research-market ยท diff
git:20261004.00bb0c5 to git:20261007.b35fc4b
12 added, 6 removed. Audit A to A.
---
name: research-market
description: Size the market, map trends and segments, and assess timing for a candidate problem space. Part of the PDLC Discover phase.
argument-hint: "[initiative-id or topic]"
---
# Research Market
- Quantifies the opportunity space around a candidate problem: how big, who's in it, where it's heading, and whether the timing window is open. Pairs with `analyze-competition` and feeds `frame-opportunities`.
+ Quantifies the opportunity space around a candidate problem: how big, who's in it, where it's heading, and whether the timing window is open.
+ Pairs with `analyze-competition` and feeds `frame-opportunities`.
## Prerequisites
- Apply the shared PDLC conventions in `skills/pdlc/references/shared.md`.
- `problems.md` from `discover-problems` (the problem space to size), or an explicit topic.
## Steps
- 1. Define the market boundary tied to the problem (TAM/SAM/SOM), using a clearly stated method (bottom-up counts, value-based, or top-down proxy). State assumptions explicitly.
- 2. Segment the market: who has the problem most acutely. Rank segments by acuity, reachability, and value.
+ 1. Define the market boundary tied to the problem (TAM/SAM/SOM), using a clearly stated method (bottom-up counts, value-based, or top-down proxy).
+ State assumptions explicitly.
+ 2. Segment the market: who has the problem most acutely.
+ Rank segments by acuity, reachability, and value.
3. Map trends affecting the space (technology, regulation, behavior, economy) and assess whether each helps or hinders the opportunity.
- 4. Assess timing: is the window opening, open, or closing? What event opens or closes it?
- 5. Flag data confidence: mark each figure `measured` / `estimated` / `guessed`. A market sized entirely by guesses is a finding, not a result.
+ 4. Assess timing: is the window opening, open, or closing?
+ What event opens or closes it?
+ 5. Flag data confidence: mark each figure `measured` / `estimated` / `guessed`.
+ A market sized entirely by guesses is a finding, not a result.
6. Write `market.md` to the initiative directory.
## Output Format
- Use the template at `skills/pdlc/templates/initiatives/market.md`. Carry the standard initiative frontmatter with `phase: discover`.
+ Use the template at `skills/pdlc/templates/initiatives/market.md`.
+ Carry the standard initiative frontmatter with `phase: discover`.
## Outcome
If `$OUTCOME_YAML` is set, emit `verdict: drafted`.
## Completion Checklist
- [ ] Market sized with a stated method and explicit assumptions
- [ ] Segments ranked by acuity and reachability
- [ ] Each figure tagged `measured` / `estimated` / `guessed`
- [ ] Timing window assessed with a trigger event
## Next Step
Load `frame-opportunities` once discovery inputs (`problems.md`, `market.md`, `competitors.md`) are ready.