ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting SKILL.md skillA
ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting from ml4t/skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add ml4t/skills/ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting@git:20260901.c415df0Pins git:20260901.c415df0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- ml4t/skills
- Path
advanced-ai/multi-agent-forecasting/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- git:20260901.c415df0, committed Sep 1, 2026
- First version recorded
- May 28, 2026
- Size
- 3,194 bytes
- Repository stars
- 41
- License
- Apache-2.0
Multi-agent probability forecasting with diversity, aggregation, and debate controls. Use when combining several agent forecasts or evaluating forecast ensembles.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Multi-Agent Forecasting
Multiple agents help only when they add independent information or structured disagreement. Re-running the same prompt at higher temperature usually produces correlated forecasts, not a useful ensemble.
## The Problem
Forecast pipelines often report "agent consensus" from several identical agents. On well-specified macro questions, those agents read the same evidence and return nearly identical probabilities. Averaging correlated forecasts gives false confidence unless the system measures diversity, calibrates probabilities, and stress-tests the consensus with opposing arguments.
## The Pattern
### WRONG
```python
forecasts = [agent.run(question, temperature=0.7) for _ in range(5)]
p_yes = sum(f.p_yes for f in forecasts) / len(forecasts)
print(f"consensus={p_yes:.2%}")
```
### CORRECT
```python
import math
from statistics import mean
def logit(p: float) -> float:
p = min(max(p, 1e-6), 1 - 1e-6)
return math.log(p / (1 - p))
def inv_logit(x: float) -> float:
return 1 / (1 + math.exp(-x))
def neyman_aggregate(probs: list[float], diversity: float) -> float:
avg_logit = mean(logit(p) for p in probs)
…Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add ml4t/skills/ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting@sha256:d942cf57d4fe38ffThe line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260901.c415df0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_rwcav6kwntdhdmkc)
2 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between May 28, 2026 and Sep 1, 2026, about one every 96 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20260901.c415df0 latest | 2026-09-01 | c415df0 | 3,194 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260528.303089e | 2026-05-28 | 303089e | 3,198 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (3194 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
ml4t/skills · 41 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-11-08 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_rwcav6kwntdhdmkc GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=ml4t/skills/ml4t-multi-agent-forecasting GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/d942cf57d4fe38ff0fc765ce862aaca5d37cb8843fe7df54cee9b265f26b9bb3
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.