research-market git:20261004.00bb0c5A

Immutable. This exact content never changes and is served at /api/v1/blob/8c842958e26dbc0c.

---
name: research-market
description: Size the market, map trends and segments, and assess timing for a candidate problem space. Part of the PDLC Discover phase.
argument-hint: "[initiative-id or topic]"
---

# Research Market

Quantifies the opportunity space around a candidate problem: how big, who's in it, where it's heading, and whether the timing window is open. Pairs with `analyze-competition` and feeds `frame-opportunities`.

## Prerequisites

- Apply the shared PDLC conventions in `skills/pdlc/references/shared.md`.
- `problems.md` from `discover-problems` (the problem space to size), or an explicit topic.

## Steps

1. Define the market boundary tied to the problem (TAM/SAM/SOM), using a clearly stated method (bottom-up counts, value-based, or top-down proxy). State assumptions explicitly.
2. Segment the market: who has the problem most acutely. Rank segments by acuity, reachability, and value.
3. Map trends affecting the space (technology, regulation, behavior, economy) and assess whether each helps or hinders the opportunity.
4. Assess timing: is the window opening, open, or closing? What event opens or closes it?
5. Flag data confidence: mark each figure `measured` / `estimated` / `guessed`. A market sized entirely by guesses is a finding, not a result.
6. Write `market.md` to the initiative directory.

## Output Format

Use the template at `skills/pdlc/templates/initiatives/market.md`. Carry the standard initiative frontmatter with `phase: discover`.

## Outcome

If `$OUTCOME_YAML` is set, emit `verdict: drafted`.

## Completion Checklist

- [ ] Market sized with a stated method and explicit assumptions
- [ ] Segments ranked by acuity and reachability
- [ ] Each figure tagged `measured` / `estimated` / `guessed`
- [ ] Timing window assessed with a trigger event

## Next Step

Load `frame-opportunities` once discovery inputs (`problems.md`, `market.md`, `competitors.md`) are ready.