black-swan SKILL.md skillA
black-swan from deciqai/knowledge-skills is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/black-swan@git:20261025.cb4e537Pins git:20261025.cb4e537 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- deciqai/knowledge-skills
- Path
black-swan/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 5
- Latest version
- git:20261025.cb4e537, committed Oct 25, 2026
- First version recorded
- Jul 16, 2026
- Size
- 9,445 bytes
- Repository stars
- 13
- License
- MIT
"Activate when: user says 'this can't happen,' 'never happened in N years,' 'our models say it's near-zero'; user is stress-testing a strategy or portfolio against extreme scenarios; someone mentions fat tails, Taleb, narrative fallacy, or turkey problem; a past catastrophic event is being analyzed and it 'seemed obvious in hindsight.'.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Black Swan ## Overview Taleb (2007): a black swan is (1) outside all prior expectations, (2) extreme impact, (3) obvious in hindsight only. Many domains (markets, careers, tech) are **Extremistan** (power-law / fat-tail), yet most models assume **Mediocristan** (Gaussian / thin-tail) — underestimating tail risk by orders of magnitude. The Turkey Problem: 1000 days of feeding creates confidence; day 1001 is Thanksgiving. Composes with [`antifragile`](../antifragile/SKILL.md), [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md), [`inversion`](../inversion/SKILL.md), [`first-principles`](../first-principles/SKILL.md). ## When to Use Use when: a risk model assumes normality in a fat-tailed domain; "never happened in N years" dismisses tail risk; strategy assumes stable environment; you're constructing a retrospective narrative; stress-testing against extreme scenarios; someone says "fat tails / Taleb / narrative fallacy / turkey problem"; a thesis rests on a one-directional trend like "AI demand can only go up," AI-capex payoff, or concentrated mega-cap / AI-bubble exposure. …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add deciqai/knowledge-skills/black-swan@sha256:102ce3627969bb44The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20261025.cb4e537, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_rzhecygdscm4755h)
4 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 5 versions of this file, between Jul 16, 2026 and Oct 25, 2026, about one every 25 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20261025.cb4e537 latest | 2026-10-25 | cb4e537 | 9,445 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260816.be84677 | 2026-08-16 | be84677 | 9,445 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260719.ed3f856 | 2026-07-19 | ed3f856 | 9,445 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260717.2ed857e | 2026-07-17 | 2ed857e | 9,445 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260716.fac12bf | 2026-07-16 | fac12bf | 9,445 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (9445 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
deciqai/knowledge-skills · 13 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-10-25 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_rzhecygdscm4755h GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=deciqai/knowledge-skills/black-swan GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/102ce3627969bb44ada628d38de0fceae3da09ade2add57803a97d6a1ffa394f
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.