 特定债券的信用质量 | 具体债券,考虑抵押品、优先级、契约条款 |

债项评级可高于或低于主体评级(取决于担保结构)。

#### 标准普尔 / 穆迪 / 中国评级对照

| S&P | Moody's | 中国评级 | 含义 |
|-----|---------|----------|------|
| AAA | Aaa | AAA | 最高信用质量,极低违约风险 |
| AA+/AA/AA- | Aa1/Aa2/Aa3 | AA+/AA/AA- | 高质量,极低违约风险 |
| A+/A/A- | A1/A2/A3 | A+/A/A- | 较高信用质量 |
| BBB+/BBB/BBB- | Baa1/Baa2/Baa3 | BBB+/BBB/BBB- | 投资级下限(IG/HY分水岭) |
| BB+及以下 | Ba1及以下 | BB+及以下 | 高收益/投机级 |
| D | D | D | 违约 |

> **中国特点**:国内评级虚高,AA级在国内约等同于国际BBB-,需结合评级展望(正面/稳定/负面)综合判断。

---

### 1.2 Altman Z-Score 模型

用于预测企业财务困境,原始模型适用于上市制造业:

```
Z = 1.2×X1 + 1.4×X2 + 3.3×X3 + 0.6×X4 + 1.0×X5
```

| 变量 | 计算公式 | 含义 |
|------|----------|------|
| X1 | 营运资本 / 总资产 | 流动性 |
| X2 | 留存收益 / 总资产 | 盈利积累 |
| X3 | EBIT / 总资产 | 盈利能力 |
| X4 | 股权市值 / 总负债账面值 | 财务杠杆 |
| X5 | 销售收入 / 总资产 | 资产效率 |

**判断区间**:
- Z > 2.99:安全区(低违约风险)
- 1.81 < Z < 2.99:灰色区(需深入分析)
…

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How to install

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mdr add hkuds/vibe-trading/credit-analysis@git:20260805.62b8d9d
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git:20260805.62b8d9d latest2026-08-05 62b8d9d 32,276 BA view · diff
git:20260409.27354eb2026-04-09 27354eb 35,209 BA view · diff
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Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Deterministic, no model, same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (32276 bytes)
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  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
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Source

GitHub

hkuds/vibe-trading · 34,089 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-09-27 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_bbgv4a4kusz56g3o
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=hkuds/vibe-trading/credit-analysis
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/10d206dac655b81ce1301a2858a934fe598b5adb7dec629beb18541c6a319ff0

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