kelly-criterion SKILL.md skillA
kelly-criterion from ianalloway/openclaw-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add ianalloway/openclaw-skills/kelly-criterion@git:20260215.a8dc8f5Pins git:20260215.a8dc8f5 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- ianalloway/openclaw-skills
- Path
kelly-criterion/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 1
- Latest version
- git:20260215.a8dc8f5, committed Feb 15, 2026
- Size
- 5,456 bytes
- Repository stars
- 4
- License
- MIT
Calculate optimal bet sizes using the Kelly Criterion formula. Maximize long-term bankroll growth while managing risk.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculate mathematically optimal bet sizes to maximize long-term bankroll growth while managing risk. The Kelly Criterion is used by professional bettors and investors to determine position sizing.
## The Formula
**Kelly % = (bp - q) / b**
Where:
- `b` = decimal odds - 1 (net odds received on the bet)
- `p` = probability of winning
- `q` = probability of losing (1 - p)
## Quick Calculator
### Basic Kelly calculation (Python one-liner)
```bash
# Usage: kelly(win_probability, decimal_odds)
python3 -c "
def kelly(p, odds):
b = odds - 1
q = 1 - p
k = (b * p - q) / b
return max(0, k)
# Example: 55% win probability at 2.0 odds (even money)
prob, odds = 0.55, 2.0
print(f'Kelly: {kelly(prob, odds):.2%} of bankroll')
"
```
### Convert American odds to decimal
```bash
python3 -c "
def american_to_decimal(american):
if american > 0:
return (american / 100) + 1
else:
return (100 / abs(american)) + 1
# Example: -110 American odds
american = -110
decimal = american_to_decimal(american)
print(f'{american:+d} American = {decimal:.3f} decimal')
"
```
### Full Kelly Calculator with fractional Kelly
```bash
…Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add ianalloway/openclaw-skills/kelly-criterion@sha256:277689ab2be6e3b5The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260215.a8dc8f5, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_kc3v2x67kyukacxs)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 1 version of this file, committed on Feb 15, 2026.
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (5456 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
ianalloway/openclaw-skills · 4 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-11-05 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_kc3v2x67kyukacxs GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=ianalloway/openclaw-skills/kelly-criterion GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/277689ab2be6e3b5947f660253c67e47a90ff3ae468646762e2db1157ab797ad
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.