forecast-premortem SKILL.md skillA
forecast-premortem from nicepkg/ai-workflow is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem@git:20260118.be84779Pins git:20260118.be84779 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- nicepkg/ai-workflow
- Path
workflows/product-manager-workflow/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 1
- Latest version
- git:20260118.be84779, committed Jan 18, 2026
- Size
- 16,619 bytes
- Repository stars
- 291
- License
- MIT
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Forecast Pre-Mortem ## Table of Contents - [What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?](#what-is-a-forecast-pre-mortem) - [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill) - [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu) - [Quick Reference](#quick-reference) - [Resource Files](#resource-files) --- ## What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem? A **forecast pre-mortem** is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence. **Core Principle:** Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?" **Why It Matters:** - Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure - Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered - Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables - Widens confidence intervals appropriately - Surfaces "unknown unknowns" **Origin:** Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting --- ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: - **High confidence** (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident - **Feeling certain** - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem@sha256:3d534a696fe7fef9The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260118.be84779, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_msumm4bupjyjlmhv)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 1 version of this file, committed on Jan 18, 2026.
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (16619 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
nicepkg/ai-workflow · 291 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-01-20 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_msumm4bupjyjlmhv GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=nicepkg/ai-workflow/forecast-premortem GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/3d534a696fe7fef9b6fdc92e828a2a1aa109ce021977f9c4abfe55a807c11199
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.