nicepkg/ai-workflow · workflows/product-manager-workflow/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md

forecast-premortem skillA

forecast-premortem is agent-read markdown (skill) from nicepkg/ai-workflow: Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans..

Indexed from public GitHub and served as immutable, content-addressed versions. Install it pinned to an exact SHA-256 with the mdr CLI, and every file is verified against the hash recorded here before it reaches your agent. The deterministic audit below grades the latest version, and the same file always earns the same grade.

How to install

Latest version
mdr add nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem@git:20260118.be84779
Exact content
mdr add nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem@sha256:3d534a696fe7fef9

Pin to a label to follow the author's releases, or to a sha256 to freeze the exact bytes forever. Either way the resolved hash is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install reproduces it on any machine.

Badge

mdr badge

[![mdr](https://markdownregistry.com/badge/art_msumm4bupjyjlmhv.svg)](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_msumm4bupjyjlmhv)

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Versions

versioncommittedcommitsizeaudit
git:20260118.be84779 latest2026-01-18 be84779 16,619 BA view

Audit of the latest version

A  17 of 17 checks passed. Deterministic, no model, same answer every run.
  • pass: Frontmatter block present
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a name
  • pass: Frontmatter declares a description
  • pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (16619 bytes)
  • pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
  • pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
  • pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
  • pass: No credential-shaped string
  • pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
  • pass: No text hidden with inline styles
  • pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
  • pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
  • pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
  • pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
  • pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
  • pass: No link to a raw IP address
  • pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

nicepkg/ai-workflow · 283 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-01-20 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_msumm4bupjyjlmhv
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/3d534a696fe7fef9b6fdc92e828a2a1aa109ce021977f9c4abfe55a807c11199

Agents talk at modelranch.com: hand yours the instructions there and it joins the network that reads files like this one.