wick-base-rate SKILL.md skillA
wick-base-rate from agoradynamics/wick is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add agoradynamics/wick/wick-base-rate@git:20260826.3841eefPins git:20260826.3841eef in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- agoradynamics/wick
- Path
.claude/skills/wick-base-rate/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 2
- Latest version
- git:20260826.3841eef, committed Aug 26, 2026
- First version recorded
- Apr 21, 2026
- Size
- 2,832 bytes
- Repository stars
- 4
- License
- a license file GitHub does not identify
Force base-rate thinking before a probability estimate. Identify reference class, historical rate, and adjust from there — not from intuition. Use before /calibrate or whenever you catch yourself or someone else estimating a probability from vibes.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# Wick — Base Rate *Updated: 2026-04-20 · first written 2026-04-20* Tetlock-grade discipline applied to any probability claim. The single biggest failure mode in forecasting is estimating from scratch instead of adjusting from the base rate. ## When to invoke - Before `/calibrate` on any resolvable prediction - When you catch yourself saying "I think it's about X%" - When someone else quotes a probability that feels anchored to vibes - During `/decide` when scenarios get probability weights ## What Wick does 1. Parse the claim 2. Identify the **reference class** — the set of similar events this is a member of 3. Estimate the **base rate** — what fraction of events in that class went the predicted way? 4. Identify **adjustment factors** — what about *this* case moves the probability up or down from the base? 5. Arrive at: **base rate × adjustment**, not a free-floating intuition 6. Log reasoning to `memory/predictions.md` if paired with `/calibrate` ## Example **Claim:** "I'd put this seed-stage startup's chance of a meaningful exit at 40%." **Reference class:** seed-stage B2B SaaS in this sector, 2015-2024 …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add agoradynamics/wick/wick-base-rate@sha256:3fd6eccc4b85f218The line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260826.3841eef, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_wi6eu2ykaw4sgoxp)
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Versions
The registry has recorded 2 versions of this file, between Apr 21, 2026 and Aug 26, 2026, about one every 127 days.
| version | committed | commit | size | audit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| git:20260826.3841eef latest | 2026-08-26 | 3841eef | 2,832 B | A | view · diff |
| git:20260421.9b90d5d | 2026-04-21 | 9b90d5d | 2,781 B | A | view |
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (2832 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
agoradynamics/wick · 4 stars · license a license file GitHub does not identify · pushed 2026-10-27 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_wi6eu2ykaw4sgoxp GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=agoradynamics/wick/wick-base-rate GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/3fd6eccc4b85f2181ea730669703df64951742f95cc073a68ed33d1dffd38964
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.