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predictor-hand-skill SKILL.md skillA

predictor-hand-skill from librefang/librefang is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.

Install it, pinned

mdr add librefang/librefang/predictor-hand-skill@v1.0.0

Pins v1.0.0 in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.

Audit grade: A, 17 of 17 checks passed
Kind: SKILL.md skill
Repository: librefang/librefang
Path: crates/librefang-runtime/tests/fixtures/registry/hands/predictor/SKILL.md
Versions recorded: 1
Latest version: v1.0.0, committed Jul 10, 2026
Size: 33,428 bytes
Repository stars: 393
License: MIT

Expert knowledge for AI forecasting — superforecasting principles, signal taxonomy, confidence calibration, reasoning chains, and accuracy tracking.

Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.

What the file says

# Forecasting Expert Knowledge

## Superforecasting Principles

Based on research by Philip Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project:

1. **Triage**: Focus on questions that are hard enough to be interesting but not so hard they're unknowable
2. **Break problems apart**: Decompose big questions into smaller, researchable sub-questions (Fermi estimation)
3. **Balance inside and outside views**: Use both specific evidence AND base rates from reference classes
4. **Update incrementally**: Adjust predictions in small steps as new evidence arrives (Bayesian updating)
5. **Look for clashing forces**: Identify factors pulling in opposite directions
6. **Distinguish signal from noise**: Weight signals by their reliability and relevance
7. **Calibrate**: Your 70% predictions should come true ~70% of the time
8. **Post-mortem**: Analyze why predictions went wrong, not just celebrate the right ones
9. **Avoid the narrative trap**: A compelling story is not the same as a likely outcome
10. **Collaborate**: Aggregate views from diverse perspectives

---

## Signal Taxonomy

### Signal Types
| Type | Description | Weight | Example |
|------|-----------|--------|---------|
…

Read the whole file at its exact version.

How to install

The exact contents, by fingerprint

mdr add librefang/librefang/predictor-hand-skill@sha256:7799ce7930d197df

The line at the top of this page pins the label v1.0.0, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.

Badge

[![mdr](https://markdownregistry.com/badge/art_t34zl6dezjea2n2o.svg)](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_t34zl6dezjea2n2o)

4 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.

Versions

The registry has recorded 1 version of this file, committed on Jul 10, 2026.

version	committed	commit	size	audit
v1.0.0 latest	2026-07-10	cde7edb	33,428 B	A	view

Audit of the latest version

A 17 of 17 checks passed. Fixed automatic checks with no AI involved, so the same checks give the same answer every run.

pass: Frontmatter block present
pass: Frontmatter declares a name
pass: Frontmatter declares a description
pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (33428 bytes)
pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
pass: No credential-shaped string
pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
pass: No text hidden with inline styles
pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
pass: No link to a raw IP address
pass: No script tag

Source

GitHub

librefang/librefang · 393 stars · license MIT · pushed 2026-11-05 · branch main

API

GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_t34zl6dezjea2n2o
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=librefang/librefang/predictor-hand-skill
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/7799ce7930d197df189896fb6f22c743fc95a456b2dafc9d01b4a383654a4d9e

Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.

Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.