calibrate-probability-forecast SKILL.md skillA
calibrate-probability-forecast from yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine is an agent skill: a SKILL.md folder an AI agent loads when a task calls for it.
mdr add yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/calibrate-probability-forecast@git:20260923.cbc38aaPins git:20260923.cbc38aa in mdr.lock. Pin the fingerprint instead.
- Audit grade
- A, 17 of 17 checks passed
- Kind
- SKILL.md skill
- Repository
- yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine
- Path
skills/calibrate-probability-forecast/SKILL.md- Versions recorded
- 1
- Latest version
- git:20260923.cbc38aa, committed Sep 23, 2026
- Size
- 2,127 bytes
- Repository stars
- 508
- License
- Apache-2.0
Aggregate and iteratively recalibrate probabilistic forecasts, preserving uncertainty, calibration evidence, and unresolved forecaster disagreement.
Collected from public GitHub. Every version is saved exactly as it was and never changes. Install it at an exact version with the mdr tool, and every file is checked before it reaches your agent. The main file is checked against the SHA-256 fingerprint recorded here, and the others against the fingerprints GitHub keeps for its source commit. The automatic checks below grade the latest version, and the same checks always give the same file the same grade.
What the file says
# calibrate-probability-forecast ## Purpose Aggregate probabilistic forecasts, compare them with outcomes, and recalibrate without hiding unresolved forecaster disagreement. ## Input contract ```yaml required: [forecast_records, outcome_records, calibration_rule] optional: [forecaster_metadata, prior_calibration, aggregation_method] constraints: [each forecast has a target, probability, timestamp, horizon, and provenance] ``` ## Procedure 1. Align forecasts with realized outcomes at the declared horizon and freeze the evaluation set. 2. Compute calibration evidence by probability band and forecaster, preserving sample size and missing outcomes. 3. Update the aggregation or calibration rule only where outcome-linked error supports the change. 4. Emit recalibrated probabilities, calibration diagnostics, disagreement intervals, and the next review trigger. ## Output contract ```yaml produces: [calibrated_forecasts, calibration_diagnostics, disagreement_report, review_trigger] delta_fields: [findings, evidence_updates, hypothesis_updates, uncertainties, decisions, open_questions] ``` ## Quality gates …
Read the whole file at its exact version.
How to install
mdr add yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/calibrate-probability-forecast@sha256:74b4a1b8b50a182fThe line at the top of this page pins the label git:20260923.cbc38aa, which is what most people want. This one pins the sha256 fingerprint of the contents instead, so it survives a label being moved. Either way the exact version is written to mdr.lock, and mdr install downloads and checks those contents again, so it installs them exactly or stops with an error.
[](https://markdownregistry.com/a/art_zavgwft4pkeou6s6)
3 badge image fetches in 30 days. What the badge shows.
Versions
The registry has recorded 1 version of this file, committed on Sep 23, 2026.
Audit of the latest version
- pass: Frontmatter block present
- pass: Frontmatter declares a name
- pass: Frontmatter declares a description
- pass: Size between 200 bytes and 200 KB (2127 bytes)
- pass: No zero-width or bidi control characters
- pass: No instruction hidden inside an HTML comment
- pass: No link to an exfiltration or paste host
- pass: No credential-shaped string
- pass: No instruction to send local credentials anywhere
- pass: No text hidden with inline styles
- pass: No prompt-injection phrasing
- pass: No curl or wget piped into a shell
- pass: No recursive delete of root, home or parent
- pass: No instruction to read or print local credentials
- pass: No base64 blob over 200 characters
- pass: No link to a raw IP address
- pass: No script tag
Source
yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine · 508 stars · license Apache-2.0 · pushed 2026-10-23 · branch main
API
GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/artifacts/art_zavgwft4pkeou6s6 GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/resolve?ref=yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/calibrate-probability-forecast GET https://markdownregistry.com/api/v1/blob/74b4a1b8b50a182fa7a3043aa6ddb554615d59d24b7e5ecd1ab0595ceee4d2b6
Your AI assistant does the legwork. You hear about the deals worth your word. Hand yours the standing instructions at modelranch.com and it joins the network that reads files like this one.
Guides: the SKILL.md format and its required fields · what to check before you install a skill · how to pin a skill to an exact version · where to find agent skills · keeping a team on the same skills · which agent file does what.